Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
209 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE
MOIST AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A PERSISTENT
UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIDGE ALOFT AND A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE ARE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THOSE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST CHANCE IS TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 20 AS INDICATED BY HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS. RAIN CHANCE IS IN THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING DURING THE EVENING.
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLING WITH LIGHT WIND SHOULD RESULT
IN AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

RECENT VERIFICATION FAVORS THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW MOVING
INTO THE REGION. STRONG HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND SOME CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEE-SIDE
TROUGH AND SEA-BREEZE FRONT TO HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. THE LIMITING FACTOR BOTH DAYS WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. WENT WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS OF POPS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM...AND WENT
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A COLD FRONT MOVING
TOWARDS AND INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE
FRONT THEN STALLING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DUE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND ITS PROXIMITY TO THE
AREA NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL
NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF AREA TERMINAL. STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE
EVENING. STORM PROBABILITIES ARE IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE SO NOT
HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT...WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER 09Z.
AT THIS TIME WILL MENTION IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN OGB AND AGS TAFS
BETWEEN 1000 AND 13OO GMT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
343 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-040800-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
343 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD
POSSIBLY CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.