Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
158 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE
HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION HAS ERUPTED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...JUST EAST OF THE MCV THAT WAS NOTED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLIER TODAY. ALSO ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE PEE DEE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...BUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS RAIN FREE AT THE
MOMENT. NOTICEABLE LACK OF CONVECTION AND EVEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND UPPER CSRA LIKELY A RESULT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS EARLIER LIMITING INSTABILITY AND HOLDING ON TO HIGHER
CIN.

MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LIFTED INDEX VALUES AS HIGH AS -7C TO -8C IN
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND LOWER CSRA...WHERE ONGOING CONVECTION
RESIDES. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND PULSE CONVECTION THAT WILL BECOME
OUTFLOW DOMINATED. POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS DUE TO PRECIPITATION LOADING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER 500MB
TEMPS AROUND -9C. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLOODING ALSO
POSSIBLE DUE TO TRAINING AND NEARLY STATIONARY STORM MOVEMENT.

AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND POPS DIMINISH AFTER 10PM. SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD STALL BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. HOWEVER...STRONG
HEATING WITH DEEP MOISTURE PLUS SOME CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING SHOULD HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED BECAUSE OF CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS POPS AROUND
30 PERCENT. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES. RECENT
VERIFICATION FAVORS THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC DOMINATING EARLY IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS DISPLAY A COLD FRONT IN THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SUPPORTING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 20 TO 30
PERCENT EARLY INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD BECAUSE OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNDERWAY WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE
MID 90S AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. BULK OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS BUT OGB MAY BE
IMPACTED AND WILL CARRY TEMPO TSRA 19Z-22Z TIME FRAME AND AMEND AS
NEEDED AT OTHER TERMINALS. DEBRIS CLOUDS LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT SHOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME MVFR VSBYS AT OGB/AGS...ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL IS
OBSERVED. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING BACK UP AFTER 15Z
WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
325 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-030730-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
325 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD
POSSIBLY CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
834 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE WOODFIELDS        34.05N 80.91W
09/01/2014                   RICHLAND           SC   OTHER FEDERAL

            FORT JACKSON REPORTED TWO TREES DOWN ALONG
            WITH SEVERAL POWER OUTAGES.

&&

LCV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1015 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW NEW ELLENTON      33.41N 81.72W
08/31/2014                   AIKEN              SC   UTILITY COMPANY

            AIKEN ELECTRIC COOPERATIVE REPORTED POWER
            OUTAGES DUE TO TREES ON POWER LINE.

&&

LCV