Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
821 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

HIGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H85 JET AND LIFT WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H25 JET PLUS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY. THE NAM AND GFS PLUS
SREF MEAN INDICATED GENERAL RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 0.7 OF AN
INCH...BUT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.6 OF AN INCH HEAVIER
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE NAM DISPLAYS
SURFACE-BASED LI/S LOWERING TO -1 TO -2 THIS AFTERNOON. THE
INSTABILITY IS QUESTIONABLE BECAUSE IT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY FOG
EARLY AND THEN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. HOWEVER...IF SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP THEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
BECAUSE OF STRONG SHEAR. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE H85 WINDS NEAR 60
KNOTS. THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS BUT
FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ALSO SUPPORT POSSIBLE TORNADOES. 06Z HRRR
INDICATES THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE NOON TO 500 PM TIME FRAME.

WE USED THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY BECAUSE OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE SHOWER CHANCE WILL
DECREASE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE MORE
MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. CONTINUED CHANCE POPS BECAUSE OF THE
MODEL INCONSISTENCY. EXPECT A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING
THURSDAY WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL LITTLE MOISTURE FRIDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TUESDAY...WITH COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS DOMINATING THROUGH 12/00Z THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVING.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH WSR-88D
NETWORK SHOWING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN GA TOWARD AGS/DNL. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO INCREASE
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH FURTHER INCREASES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BY
15Z AT ALL SITES. LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EARLIER THIS MORNING
HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR IN MANY AREAS. LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN THE CONCERN...HOWEVER TIMING
UNCERTAINTY HAS KEPT MENTION OUT OF TAFS ATTM WITH BEST POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 16Z AND 22Z. WITH THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
DEVELOP THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. WIND
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE AROUND 50
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED WIND SHEAR FOR ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING
WITH DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE IN WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
VFR BY 12/01Z AT CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL AND 12/02Z OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

77

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
949 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

GAZ040-063-064-SCZ015-018-020-021-025-026-121500-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-LANCASTER-MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-
EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-
949 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 2 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARD.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
AFTER 10 AM TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

GAZ065-077-SCZ016-022-027>031-035>038-041-121500-
RICHMOND-BURKE-CHESTERFIELD-KERSHAW-LEXINGTON-RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-
SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-BAMBERG-
949 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARD.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
AROUND MIDDAY TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.