Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Billings, MT

072 
WWUS85 KBYZ 152044
RFWBYZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
244 PM MDT WED OCT 15 2014

MTZ123>129-160600-
/O.CON.KBYZ.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-141016T0600Z/
GALLATIN NATIONAL FOREST-WHEATLAND COUNTY/SWEET GRASS COUNTY-
STILLWATER COUNTY-BEARTOOTH RANGER DISTRICT CUSTER NATIONAL FOREST-
GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY/MUSSELSHELL COUNTY-YELLOWSTONE COUNTY-
CROW INDIAN RESERVATION/BIG HORN CANYON REC AREA-
244 PM MDT WED OCT 15 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
BELOW 6000 FEET...

* IMPACTS: LOW HUMIDITIES...WARM TEMPERATURES... STRONG GUSTY
  WINDS...AND WIND SHIFT WITH A COLD FRONT WILL CREATE ERRATIC
  FIRE BEHAVIOR.

* AFFECTED AREA: 
  IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT FIRE ZONES...123...124...125...126...127
                                   128.
  IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY FIRE ZONE....129.

* COUNTIES AFFECTED: 
  IN CENTRAL MT...GOLDEN VALLEY...MUSSELSHELL...WHEATLAND.
  IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT...BIG HORN...CARBON...PARK...STILLWATER
                        SWEET GRASS...YELLOWSTONE.
  IN SOUTHWEST MT...GALLATIN.

* COLD FRONT: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE 
  THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH 
  LIVINGSTON AROUND 5 PM AND BILLINGS AROUND 8 PM.

* WIND: SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH 
  AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST 
  BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH AT TIMES.

* HUMIDITY: 15 TO 25 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURES: IN THE 60S AND 70S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

807 
WWUS85 KBYZ 160206
RFWBYZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
806 PM MDT WED OCT 15 2014

MTZ123>129-160315-
/O.CAN.KBYZ.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-141016T0600Z/
GALLATIN NATIONAL FOREST-WHEATLAND COUNTY/SWEET GRASS COUNTY-
STILLWATER COUNTY-BEARTOOTH RANGER DISTRICT CUSTER NATIONAL FOREST-
GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY/MUSSELSHELL COUNTY-YELLOWSTONE COUNTY-
CROW INDIAN RESERVATION/BIG HORN CANYON REC AREA-
806 PM MDT WED OCT 15 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BILLINGS HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING.

THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE ABOVE FIRE WEATHER ZONES.
HUMIDITIES HAVE RISEN ABOVE 25 PERCENT AND FOR MOST AREAS ABOVE 30
PERCENT THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT TIMES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING
AND THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
848 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014

.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR REGION TONIGHT...
BRINGING US A DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT...BUT AS HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO FALL FROM THE WEST WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD IN
THE SW FLOW. PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST...IN RESPONSE TO TROF OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST...HAS ALLOWED WINDS AT BIG TIMBER AND THE
LIVINGSTON AIRPORT TO SHIFT EASTERLY. SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS REMAIN
AT THE LIVINGSTON DOT SITES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRESSURE
FALLS LIFTING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MT LATE TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A SHIFT BACK TO SW WINDS AT THESE AIRPORT SITES...THOUGH
WITH SPEEDS MUCH LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. LEE SIDE TROFFING WILL
DEEPEN TOMORROW FOR A FURTHER INCREASE IN SW-W WINDS ALONG OUR
WESTERN FOOTHILLS. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THESE EXPECTED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...TOMORROW WILL BE A VERY WARM
PREFRONTAL DAY ESPECIALLY IN OUR CENTRAL AND EAST. HAVE RAISED
TEMPS A BIT IN SPOTS INCLUDING SHERIDAN WHICH COULD PUSH A RECORD
HIGH AGAIN TOMORROW. SHR MISSED A RECORD TODAY BY ONE DEGREE.
PACIFIC FRONT WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW EVENING. JKL

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS
THINGS COVERED WELL SO DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING WILL HOLD IN PLACE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM BILLINGS WESTWARD. SATELLITE
SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES EASTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH WEDNESDAYS TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF OREGON AND IDAHO AND THESE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS ALONG WITH A DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. A SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA DURING THE DAY AND AS IT MOVES
TO OUR NORTHEAST...IT WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MIX
OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING...COMPRESSIONAL PRE-FRONTAL WARMER LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
BET SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL MAKE IT INTO THE 70S. ALTHOUGH
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S...BELIEVE CLOUD COVER MAY HELP TO HOLD OVERNIGHT MOISTURE IN
THE GRASSES JUST A BIT BETTER. ALSO...HUMIDITIES LOOK TO STAY
ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE MORNING AND AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON
SO THE THE WINDOW FOR LOWER HUMIDITIES LOOKS TO BE SHORT. AS A
RESULT...HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY FIRE HIGHLIGHTS WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT A SLIGHT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LIVINGSTON-BILLINGS-BAKER LINE.

EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT NIGHT
WEDNESDAY WITH A SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE DAY THURSDAY.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL QUICKLY SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING LEAVING OUR AREA DRY WITH BLUSTERY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

FRI AND SAT WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. HIGHS BY
SAT WILL LIKELY REACH 70 F ONCE AGAIN OVER PARTS OF THE AREA BASED
ON THE 12 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH STILL
LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION SAT...BUT WE LEFT A DRY FORECAST IN PLAY
FOR NOW AS LARGE-SCALE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. SCHULTZ

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
AREA TO START NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS COMES MORE QUIET WEATHER AND
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO BE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 30S FOR LOWS. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS OFF THE MOUNTAINS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL WEATHER
SHOULD BE PLEASANT.

REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. CLOUD COVER MAY THIN SOME
TONIGHT...ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT INCLUDING THE KLVM VICINITY...BUT INCREASE AGAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS
POSSIBLE. BT
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051/076 045/062 037/064 044/070 043/067 043/071 045/069
    00/B    20/U    00/U    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 047/074 039/058 033/065 043/068 041/065 041/069 045/067
    02/T    31/B    00/B    01/B    10/U    00/U    01/U
HDN 044/079 043/063 036/066 040/072 041/069 039/072 042/070
    00/B    20/U    00/U    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 044/079 045/062 036/064 039/069 043/066 041/070 042/068
    00/B    21/N    00/U    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U
4BQ 044/081 044/061 035/064 038/068 041/067 040/071 042/069
    00/U    00/N    00/U    00/B    00/U    00/U    10/U
BHK 042/078 045/059 033/060 033/062 040/063 036/066 039/065
    00/U    21/N    00/U    00/B    10/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 043/083 042/060 032/063 037/070 038/067 036/071 040/070
    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    10/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1110 AM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-151715-
SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-
FALLON-NORTHERN STILLWATER-YELLOWSTONE-POWDER RIVER-CARTER-
SOUTHERN BIG HORN-EASTERN CARBON-NORTHERN PARK-
NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-RED LODGE FOOTHILLS-
NORTHERN BIG HORN-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-JUDITH GAP-PARADISE VALLEY-
LIVINGSTON AREA-BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-
CRAZY MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST BIG HORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS-
1110 AM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.