Winter Weather Advisory 7, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
349 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND THIS WILL USHER IN A FRESH BATCH OF FRIGID AIR...ONE
THAT WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THE BONE
CHILLING AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES...
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM 15 BELOW TO AS MUCH AS 30 BELOW ZERO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER DAYS OF ANTICIPATION...THE FRIGID AIRMASS THAT WE HAVE
PROMISED IS POISED TO ARRIVE.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED +PNA PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL SUPPLY A
DIRECT FEED OF GLACIAL AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC...AND THIS WILL PUSH OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
ANOMALOUSLY COLD LEVELS. SINCE THIS IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE COLDEST
TIME OF THE YEAR...THE FACT THAT WE WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY COLD TAKES
ON EVEN GREAT SIGNIFICANCE. MORE ON THIS IN A MOMENT.

THE CHANGE TO FRIGID WEATHER WILL BE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FIRST 24
HOUR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...AS IT WILL SET THE TABLE FOR
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS WHILE ALSO SUPPORTING A
SECONDARY CONCERN OF MORE ACCUMULATING SNOWS.

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT STRETCHED ROUGHLY FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE
NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO AS OF THE WRITING OF THIS
DISCUSSION...AND AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...THE SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STEADILY PLOW
SOUTH TO THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER. FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERATE A PERIOD
OF STEADY LIGHT SNOW...WITH LAKE ONTARIO ENHANCEMENT AND SOME
UPSLOPE HELPING TO INTENSIFY THE SNOWFALL OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DAYBREAK
THROUGH LUNCHTIME OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL GIVE WAY TO
MESOSCALE PROCESSES INCLUDING MULTIPLE BAND LAKE STREAMERS.

SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE...AN ORTHOGONAL UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE CHAUTAUQUA
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW ALONG AND EAST OF THAT GEOGRAPHIC FEATURE WITH SEVERAL INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...STEADY STATE LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE
IN THE VCNTY OF THE TUG HILL DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. AS THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 09 AND
12Z...THE PURE LAKE EFFECT WILL GIVE WAY TO A 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
STRONG SFC CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. REGARDLESS OF THE
PROCESS...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE TUG
HILL THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING WHILE THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO
FLURRIES FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION. AS WILL
BE THE CASE WITH THE SNOW PRODUCING PROCESSES OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...THE VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH THE REMOVAL OF
SYNOPTIC BASED CONVERGENCE WILL LEAVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM
WESTERN HALF OF OSWEGO COUNTY (WEST OF A LINE FROM MEXICO...PARISH
AND AMBOY CENTER) WESTWARD...WITH CLEARING SKIES NORTH OF THE TUG
HILL WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR TONIGHT...A BONE CHILLING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES WHILE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND/OR
FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF AN INCH OR SO OFF LK ERIE...TO AS MUCH AS 3
INCHES SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO OVER WAYNE AND NRN CAYUGA COUNTIES.

GETTING BACK TO TEMPERATURES...
MERCURY READINGS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
NEAR 30 AT DAYBREAK...BUT IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY...TEMPS TILL
PLUMMET THROUGH THE 20S AND INTO THE TEENS BY MID AFTERNOON...AND TO
NEAR 10 IN MANY AREAS BY NIGHTFALL. AS ALREADY MENTIONED...READINGS
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
MID AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD SPIRAL TONIGHT SO THAT BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...MOST THERMOMETERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
WILL BE FLIRTING WITH ZERO WHILE READINGS WILL BE IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO NORTH AND EAST OF THE TUG HILL. WHILE WIND SPEEDS LATER TONIGHT
WILL ONLY BE IN THE VCNTY OF 5 TO 10 MPH...THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CREATE WIND CHILLS OF 10 TO 15 BELOW OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND
15 TO 25 BELOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS A RESULT OF THESE FORECAST
READINGS...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR OSWEGO...LEWIS
AND JEFFERSON COUNTY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A
WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THIS WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE CONSIDERED BY
THE FOLLOWING DAYSHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE ABSOLUTE COLDEST PORTION OF THIS PERIOD WILL COME TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CORE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES
DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -25C AND 925 MB READINGS
WILL DIP TO BETWEEN -20C AND -25C...WITH THE COLDEST AIR IN OUR CWA
FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AT THE SURFACE...SUCH FRIGID TEMPS
ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS
ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SUBZERO LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT EXCEPT IN AREAS
ALONG AND JUST INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES. THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL BE THE COLDEST OF ALL TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN ACTUAL LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
COUPLED WITH MODEST NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10
MPH...SUCH TEMPS MAY LEAD TO BORDERLINE ADVISORY-CRITERIA WIND
CHILLS OF AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 30 TO 35 BELOW ZERO APPEAR
TO BE MORE LIKELY. AT THIS POINT...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES FOR AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO GIVEN THE
MARGINALLY COLD APPARENT TEMPERATURES PRESENTLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
AREA...THOUGH WILL ISSUE WIND CHILL WATCHES FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY
WHERE WARNING- CRITERIA WIND CHILLS APPEAR TO BE A MORE LIKELY
POSSIBILITY.

WITH SUCH A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS CROSSING THE RELATIVELY WARMER
WATERS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE LAKES. WHILE THESE WILL BE RATHER LIGHT
IN NATURE GIVEN THE RESULTANT SHORT FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES...THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS...AND RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS OF ONLY 4-5
KFT...THESE WILL STILL BE LIKELY TO PRODUCE FLUFFY NUISANCE-TYPE
ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES EVERY 12 HOURS OR SO...PARTICULARLY
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE OVERALL. OFF LAKE ERIE...EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE
FURTHER HAMPERED BY RAPIDLY EXPANDING ICE COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN
BASIN OF THE LAKE...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY PREVENT THIS ACTIVITY
FROM AMOUNTING TO ALL THAT MUCH. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT
AREAS...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES TO BE
THE GENERAL RULE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES TOWARD NEW YORK STATE...AND
KEEPS ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE RIDING ALONG THE DEPARTED ARCTIC FRONT
SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO MORE OF A
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ACT
TO SLOWLY PUSH THE ONGOING SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/
FLURRIES TO AREAS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
ALSO SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER TIME AS THE FLOW GENERALLY WEAKENS.
EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OUT OF THESE...THOUGH THE
STILL-SHORT FETCH AND LOW CAP SHOULD AGAIN KEEP THE SNOW SHOWERS
FROM PRODUCING MORE THAN NUISANCE-TYPE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY...WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER POSSIBLY REACHING CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY
VERY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ONLY A VERY SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO OUR
FRIGID AIRMASS TAKING PLACE...HIGHS TEMPS WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH FROM
TUESDAY'S LEVELS...WITH READINGS PEAKING AROUND 10 ABOVE SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER WILL
PLUNGE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE...AND SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BULK OF THE AREA...WITH THE CHANCES OF THESE
MAXIMIZED ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AND LOWEST ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD THEN
EVENTUALLY BRING AN END TO THESE BY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
THOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY EVENING ON A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...BEFORE SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT AS
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
GIVEN LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT ON
THE GENERAL SCENARIO OF SOME MODEST WARMING FOR FRIDAY AND AT LEAST
PART OF SATURDAY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR OVERSPREADS
OUR REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY THE
EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT AND THE ARRIVAL OF A
FRESH ARCTIC AIRMASS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD. THIS STATED...
NOTEWORTHY MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THIS CLIPPER AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...AND THE VARIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES ARE NOW ALSO DIVERGING EVEN FURTHER WITH RESPECT
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND SUCH SYSTEM TO WORK ACROSS OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY. OF THE VARIOUS OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE NEW 00Z ECMWF HAS
BROKEN WITH ITS PREVIOUS CONTINUITY AND IS NOW THE MOST BULLISH WITH
THIS...WHILE THE 00Z GFS SHOWS NO SIGN WHATSOEVER OF SUCH A SYSTEM.

WITH BOTH THE ABOVE AND THE STILL-DISTANT TIME FRAME IN MIND...AT
THIS STAGE HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP POPS FOR THIS PERIOD CONFINED TO THE
CHANCE RANGE AND MORE BROADBRUSH IN NATURE...PARTICULARLY ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF DIVERGENCE. THE BULK THESE SHOULD BE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...WITH FRIDAY GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE DRY SAVE FOR SOME
DYING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...IN GENERAL EXPECT A MODEST WARMING TREND FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE CLIPPER WITH READINGS
POTENTIALLY PEAKING IN THE MID-UPPER 20S ON SATURDAY...BEFORE
HEADING DOWNWARD AGAIN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS
WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR AS A PASSING ARCTIC FRONT WILL LOWER
CIGS AND ESPECIALLY LOWER VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW.

KART AND KGTB WILL BE THE FIRST TO EXPERIENCE THE IFR WEATHER EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT WILL ALSO BE THE FIRST TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. SITES SUCH AS KBUF...KIAG AND KROC WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED REGIONWIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE KROC AND KJHW WHERE MULTIPLE BANDS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS THIS MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE BUF HARBOR AND IAG RIVER...BUT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT...THESE ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON
LAKE ERIE AS WELL. ON LAKE ONTARIO...ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT TO KEEP MARGINAL SCA
IN PLACE.

LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WITHIN THE ICE FREE AREAS CAN THEN
BE EXPECTED ON BOTH LAKES TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE MONTAGUE RADAR /KTYX/ REMAINS DOWN DUE TO A MECHANICAL ISSUE. PARTS
ARE ON ORDER BUT NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY JAN 21 AT
THE EARLIEST.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ006>008.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
EQUIPMENT...SMITH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1051 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014

NYZ006>008-200600-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1051 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW APPROACHING THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...

AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT FROM WATERTOWN NORTHWARD AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY...WITH THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTH OF WATERTOWN TOWARD DAYBREAK. EXPECT A QUICK 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THIS BAND. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSE TO THE LAKE SHORE...HOWEVER AT SNOW WILL ALSO
SPREAD WELL INLAND INTO LEWIS COUNTY. MOTORISTS SHOULD AVOID
UNNECESSARY TRAVEL IN HEAVY SNOW...AND BE PREPARED FOR A SLOW
MORNING COMMUTE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR FROM WATERTOWN TO
PULASKI.

APFFEL