Alert archive / New York / Winter Weather Advisories in 2014

Winter Weather Advisory 13, NWS Buffalo, NY

February 12, 20146 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this winter weather advisory at Feb 12, 2014, 3:31 PM EST for 6 counties in New York. It took effect at Feb 13, 2014, 3:00 PM EST. It was in force for 16 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 12, 2014, 3:31 PM EST (20:31 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 13, 2014, 3:00 PM EST
Expired
Feb 14, 2014, 6:43 AM EST
In force
16 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Cayuga County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wayne County, NY

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 191 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2014-02-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2014-02-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 33 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1080 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
33 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
53 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

198 
WWUS41 KBUF 122031
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
331 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014

NYZ005>008-130430-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0013.140213T2100Z-140214T1500Z/
NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...
LOWVILLE
331 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM
EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY
TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND NORTHERN CAYUGA
  COUNTY. GREATEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
  81.

* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND 1 TO 2
  INCHES FRIDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
  FRIDAY MORNING WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW,
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK
7 follow-up statements
083 
WWUS41 KBUF 130412
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1112 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014

NYZ005>008-131215-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0013.140213T2100Z-140214T1500Z/
NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...
LOWVILLE
1112 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY
TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND NORTHERN CAYUGA 
  COUNTY. GREATEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 
  81. 

* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND 1 TO 2 
  INCHES FRIDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES. 

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT THURSDAY EVENING 
  THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR 
  VISIBILITY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

RSH
037 
WWUS41 KBUF 130859
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
359 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

NYZ005>008-131700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0013.140213T2100Z-140214T1500Z/
NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...
LOWVILLE
359 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND NORTHERN CAYUGA 
  COUNTY. GREATEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 
  81. 

* TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN INCH OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON...2 TO 4 INCHES 
  TONIGHT...AND AN INCH OR LESS FRIDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS 
  OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 15 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT THURSDAY EVENING 
  THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR 
  VISIBILITY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$
263 
WWUS41 KBUF 131444
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
944 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

NYZ005>008-132300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0013.140213T2100Z-140214T1500Z/
NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...
LOWVILLE
944 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND NORTHERN CAYUGA 
  COUNTY. GREATEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 
  81. 

* TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN INCH OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON...2 TO 4 INCHES
  TONIGHT...AND AN INCH OR LESS FRIDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS
  OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT THIS EVENING THROUGH
  FRIDAY MORNING WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

JJR
037 
WWUS41 KBUF 131945
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
245 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014

NYZ006>008-140345-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WW.Y.0013.140213T2100Z-140214T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0005.140213T2000Z-140214T1800Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
245 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
FRIDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON...AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* HAZARDS...SNOW...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY AT TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN INCH OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON...4 TO 7 INCHES
  TONIGHT...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES FRIDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF
  6 TO 10 INCHES.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WITH SLIPPERY...SNOW
  COVERED ROADWAYS AND GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU
SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE, OR YOU SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ004-014-140345-
/O.EXB.KBUF.WW.Y.0013.140213T2000Z-140214T1500Z/
WAYNE-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...CANANDAIGUA
245 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
FRIDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...WAYNE AND ONTARIO COUNTIES.

* TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN INCH OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON...3 TO 5 INCHES
  TONIGHT...AND LESS THAN AN INCH FRIDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS
  OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF TO A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL WITH SLIPPERY...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS
  AND GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW,
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ005-140345-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WW.Y.0013.140213T2000Z-140214T1500Z/
NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...FAIR HAVEN
245 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY.

* TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON...3 TO 6 INCHES
  TONIGHT...AND LESS THAN AN INCH FRIDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS
  OF 4 TO 7 INCHES.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF TO A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL WITH SLIPPERY...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS
  AND GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

JJR
216 
WWUS41 KBUF 140225
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
925 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014

NYZ006>008-141030-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140214T1800Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
925 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON...AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* HAZARDS...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND 1 TO 3 INCHES 
  FRIDAY.

* VISIBILITIES...UNDER A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WITH SLIPPERY...SNOW COVERED
  ROADWAYS AND GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU
SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE...OR YOU SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE. 

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-014-141030-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-140214T1500Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...CANANDAIGUA
925 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...ACCUMULATING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND AN INCH OR LESS 
  FRIDAY.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL WITH SLIPPERY...SNOW COVERED 
  ROADWAYS AND GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

RSH
621 
WWUS41 KBUF 140851
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
351 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014

NYZ004-014-141000-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-140214T1500Z/
WAYNE-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...CANANDAIGUA
351 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN INCH OR LESS OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION.

$$

NYZ006>008-141700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140214T1800Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
351 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON...AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* VISIBILITIES...A MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WITH SLIPPERY...SNOW COVERED 
  ROADWAYS AND GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU
SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE...OR YOU SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ005-141500-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-140214T1500Z/
NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...FAIR HAVEN
351 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO THIS MORNING.

* VISIBILITIES...A MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL WITH SLIPPERY...SNOW COVERED 
  ROADWAYS AND GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

SMITH
058 
WWUS41 KBUF 141143
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
643 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014

NYZ005-141245-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-140214T1500Z/
NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...FAIR HAVEN
643 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING.

$$

NYZ006>008-141800-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140214T1800Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
643 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON...AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES THIS MORNING THEN
  TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON.

* VISIBILITIES...A MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WITH SLIPPERY...SNOW COVERED 
  ROADWAYS AND GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU
SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE...OR YOU SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

SMITH

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter weather advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter weather advisory went out at Feb 12, 3:27 PM EST, 4 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 12, 3:27 PM EST, 4 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
327 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DRIFT EAST AND OUT TO SEA
TONIGHT...ALLOWING DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TO
STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING AN ACCUMULATING LIGHT
SNOWFALL TO THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY LATER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A SECOND AND WEAKER LOW TRACKS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DRIFT OUT INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA
LIFTS NORTHEAST TO A POSITION JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. AFTER A CLEAR TO MAINLY CLEAR START TO
THE NIGHT...THIS LATTER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SOME CIRRUS-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OVER TIME...
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY HELP TO RENDER SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
WHILE TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT GIVEN THIS
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND AN INITIALLY WARMER AIRMASS...WE STILL
EXPECT DECENT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING GIVEN THE STILL-
WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND WHAT SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR AT LEAST
THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE AIMED TOWARD OR A BIT
BELOW THE LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT/S LOWS...WHICH SHOULD
GENERALLY RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 10 ABOVE.

ON THURSDAY...THE EAST COAST STORM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
TRACKS TO JUST OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE
DAY. AS THIS SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER TO OUR LATITUDE...CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER...THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING LIFT AND
MOISTURE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW EVENTUALLY BREAKING OUT ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FINGER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH LOW-END CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS OLEAN AND BATAVIA BY SUNSET.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT NATURE OF THE SNOW AND ITS RELATIVELY LATE
START...EXPECT ANY ACCUMS TOMORROW TO ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF A HALF
INCH OR LESS THROUGH SUNSET. AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE AIMED SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND A
DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH SHOULD HELP CAP
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE WITH A
SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST STORM. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THE GFS HAS
FINALLY TRENDED TOWARDS THE FARTHER WEST ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. THIS
WAS PROBABLY AIDED BY THE ADDITIONAL DATA COLLECTED FROM DROPSONDES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LAST NIGHT DURING AN AIR RECON MISSION. THE
NAM IS STILL LAGGING BEHIND THE OTHER GUIDANCE...AND WILL NOT BE
CONSIDERED AS A VIABLE SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST. THE ECMWF AND GFS
ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES AND WILL BE
USED AS THE MAIN GUIDANCE.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
COAST...REACHING JUST OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH THE
TIGHT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK. THE STRONGEST
FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF OUR AREA...BUT
ENOUGH WILL CLIP THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE GFS AND OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A
PERIOD OF STRETCHING DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700MB
LAYER ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL COINCIDE WITH A PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF
THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MODERATE
ASCENT ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 81. SOME WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE
WILL ALSO BE THROWN BACK FARTHER WEST TO ABOUT THE GENESEE VALLEY.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WE HAVE RAISED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY WITH
AN INITIAL SNOW FORECAST OF 4-7 INCHES. IF THE CURRENT TRACK
VERIFIES...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 81. IF
THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING APPEARS GREATER IN FUTURE MODEL
RUNS OR THERE ARE ADJUSTMENTS FARTHER WEST IN THE TRACK...IT IS NOT
IMPOSSIBLE THAT LEWIS COUNTY MAY APPROACH WARNING CRITERIA. FARTHER
WEST...EXPECT AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION TO REACH BACK INTO THE
WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND POSSIBLY THE GENESEE VALLEY.

SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY MORNING BUT
SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT OVER BY MIDDAY. THE NEXT WEAKER SYSTEM WILL BE
QUICKLY ON ITS HEALS AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL
LAKES TOWARDS SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.

THIS SURFACE LOW WILL SLOW DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. AT THE MID LEVELS A SHARP TROUGH WILL DIG
INTO THE EASTERN LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND...BRINGING A FRESH PUSH OF
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...AT FIRST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ON SATURDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
MORE NORTHWEST. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR TO MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE. SOME UPSLOPE SNOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND FINGER LAKES. EXPECT THIS REGIME TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS ALONG WITH A BRISK WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
AS COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
LOWER LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT.

GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...AS A MODERATELY STRONG TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING BY THIS
TIME...SO THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL.

THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATER ON TUESDAY...THEN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SURGE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN RECENT MEMORY WITH DRY WEATHER.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
POINT TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE LATER
NEXT WEEK. THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE OVER
ALASKA AND THE WEST COAST OF CANADA...EVENTUALLY DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN US. THIS WOULD ALLOW PACIFIC AIR TO FLOOD THE NATION FROM
WEST TO EAST. THIS MAY BRING A MAJOR THAW TO THE REGION BY LATER
NEXT WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST A FEW
DAYS...AND MAYBE LONGER. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN PUMPING A BUILDING RIDGE INTO THE EAST LATE NEXT
WEEK...WITH 850MB TEMPS SOARING TO +5C TO +10C BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY...EXPECT UNLIMITED VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

TONIGHT...SOME VFR HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTH FROM A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE CAROLINAS...WITH THESE THEN
THICKENING AND LOWERING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE
COURSE OF THURSDAY AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
EVERYWHERE THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...WITH CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF
ROUGHLY A KELZ-KART LINE THEN DETERIORATING TO IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW BY 00Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OUTSIDE
ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WHILE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM FLORIDA TO A
POSITION JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
THURSDAY...THEN ON TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

UNDER THIS EVOLUTION IN THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN...A RELATIVELY
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT BACKING TO
NORTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY. THIS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN
STRENGTHEN A BIT AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS SAID...
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EVEN IF WINDS WERE TO BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH...THE RESULTING WAVE HEIGHTS WOULD LIKELY NOT BE THAT GREAT
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER PRESENT ON THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
LAKE.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER OUT...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS
AND WAVES LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A
CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM CROSSES THE LAKES AND USHERS IN A PERIOD OF
INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR NYZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 12, 5:08 AM EST, 10 hours 23 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
508 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014

NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085-131015-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
508 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ005>008-131015-
NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
508 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DEPENDING
UPON ITS EVENTUAL TRACK...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-131015-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
508 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

Nearby

Winter Weather Advisories in New York, 2014Every winter weather advisory in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.