Winter Weather Advisory 12, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
326 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL BRING TRANQUIL
WEATHER TO OUR AREA TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE
MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE SNOW GRADUALLY DIMINSIHES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA
STARTING FROM LATE THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IS BRINGING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING TO MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK
NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE LINGERING NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE
FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS STILL GENERATING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AND A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID MORNING.
AFTER THAT...DRIER AIR AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL HELP
THESE CLOUDS TO THIN OUT.

OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS CRESTS OVER NEW YORK STATE. AFTER THE LINGERING LAKE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN
INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW THAT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES
NORTH INTO OHIO VALLEY. LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW
WILL REACH THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER A LITTLE AFTER 00Z...THEN
SPREAD QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AT 700 MB
SETS UP ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WHILE A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET
TRACKS JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE 850 MB
LOW WILL BE HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL
CAUSE THE SNOW TO BECOME MORE STEADY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT (3 TO
6 INCHES) WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH DECREASING
AMOUNTS AS YOU TRAVEL TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOME
COMPLICATIONS FROM LAKE ENHANCEMENT TOWARDS THE TAIL END SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AS A MILLER TYPE-B SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW
ENGLAND. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE YIELDING TO A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW TO THE
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
REACHES THE COASTAL FRONT AND TRIGGERS CYCLOGENESIS. IN THE MID
LEVELS A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY.

FORCING FOR ASCENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM LOW/MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...SUPPORTED BY A BELT OF
ENHANCED 900-700MB FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 160+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER
QUEBEC WILL ALSO AID IN DEEP LAYER ASCENT. FROM MID MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WARM ADVECTION WILL SHIFT WELL EAST OF THE AREA.
AT THIS POINT FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL TRANSITION TO DPVA WITH THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND ALSO TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
DEFORMATION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST AN EAST/WEST ORIENTED BAND
OF STRETCHING DEFORMATION IN THE 850MB-700MB LAYER ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...JUST NORTH OF THE
850MB LOW TRACK. THIS AXIS OF DEFORMATION MAY SUPPORT SOME MESOSCALE
ENHANCEMENT TO SNOWFALL...AND THEY TYPICALLY ALSO SUPPORT A LITTLE
BETTER SNOW TO WATER RATIOS THAN WARM ADVECTION.

THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE WITH IT GIVEN ITS TRACK THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS WILL ALLOW IT TO CAPTURE A PLUME OF HIGHER PWAT OVER THE GULF
STATES. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY DURING THE WARM ADVECTION PORTION OF THE
STORM REACHES ABOUT 3.5G/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ABOUT
2.5G/KG UP TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...MORE THAN AMPLE
MOISTURE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

ONE FINAL CONSIDERATION WILL BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS FLOW BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED FROM THE NORTH. THE AIRMASS IS NOT
OVERLY COLD...BUT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME HELP FROM THE
LAKE AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 5K FEET. LATEST NAM 925MB
OMEGA ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A DECENT PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST TO ROCHESTER AND WAYNE COUNTY FROM ABOUT
21Z WED THROUGH 03Z THU. THIS TAIL END LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFTEN
PRODUCES FLUFFY ACCUMULATIONS WITH HIGH SNOW TO WATER RATIOS.

WE LOOKED BACK AT ANALOGS TO THIS EVENT USING THE SAINT LOUIS
UNIVERSITY CIPS SITE. THE AVERAGE OF ALL THE TOP ANALOGS YIELDS HIGH
END ADVISORY TO LOW END WARNING AMOUNTS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
THE BEST FIT OF ALL THE ANALOGS WAS AN EVENT FROM EARLY JANUARY
1996. THIS EVENT WAS NEARLY IDENTICAL WITH SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
FEATURES...ALTHOUGH IT WAS ABOUT 10F COLDER AT THE SURFACE. THIS
ANALOG EVENT PRODUCED WARNING CRITERIA SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SOME NOTABLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO THE
COLDER TEMPS.

PUTTING ALL OF THE ABOVE TOGETHER...WE EXPECT STORM TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS TO REACH THE 6-9 INCH RANGE FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA...WITH
A FEW 10-11 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND BRISTOL HILLS. THE SYNOPTIC STORM BY ITSELF WOULD
PROBABLY NOT PRODUCE WARNING AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
INCLUDING BUFFALO...BUT WITH AN ADDED BOOST FROM FLUFFY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AT THE END IT SHOULD GET CLOSE. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY TO BE ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER WHERE ONLY A FEW INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

WITH THIS IN MIND...WE WILL GO WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA EXCEPT JEFFERSON COUNTY WHERE AN ADVISORY SHOULD SUFFICE.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT FOR MOST AREAS THIS IS A LOW END WARNING.

THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL END LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO MORE PURE...LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ON NORTHERLY FLOW FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MINOR AFTER MID TO LATE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-WESTERN STATES ON
THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY DRIFT TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LARGELY SET UP A DRY PATTERN FOR MOST OF WESTERN
NEW YORK...OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LAKE
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS PEAKING
AROUND 7K FEET ON THE LATEST 00Z GFS GUIDANCE. EVEN SO...THE
PERSISTENCE OF WSW FLOW OVER THE LAKE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT MAY SUPPORT A DECENT LAKE EFFECT EVENT FOR THE
TUG HILL REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 20S.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL
A WIDE SPREAD IN SPECIFIC MODEL SOLUTIONS. IT APPEARS THE 12Z GFS IS
TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST A STRONGER
COASTAL LOW AND LESS PRONOUNCED GREAT LAKES LOW. CLIMATOLOGICALLY
SPEAKING...THE EASTWARD ECMWF TRACK ALSO APPEARS MORE LIKELY...GIVEN
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE THERE STILL IS
A CHANCE THE STILL WESTWARD SOLUTION OF THE GFS WILL VERIFY...IT
APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT WESTERN NEW YORK WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. EVEN SO...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SOME SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OR MORE A
POSSIBILITY. STAY TUNED SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOULD COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

REGARDLESS...COLDER AIR IS LIKELY TO BUILD BEHIND THE EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON MONDAY...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS
REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 06Z A FEW MVFR CIGS ARE FOUND AROUND LAKE ONTARIO AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKE. THESE CIGS WITH ADDED LAKE MOISTURE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR DIMINISHES THESE LOW
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BEFORE BACKING AROUND TO A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW TOMORROW
EVENING. HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS REACHING WNY LATE IN THE TAF
CYCLE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REACH WNY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH VSBYS FALLING
DOWN TO IFR OR LOWER IN SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR IN SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR IN SNOW.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR IN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WITH NEGLIGIBLE WAVES ON LAKE
ONTARIO. AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE. THE BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BACK TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH OF
SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ005-006-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ001>004-010-011-013-014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY
         FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
         WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LOZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...TJP
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...TJP

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