Winter Weather Advisory 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
331 AM EST WED JAN 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF FRIGID ARCTIC AIR WILL GENERATE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. THE LAKES SNOWS WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU AND THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. LAKE SNOW WILL
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT A MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
EVENT WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN INFLUX
OF COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BRING EXTREMELY COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER OF A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW. THE SNOW BANDS
WILL ABRUPTLY DISSIPATE AS A HIGH PRESSURE CELL BECOME CENTERED OVER
EASTERN ONTARIO AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL THE PROVIDE A SURFACE BASED
WEDGE OF COLD AIR CONTINUOUSLY SUPPORTED BY THIS HIGH PRESSURE CELL
OF ARCTIC ORIGIN...OVERLAIN BY A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL AND INCREASINGLY
MOIST COLUMN ON A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL
BE PROVIDED BY THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 160KT
300MB JET CORE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA.

A STEADY SNOW WILL START ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD THIS EVENING...PERSISTING ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. SNOW WILL STEADILY
BUT SLOWLY ACCUMULATE TO SEVERAL INCHES THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD
AND WILL WARRANT THE NEED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STARTING
LATER TODAY AND EXTENDING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS FOR MUCH OF
FORECAST AREA...BUT ONLY IN THE LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WINDS CHILLS WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SET UP...AND TO THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE NUMBERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...BUT ZERO TO MINUS 10 EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH WIND CHILLS
AT OR BELOW MINUS 20 FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE ARE TWO MAIN ISSUES DURING THE PERIOD. A PROLONGED BUT
RELATIVELY MODEST SNOW EVENT AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES.

FIRST THE SNOW POTENTIAL...

A MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY AND ACT AS A FOCUS FOR A WEAK BUT
PERSISTENT DIFFERENTIAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION REGIME...WITH LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DRIVEN BY NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS TOPPED BY
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. THIS WILL ENHANCE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY AND SUPPORT PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW. SOMEWHAT BETTER
SNOWFALL RATES MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS JUST TO OUR WEST...WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PROVIDING DPVA AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A LONG LASTING BUT
RELATIVELY MODEST SNOW EVENT. THE GARCIA METHOD SUGGESTS SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND 3 INCHES OR SO FOR EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES THURSDAY
NIGHT...THIS AFTER ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT AS WELL. WHILE THE 12 HOUR
AMOUNTS GENERALLY FALL SHORT OF OUR STRICT DEFINITION OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA /4 INCHES IN 12 HOURS/ THE LONG LASTING EVENT WILL PRODUCE
SOME DECENT SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH TIME. IN ADDITION...VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SALT TO WORK ON ROADS...
LEADING TO DIFFICULT AND VERY SLIPPERY TRAVEL. BECAUSE OF BOTH OF
THESE FACTORS...AN ADVISORY IS JUSTIFIED.

LATE IN THE EVENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY THE NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW IS TOO SHALLOW...BUT THIS LAYER
WILL DEEPEN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUFFICIENTLY TO
SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WOULD FAVOR AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM WAYNE COUNTY TO NIAGARA
COUNTY INCLUDING THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA. OFF LAKE ERIE SOME
ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT
THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS AWAY...AND THE AIRMASS GROWS STEADILY
COLDER. THIS WILL PUT THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH LAYER VERY LOW
AND MAINLY BELOW CLOUD LEVEL...LIMITING THE FLUFF FACTOR OF ANY
POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE GONE WITH SNOWFALL JUST
A LITTLE HIGHER IN THIS AREA...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY.

THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT AS COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS TAKES OVER AND PULLS QUICKLY OUT TO
SEA. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE LOW ON FRIDAY WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE
RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG GIVEN THE COLD AIRMASS...BUT CLOUD
MICROPHYSICS SUFFER IN SUCH A COLD AIRMASS. THE FAVORED TEMPERATURE
RANGE FOR DENDRITES WILL BE FOUND CLOSE TO THE GROUND AND MAINLY
BELOW CLOUD LEVEL. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL SNOWFLAKES WITH
RELATIVELY POOR SNOW TO WATER RATIOS. BECAUSE OF THIS AND RAPID
DRYING OF THE BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

NOW FOR TEMPERATURES...

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE FOR
THE BULK OF THE AREA WITH SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
IT WILL BE EVEN COLDER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

WIND CHILLS OF AROUND -20C ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY IN JEFFERSON
COUNTY AS COLD AIR AND WINDS FUNNEL UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP TO DANGEROUSLY COLD LEVELS
OF -30 TO -40 ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THEY WILL RUN -15 TO -20 DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR JEFFERSON AND
LEWIS COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA...THE WIND CHILL INFORMATION WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ALONG WITH THE SNOW IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING...AND THEN
DRIFT EAST SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS. LATER THAT
NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING
NOTABLY WARMER BUT STILL COLD TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT
THIS POINT...WITH A NARROW SPREAD BETWEEN GFS/GGEM/ECMWF.

AFTER THIS...MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE...WHICH STARTS WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE
GFS KEEPS THE CORE OF COLD AIR JUST SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY...HOWEVER
THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GGEM DIG A SHARP TROF INTO THE UPPER
LAKES. THIS BOTH SLOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND ALLOWS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG IT ON SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF THIS LOW REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOES RESULT IN FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW IS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY RANGING FROM LIGHT TO VERY SIGNIFICANT. IF THE
ECMWF VERIFIES WITH A LOW CUTTING TO OUR WEST...PRECIP MAY EVEN
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR A TIME. HOWEVER THIS PLAYS OUT...MORE COLD
AIR WILL POUR IN BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY COLD
START TO NEXT WEEK...WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS EAST OF THE
LAKES TONIGHT WITH MAIN BANDS REMAINING SOUTH OF KART/KBUF. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF LES BANDS WITH RAPID
DETERIORATION TO IFR/LIFR WITHIN THESE RELATIVELY NARROW ~15NM WIDE
BANDS. WHILE KJHW IS VFR ATTM...EXPECT LAKE ERIE SNOW BAND TO
MIGRATE BACK SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINAL LATER TONIGHT...AFTER
06Z..BRINGING A RETURN TO IFR CONDITIONS.

LES ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH
BANDS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTHWARDS AS FLOW VEERS
NORTHWESTERLY. FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST...LIKELY BRINGING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS  AND ASSOCIATED MVFR
CIGS BACK INTO THE PICTURE FOR KBUF/KIAG/KROC BY 18Z. THIS
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NY TOWARDS 00Z WED...RESULTING
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR/LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.
THURSDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW LIKELY.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES LATER
TODAY TO WEAKEN THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTIVE
PATTERN. THIS WILL BRIEFLY ALLOW WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS
AROUND MID DAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL THEN FRESHEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHEN
THE NEXT ROUND OF SCA'S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY COLD AIR IS ON THE WAY FOR THE REGION THIS WEEK...WITH THE
COLD AIR PEAKING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...AND NOT ABOVE ZERO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE LAST TIME BUFFALO DID NOT GET TO 10 DEGREES FOR A DAYTIME HIGH
WAS 1/16/09...AND FOR ROCHESTER 3/6/07. AT WATERTOWN THE LAST TIME
THE HIGH DID NOT GET ABOVE ZERO WAS 1/22/2005.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ007.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ005-006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ005-006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ001>004-010>014-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ012-021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ019>021.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LOZ030-
         042>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WCH
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1018 PM EST TUE DEC 31 2013

NYZ001>003-007-010-011-013-014-020330-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-JEFFERSON-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-
1018 PM EST TUE DEC 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

VERY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK THROUGH FRIDAY.
WIND CHILLS WILL OCCASIONALLY BECOME DANGEROUSLY COLD...ESPECIALLY
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ005-006-020330-
NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-
1018 PM EST TUE DEC 31 2013

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND WILL BRING WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

VERY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK THROUGH FRIDAY.
WIND CHILLS WILL OCCASIONALLY BECOME BITTERLY COLD...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ004-020330-
WAYNE-
1018 PM EST TUE DEC 31 2013

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND WILL BRING WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

VERY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK THROUGH FRIDAY.
WIND CHILLS WILL OCCASIONALLY BECOME BITTERLY COLD...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ008-020330-
LEWIS-
1018 PM EST TUE DEC 31 2013

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

VERY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK THROUGH FRIDAY.
WIND CHILLS WILL OCCASIONALLY BECOME DANGEROUSLY COLD...ESPECIALLY
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012-021-020330-
WYOMING-ALLEGANY-
1018 PM EST TUE DEC 31 2013

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND WILL BRING WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

VERY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK THROUGH FRIDAY.
WIND CHILLS WILL OCCASIONALLY BECOME BITTERLY COLD...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019-020-020330-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
1018 PM EST TUE DEC 31 2013

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND WILL BRING WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

VERY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK THROUGH FRIDAY.
WIND CHILLS WILL OCCASIONALLY BECOME BITTERLY COLD...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ085-020330-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
1018 PM EST TUE DEC 31 2013

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND WILL BRING WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

VERY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK THROUGH FRIDAY.
WIND CHILLS WILL OCCASIONALLY BECOME BITTERLY COLD...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-020330-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1018 PM EST TUE DEC 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ042>045-062>065-020330-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
1018 PM EST TUE DEC 31 2013

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1224 AM EST WED JAN 1 2014

NYZ012-019-020-085-010730-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1224 AM EST WED JAN 1 2014

...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES...

A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FROM NEAR HAMBURG
AND EAST AURORA SOUTH ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS AND DOWN THE LAKE
ERIE SHORE TO DUNKIRK AND WESTFIELD. SOME SNOW WILL ALSO SPREAD
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF WYOMING COUNTY AND THE NORTHWEST CORNER
OF CATTARAUGUS COUNTY NEAR PERRYSBURG. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3
INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY IN THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THIS
BAND.

TRAVEL WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND DEEP
SNOW COVER ON ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION. TRAVEL WILL BE
IMPACTED ALONG THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY FROM HAMBURG TO THE
PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE.

HITCHCOCK

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