Winter Storm Watch 3, NWS Buffalo, NY

494 
WWUS41 KBUF 290222
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1022 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

NYZ012>014-020-021-291030-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0003.140329T2100Z-140330T1400Z/
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...
OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
1022 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...HIGHER TERRAIN OF CATTARAUGUS...ALLEGANY...
  WYOMING...LIVINGSTON AND ONTARIO COUNTIES. 

* TIMING...LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY WET SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 6 INCHES OR MORE.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...A HEAVY WET SNOW WILL CREATE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS AND 
  MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON ROADS. THE HEAVY 
  NATURE OF THIS SNOW MAY ALSO BRING DOWN SMALL TREE BRANCHES 
  AND LIMBS...AND AS SUCH MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...LOW. WHILE THE CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE 
  PRECIPITATION IS HIGH...THERMAL STRUCTURES OF THE ATMOSPHERE 
  ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN...AND A SLIGHT WARMING WILL MAKE FOR 
  LESS SNOW TO ACCUMULATE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ008-291030-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0003.140330T0000Z-140330T1700Z/
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
1022 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...LEWIS COUNTY...WITH HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ON THE 
  TUG HILL AND THE WESTERN FOOT HILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. 

* TIMING...EARLY SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY WET SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 6 INCHES OR MORE.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...A HEAVY WET SNOW WILL CREATE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS AND 
  MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON ROADS. THE HEAVY 
  NATURE OF THIS SNOW MAY ALSO BRING DOWN SMALL TREE BRANCHES 
  AND LIMBS...AND AS SUCH MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. WHILE THE CERTAINTY OF 
  MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS HIGH...THERMAL STRUCTURES OF THE 
  ATMOSPHERE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...AND A SLIGHT WARMING WILL 
  MAKE FOR LESS SNOW TO ACCUMULATE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

SMITH

661 
WWUS41 KBUF 290825
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
425 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014

NYZ012>014-020-021-291630-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0003.140329T2100Z-140330T1400Z/
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...
OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
425 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...HIGHER TERRAIN OF CATTARAUGUS...ALLEGANY...
  WYOMING...LIVINGSTON AND ONTARIO COUNTIES. 

* TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY WET SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 6 INCHES OR MORE.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...A HEAVY WET SNOW WILL CREATE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS AND 
  MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON ROADS. THE HEAVY 
  NATURE OF THIS SNOW MAY ALSO BRING DOWN SMALL TREE BRANCHES 
  AND LIMBS...AND AS SUCH MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...LOW. WHILE THE CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE 
  PRECIPITATION IS HIGH...THERMAL STRUCTURES OF THE ATMOSPHERE 
  ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN...AND A SLIGHT WARMING WILL MAKE FOR 
  LESS SNOW TO ACCUMULATE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ008-291630-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0003.140330T0000Z-140330T1700Z/
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
425 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...LEWIS COUNTY...WITH HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ON THE 
  TUG HILL AND THE WESTERN FOOT HILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. 

* TIMING...EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY WET SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 6 INCHES OR MORE.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...A HEAVY WET SNOW WILL CREATE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS AND 
  MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON ROADS. THE HEAVY 
  NATURE OF THIS SNOW MAY ALSO BRING DOWN SMALL TREE BRANCHES 
  AND LIMBS...AND AS SUCH MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. WHILE THE CERTAINTY OF 
  MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS HIGH...THERMAL STRUCTURES OF THE 
  ATMOSPHERE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...AND A SLIGHT WARMING WILL 
  MAKE FOR LESS SNOW TO ACCUMULATE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

TMA

463 
WWUS41 KBUF 291442
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1042 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014

NYZ012>014-020-021-292245-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0003.140329T2100Z-140330T1400Z/
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...
OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
1042 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...HIGHER TERRAIN OF CATTARAUGUS...ALLEGANY...
  WYOMING...LIVINGSTON AND ONTARIO COUNTIES. 

* TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY WET SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 6 INCHES OR MORE.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...A HEAVY WET SNOW WILL CREATE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS AND 
  MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON ROADS. THE HEAVY 
  NATURE OF THIS SNOW MAY ALSO BRING DOWN SMALL TREE BRANCHES 
  AND LIMBS...AND AS SUCH MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...LOW. WHILE THE CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE 
  PRECIPITATION IS HIGH...THERMAL STRUCTURES OF THE ATMOSPHERE 
  ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN...AND A SLIGHT WARMING WILL MAKE FOR 
  LESS SNOW TO ACCUMULATE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ008-292245-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0003.140330T0000Z-140330T1700Z/
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
1042 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...LEWIS COUNTY...WITH HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ON THE 
  TUG HILL AND THE WESTERN FOOT HILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. 

* TIMING...EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY WET SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 6 INCHES OR MORE.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...A HEAVY WET SNOW WILL CREATE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS AND 
  MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON ROADS. THE HEAVY 
  NATURE OF THIS SNOW MAY ALSO BRING DOWN SMALL TREE BRANCHES 
  AND LIMBS...AND AS SUCH MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. 

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. WHILE THE CERTAINTY OF 
  MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS HIGH...THERMAL STRUCTURES OF THE 
  ATMOSPHERE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...AND A SLIGHT WARMING WILL 
  MAKE FOR LESS SNOW TO ACCUMULATE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

837 
WWUS41 KBUF 291842
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
242 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014

NYZ020-021-300245-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0003.140329T2100Z-140330T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0017.140329T2200Z-140330T1500Z/
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
242 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN TIER. GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
  ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* TIMING...EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES TONIGHT AND AN INCH OR LESS
  SUNDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER
  ELEVATIONS.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...SEVERAL INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN SLICK
  ROADS...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION
  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVY SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON
  POSSIBLY BRING DOWN SMALL TREE BRANCHES AND LIMBS...RESULTING IN
  ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW,
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ012>014-300245-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0003.140329T2100Z-140330T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0017.140330T0000Z-140331T1000Z/
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
242 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY. THE WINTER
STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATIONS...THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES.

* TIMING...FOR SNOWFALL...EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
  MORNING. FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE...SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
  NIGHT.

* HAZARDS...SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT...1 TO 2 INCHES SUNDAY...
  AND AN INCH OR LESS SUNDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 3
  TO 6 INCHES.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...SEVERAL INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN SLICK
  ROADS...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION
  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVY SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON
  POSSIBLY BRING DOWN SMALL TREE BRANCHES AND LIMBS...RESULTING IN
  ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
  OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MAY RESULT IN
  MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE ON UNTREATED SURFACES...CREATING AN
  ADDITIONAL HAZARD TO TRAVEL.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW,
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...
POSTING TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE
HASHTAG BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ008-300245-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0003.140330T0000Z-140330T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0017.140330T0300Z-140331T1700Z/
LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LOWVILLE
242 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 PM EDT MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTH COUNTRY...MAINLY ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

* TIMING...LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* HAZARDS...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS THE TUG HILL
  PLATEAU.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...SEVERAL INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN SLICK
  ROADS...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION
  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVY SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON
  POSSIBLY BRING DOWN SMALL TREE BRANCHES AND LIMBS...RESULTING IN
  ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW,
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ019-085-300245-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0017.140329T2200Z-140330T1500Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
242 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN ERIE AND CHAUTAUQUA
  COUNTIES.

* TIMING...EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT AND AN INCH OR LESS
  SUNDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...MAINLY
  ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...SEVERAL INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN SLICK
  ROADS...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION
  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVY SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON
  POSSIBLY BRING DOWN SMALL TREE BRANCHES AND LIMBS...RESULTING IN
  ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW,
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ002>005-011-300245-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0017.140330T0000Z-140331T1000Z/
ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...
FAIR HAVEN...BATAVIA
242 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...ORLEANS...GENESEE...MONROE...WAYNE...AND NORTHERN
  CAYUGA COUNTIES.

* TIMING...EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

* HAZARDS...FOR SNOWFALL...EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
  MORNING. FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE...SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
  NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT...AN INCH OR LESS 
  SUNDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS SUNDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM 
  TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...SEVERAL INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN SLICK
  ROADS...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION
  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVY SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON
  POSSIBLY BRING DOWN SMALL TREE BRANCHES AND LIMBS...RESULTING IN
  ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
  OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MAY RESULT IN
  MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE ON UNTREATED SURFACES...CREATING AN
  ADDITIONAL HAZARD TO TRAVEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW,
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ006-007-300245-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0017.140330T0300Z-140331T1700Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN
242 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 PM EDT MONDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTH COUNTRY...MAINLY ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

* TIMING...LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* HAZARDS...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...SEVERAL INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN SLICK
  ROADS...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION
  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVY SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON
  POSSIBLY BRING DOWN SMALL TREE BRANCHES AND LIMBS...RESULTING IN
  ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW,
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

WOOD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
331 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. A LITTLE PATCHY DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LINGER LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE FROM
KENTUCKY SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY.
THIS WILL SPREAD RAIN AND WET SNOW INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A CHANGE TO PRIMARILY WET SNOW IN MANY AREAS
OVERNIGHT. SOME SLUSHY ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING STEADIER RAIN QUICKLY
DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...
ALTHOUGH LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ACROSS
WESTERN NY A SMALLER AREA OF SHOWERS REMAINS FROM THE BUF AREA INTO
THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING BEHIND IT. EXPECT THE STEADIER RAIN SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING.

BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS...WESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
INCREASING. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW STRATUS TO BECOME PREVALENT
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME HELP FROM NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS
WELL. IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES DEEP ENOUGH...SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY FORM OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SOUNDINGS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT...
WITH A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOPPED BY DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE.
THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS SOMEWHAT LACKING FOR A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST OF DRIZZLE...SO FOR NOW HAVE JUST KEPT IT A CHANCE MENTION
IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AT OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...SO IF IT DOES
DEVELOP A FEW SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

ANY DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL END BY MID TO LATE MORNING
SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED AWAY AND MIXED OUT. IF WE
GET RID OF THE LOW STRATUS EARLY ENOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW ODD
BREAKS OF SUN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
LIFT WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG MID LEVEL LOW PULLS INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE RAIN AT THE START...BUT MAY BEGIN TO MIX WITH
SOME WET SNOW LATE IN THE DAY ON THE HIGHER HILLS. THE PRECIP WILL
MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS THE NYS THRUWAY BY 6-8PM. MUCH MORE ON THIS
STORM IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW.

SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S IN MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOWER 40S POSSIBLE IN SOME OF
THE WARMER FINGER LAKES VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT
OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.

THIS STORM SYSTEM...ONE THAT STILL HAS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY TO
IT...WILL BRING SNOW AND RAIN...WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY.

THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER NEBRASKA...AND THEN A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE OVER TEXAS WILL
PHASE...AND CREATE A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST. THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE GULF COASTLINE SATURDAY MORNING TO THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN TO NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC SUPPLYING A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM...SUCH THAT THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT...ONE THAT WILL TAP
INTO ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL LIFT MOISTURE FURTHER WESTWARD ALLOWING
FOR A MORE WET FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SLOWER SOLUTION WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO PUSH INTO EASTERN NEW YORK...SUCH THAT
SNOW FALL WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO WESTERN NEW YORK AND THEN
INTO THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF THE THRUWAY.

WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THE TYPE
IS STILL A BIT IN QUESTION. WITH THIS SLOWER SOLUTION THE AXIS OF
HEAVY SNOW HAS ALSO SHIFTED WESTWARD TO NOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SW NYS...AND THEN INTO THE TUG HILL REGION. ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE THE FACT THAT THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING AT NIGHT.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA AND AHEAD OF
THE DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE STARTING AS RAIN. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
SOME SATURDAY EVENING...AS WELL AS COOLER AIR ALOFT BUILDING INTO
THE STORM SYSTEM...AND AS PRECIPITATION RATES INCREASE WE LIKELY
WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL VARY WIDELY...BETWEEN LESS THAN
AN INCH TO SEVERAL INCHES. HIGHER TERRAIN OF CATTARAUGUS AND
ALLEGANY COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE HILLS OF WYOMING...LIVINGSTON
AND THE BRISTOL HILLS OF ONTARIO WILL STAND THE CHANCE OF SNOW
TOTALS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE. FOR SUCH A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND IF THE WARMING
TREND CONTINUES IN THE MODELS...OR HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATES NEVER
MATERIALIZE THEN OVERALL SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LESS.

A SIMILAR SCENARIOS WILL PLAY OUT TO OUR EAST ACROSS THE TUG HILL
REGION. MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE LAKESHORE AND
THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL RAPIDLY TRANSITION TO A
POTENTIAL HALF FOOT OF WET SNOW OR MORE ACROSS THE TUG HILL. WILL
ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR LEWIS COUNTY...FEELING THAT THE BULK
OF JEFFERSON AND OSWEGO COUNTY WILL RECEIVE LESS SNOW.

A DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM...CONTINUING SNOW LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION PUSHES
EASTWARD. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...GENERALLY IN THE 30S...THOUGH SOME LOWER
ELEVATIONS NEAR LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO COULD REACH INTO THE LOW 40S.

WARMING WILL START IN EARNEST ON MONDAY WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
RISING TO +2 TO +4C ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACCOMPANIED BY MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL PRODUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE HILLS...AND LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE LAKES AND THROUGH THE
VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE WILL BE TWO STORM SYSTEMS THAT WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS TIME PERIOD. THE FIRST OF THESE STORM SYSTEMS IS A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY LOCATED OFF THE WASHINGTON AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA COASTLINE...WHILE THE SECOND IS NOW CROSSING THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS. FROM THIS FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW A PV TAIL WILL SWING
SOUTHWARD SENDING ENERGY SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND
THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A
STORM SYSTEM TO DEVELOP TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND TO
THE NORTH OF OUR REGION.

AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM A MILD SOUTHEAST TO LATER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
RAIN AIR TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S...WITH A RUN AT 60 POSSIBLE FOR
THE GENESEE VALLEY. MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A
RAIN SHOWER LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS WNY. THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL
LIE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL
HAVE BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS LINGER A BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
NYS/PA LINE AND SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE ALREADY LIMITED ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ONLY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE CLOUDS...AND FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE THE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME DRY.

OUR SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE A SLIGHTLY DEEPER TRACK THAT THE
FIRST AND CROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND WITH INCREASE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...BETTER CHANCES FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COLDER
AIR AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THEN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW POSSIBILITIES.

TEMPERATURES THIS TIME PERIOD WILL AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL DAYS LIKELY OUT AHEAD OF EACH STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SECOND BATCH OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NY EXPANDING
AND MOVING EAST TO JOIN THEM. VSBY WILL DROP TO MVFR BRIEFLY IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. CIGS ARE JUST STARTING TO COME DOWN...AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CIGS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME IFR
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE...AND
LIKELY EXPAND LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS.
SOME IFR IS ALSO LIKELY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. IF THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GROWS DEEP ENOUGH...WE MAY SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PUTTING THIS IN THE
TERMINALS JUST YET.

LOWER CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING
OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SPREAD THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW
ARRIVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
DETERIORATING CIGS/VSBY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...IFR BECOMING WIDESPREAD WITH
RAIN AND WET SNOW CHANGING TO WET SNOW OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR WITH WET SNOW ENDING.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH A BRIEF SURGE OF MODERATE WESTERLIES PRODUCING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM KENTUCKY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO THE NORTH OF THIS LOW...AND MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM LAST NIGHT INTO TODAY HAVE BEEN A GOOD
DEAL LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...WITH MOST AREAS COMING IN
WITH TOTALS OF AROUND A QUARTER INCH. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MUCH
LESS RUNOFF.

LOCAL OFFICIALS REPORT THAT THE ICE JAM ON THE BUFFALO RIVER HAS
OPENED UP...WITH A GOOD CHANNEL OF OPEN WATER DOWN THE MIDDLE OF
THE RIVER. CAZENOVIA CREEK HAS A GOOD DEAL OF ICE WHICH IS MOVING
VERY SLOWLY DOWN THE CHANNEL...BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF
STORAGE ROOM FOR MORE WATER. LOCAL OFFICIALS IN MONROE COUNTY ALSO
REPORT NO ISSUES ON BLACK OR OATKA CREEKS.

GIVEN THE IMPROVING ICE CONDITIONS AND MUCH LOWER RUNOFF THAN
EXPECTED...THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ERIE AND MONROE COUNTIES HAS BEEN
DROPPED EARLY. THE RISK FOR ICE JAMS IS STILL NOT ZERO...BUT IT IS
NO LONGER HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS WINTER HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY COLD...AND SNOWY ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. SNOW HAS AVERAGED ABOVE NORMAL EACH OF THE 5
MAIN WINTER MONTHS (NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH) FOR BUFFALO AND ALL
MONTHS EXCEPT JANUARY FOR ROCHESTER. TEMPERATURES AT ALL LOCATIONS
HAVE AVERAGED BELOW NORMAL...AND FOR MANY MONTHS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
HERE ARE SOME STATISTICS FOR BUFFALO...ROCHESTER AND WATERTOWN TO
HIGHLIGHT JUST HOW HARD OF A WINTER IT HAS BEEN ACROSS OUR REGION.
FOR BUFFALO MEASUREMENTS MOVED FROM DOWNTOWN TO THE AIRPORT IN THE
SUMMER OF 1943. FOR ROCHESTER RECORDS MOVED FROM THE GOVERNMENT
BUILDING DOWNTOWN OUT TO THE AIRPORT IN THE SUMMER OF 1939.

MEAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OVER THE NOVEMBER TO MARCH TIMEFRAME...

BUFFALO...

1   1880-81     24.5
2   1884-85     24.7
3   1874-75     25.2
4   1917-18     25.5
5   1933-34     25.8
6   1903-04     26.3
7   1892-93     26.3
8   1919-20     26.6
9   1904-05     26.6
10  1976-77     26.8

CURRENTLY THROUGH MARCH 27TH BUFFALO'S 2013-14 5-MONTH AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IS 26.1 DEGREES. WITH MILDER DAYS AT THE END OF MARCH
THIS VALUE WILL INCREASE SOME...BUT THIS WINTER WILL RIVAL THE
WINTER OF 1976-77 AS COLDEST WINTER SINCE RECORDS HAVE MOVED TO THE
AIRPORT.

ROCHESTER...

1   1874-75     24.9
2   1872-73     25.1
3   1884-85     25.2
4   1903-04     25.4
5   1917-18     25.8
6   1882-83     26.1
7   1880-81     26.4
8   1892-93     26.5
9   1933-34     26.8
10  1904-05     26.8
11  1993-94     27.0
12  1962-63     27.1

CURRENTLY THROUGH MARCH 27TH ROCHESTER'S 2013-14 5-MONTH AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IS 26.8 DEGREES. WITH MILDER DAYS AT THE END OF MARCH
THIS VALUE WILL INCREASE SOME...AND RIVAL THE WINTER OF 1993-94 AS
COLDEST SINCE RECORDS MOVED TO THE AIRPORT...BUT LIKELY WILL FALL
JUST SHY.

SNOWFALL THIS WINTER HAS AVERAGED ABOVE NORMAL. THE MEAN 850 AND
500 HPA TROUGH AXIS THIS WINTER SEASON REMAINED TO OUR WEST OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS POSITION FAVORED
SOUTHWEST FLOW MORE THAN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. SNOWFALL FOR BUFFALO THIS WINTER WILL FINISH IN THE TOP 10
SNOWIEST...THOUGH ROCHESTER SNOWFALL WILL FINISH FURTHER DOWN THE
LIST...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

SNOWFALL THIS WINTER SEASON THROUGH MARCH 28TH...

BUFFALO...

1   1976-77     199.4
2   2000-01     158.7
3   1977-78     154.3
4   1995-96     141.1
5   1983-84     132.5
6   2001-02     132.4
7   1909-10     126.4
8   1957-58     124.7
9   2013-14     123.1
10  1944-45     120.7

ROCHESTER...

1   1959-60     161.7
2   1977-78     160.9
3   1970-71     142.7
4   1900-01     141.5
5   1958-59     140.6
..
10  1899-00     131.3
..
20  1983-84     118.0
..
30  1971-72     105.1
31  1996-97     104.7
32  2008-09     103.7
    2013-14     103.7

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ012>014-020-021.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK
CLIMATE...THOMAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1142 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

NYZ001-002-004>008-011>014-019>021-085-291545-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-GENESEE-
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
1142 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM OVER KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY WILL MOVE TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
PUSHES UP THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
PROCESS...WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOW COMING SATURDAY NIGHT.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS COULD TAKE PLACE. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RISK OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...WESTERN
AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES...AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ003-010-291545-
MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-
1142 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

A STORM SYSTEM OVER KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY WILL MOVE TO THE NEW
JERSEY COAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
PUSHES UP THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
PROCESS...WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOW COMING SATURDAY NIGHT.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS COULD TAKE PLACE. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RISK OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...WESTERN
AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES...AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-291545-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1142 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

HITCHCOCK