Wind Advisory 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

808 
WWUS71 KBUF 190240
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
940 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2014

NYZ001-010-019-085-191045-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0001.140119T1800Z-140120T0300Z/
NIAGARA-NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...BUFFALO...JAMESTOWN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
940 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN 
  TIER...PRIMARILY NEAR LAKE ERIE. 

* TIMING...EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.

* WINDS...WEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS MAY BRING DOWN A FEW SMALL TREE LIMBS... 
  RESULTING IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN 
  DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ007-191045-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0001.140119T1800Z-140120T0300Z/
JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WATERTOWN
940 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON COUNTY...MAINLY NEAR THE LAKE ONTARIO 
  SHORELINE.

* TIMING...EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS MAY BRING DOWN A FEW SMALL TREE LIMBS... 
  RESULTING IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN 
  DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

SMITH

969 
WWUS71 KBUF 190821
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
321 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014

NYZ002-003-011-191630-
/O.EXA.KBUF.WI.Y.0001.140119T1800Z-140120T0300Z/
ORLEANS-MONROE-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...BATAVIA
321 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
EST THIS EVENING. 

* LOCATIONS...ORLEANS...MONROE AND GENESEE COUNTIES.

* TIMING...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 45 MPH.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS MAY BRING DOWN A FEW SMALL TREE LIMBS...
  RESULTING IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN
  DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ012-020-191630-
/O.EXA.KBUF.WI.Y.0001.140119T1800Z-140120T0300Z/
WYOMING-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...OLEAN
321 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
EST THIS EVENING. 

* LOCATIONS...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING AND CATTARAUGUS
  COUNTIES.

* TIMING...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 45 MPH.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS MAY BRING DOWN A FEW SMALL TREE LIMBS... 
  RESULTING IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN 
  DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ001-010-019-085-191630-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0001.140119T1800Z-140120T0300Z/
NIAGARA-NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...BUFFALO...JAMESTOWN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
321 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...ERIE...NIAGARA AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES.

* TIMING...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS MAY BRING DOWN A FEW SMALL TREE LIMBS... 
  RESULTING IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN 
  DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ007-191630-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0001.140119T1800Z-140120T0300Z/
JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WATERTOWN
321 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON COUNTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE ONTARIO 
  SHORELINE. 

* TIMING...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS MAY BRING DOWN A FEW SMALL TREE LIMBS... 
  RESULTING IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN 
  DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

RSH

975 
WWUS71 KBUF 191603
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1103 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014

NYZ001>003-010-011-019-085-200015-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0001.140119T1800Z-140120T0300Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-CHAUTAUQUA-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
BUFFALO...BATAVIA...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1103 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...ORLEANS...MONROE AND GENESEE COUNTIES.

* TIMING...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS MAY BRING DOWN A FEW SMALL TREE LIMBS... 
  RESULTING IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN 
  DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ007-200015-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0001.140119T1800Z-140120T0300Z/
JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WATERTOWN
1103 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON COUNTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE 
  ONTARIO SHORELINE. 

* TIMING...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS MAY BRING DOWN A FEW SMALL TREE LIMBS... 
  RESULTING IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN 
  DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ012-020-200015-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0001.140119T1800Z-140120T0300Z/
WYOMING-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...OLEAN
1103 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING AND CATTARAUGUS 
  COUNTIES. 

* TIMING...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS MAY BRING DOWN A FEW SMALL TREE LIMBS... 
  RESULTING IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN 
  DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

WOOD

235 
WWUS71 KBUF 192041
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
341 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014

NYZ001>003-010-011-019-085-200300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-140120T0300Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-CHAUTAUQUA-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
BUFFALO...BATAVIA...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
341 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...ORLEANS...MONROE AND GENESEE COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS MAY BRING DOWN A FEW SMALL TREE LIMBS... 
  RESULTING IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN 
  DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ007-200300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-140120T0300Z/
JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WATERTOWN
341 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON COUNTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE 
  ONTARIO SHORELINE. 

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS MAY BRING DOWN A FEW SMALL TREE LIMBS... 
  RESULTING IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN 
  DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ012-020-200300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-140120T0300Z/
WYOMING-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...OLEAN
341 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING AND CATTARAUGUS 
  COUNTIES. 

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...WEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS MAY BRING DOWN A FEW SMALL TREE LIMBS... 
  RESULTING IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN 
  DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

WOOD

328 
WWUS71 KBUF 192229
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
529 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014

NYZ007-192330-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-140120T0300Z/
JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WATERTOWN
529 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE WINTER STORM
WARNING PRODUCT.

$$

NYZ001>003-010-011-019-085-200300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-140120T0300Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-CHAUTAUQUA-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
BUFFALO...BATAVIA...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
529 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...ORLEANS...MONROE AND GENESEE COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN
  OPEN AREAS...LOWERING VISIBILITY TO BELOW A MILE AT TIMES.
  WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE
  VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ012-020-200300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-140120T0300Z/
WYOMING-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...OLEAN
529 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING AND CATTARAUGUS 
  COUNTIES. 

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN
  OPEN AREAS...LOWERING VISIBILITY TO BELOW A MILE AT TIMES.
  WINDS MAY ALSO RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE
  VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF
THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE
CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

463 
WWUS71 KBUF 200248
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
948 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014

NYZ001>003-010>012-019-020-085-200400-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-140120T0300Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
948 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH THIS EVENING WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT.

$$

SMITH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
121 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY AND
PRODUCE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS
COMING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME LAKE EFFECT WILL PERSIST FROM THE TUG
HILL NORTHWARDS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...MERCURY
LEVELS WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL AS A FRESH ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR OBS INDICATE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW OF EARLIER THIS
MORNING IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS NOW OVERHEAD AND STARTING TO PULL AWAY TO
THE EAST...TAKING THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH
IT. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO WHERE LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A CONSISTENT
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS DOWNTOWN BUFFALO. EXPECT THIS BAND TO
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
IN THIS AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE THIS SAME SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE LIKELY EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WHERE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE. COLD AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION MEANS
THAT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES OCCUR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE READINGS LEVEL OFF OR FALL
SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN
WESTERN NEW YORK TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTH COUNTRY.

THERE WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER LAKE RESPONSE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT...LARGELY DUE TO THE LONGER FETCH OVER
MORE OPEN WATER...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY TO LIMIT THE ACTIVITY.
THE STEERING WINDS WILL BE BACKING DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT AS A
300 FLOW THIS EVENING WILL END UP AROUND 230/240 BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. FACTOR IN A MODERATELY SHEARED AIRMASS AND A CAP AVERAGING
5K FT AND THE OUTCOME SHOULD BE A LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW INCHES.

ELSEWHERE TONIGHT...THE PASSING OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. AS WE
APPROACH DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY THOUGH...THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE
CROSSING LAKE ERIE WITH MORE SNOW SHOWERS TARGETING THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DRAPED FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PIVOT EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
AT THE SURFACE...A COUPLE OF ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVES WILL ALSO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD IN CONJUNCTION WITH AREAS OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROTATING TROUGH THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH...WITH THE STRONGER
OF THESE SHIFTING FROM ONTARIO PROVINCE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC...AND A
SECOND AND WEAKER FEATURE MINORING OUT AS IT SLIDES EAST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE WAVES WILL KEY A GENERAL INCREASE IN
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST AREAS EVENTUALLY
LIKELY TO SEE SOME MINOR LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR LESS.

DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BECOME ENHANCED BY THE LAKES...PARTICULARLY OFF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE COLDER OVERALL...AND WHERE
LAKE-INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL CLIMB FROM AROUND 6 KFT SUNDAY
MORNING TO AS HIGH AS 11-12 KFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HERE...EXPECT
RELATIVELY MINOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO INITIALLY BE DRAPED FROM
JEFFERSON COUNTY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING ON A
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...BEFORE SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TUG HILL REGION AND INCREASING IN MAGNITUDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STEERING WINDS VEER MORE WESTERLY...AND
THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC SETUP IMPROVES AS MENTIONED ABOVE. AT THIS
JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS THAT WHILE SOME ADVISORY-TYPE ACCUMS MAY
EVENTUALLY BECOME POSSIBLE OUT OF THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WARNING-
TYPE SNOW AMOUNTS APPEAR MUCH LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE INITIALLY LESS
THAN FAVORABLE SETUP DURING THE MORNING...AND WHAT SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE OFF OUR OTHER LAKE...THE OVERALL SETUP WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS FAVORABLE FOR NOTEWORTHY LAKE EFFECT WITH LAKE EQLS RANGING
ONLY FROM 5-7 KFT...AND THE EXISTING ICE COVER ON THE LAKE ALSO
HELPING TO SIGNIFICANTLY HOLD BACK THE DEGREE OF ENHANCEMENT FROM
WHAT IT OTHERWISE WOULD BE. FOR THESE REASONS...EXPECT ANY
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TO BE NOTICEABLY WEAKER THAN
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND THUS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY
HEADLINE-WORTHY SNOW AMOUNTS.

THE OTHER MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE WINDS...AS THE
COMBINATION OF A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO INCREASINGLY WINDY
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO
THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS CLIMBING TO AS HIGH AS 40 MPH...WHILE
AREAS FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER SHOULD AT LEAST APPROACH IF NOT
REACH LOW-END ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS GIVEN THE USUAL ADDITIONAL
FUNNELING EFFECTS EXTENDING INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE. HAVE HELD OFF ON
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS LATTER AREA FOR NOW GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY MARGINAL NATURE OF THE EXPECTED WINDS...BUT CAN SEE ONE
BEING ISSUED WITH SUBSEQUENT PACKAGES IF THE FORECAST WIND FIELDS
GET JUST A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PRESENTLY INDICATED.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT ONE LAST DAY OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WITH 925 MB READINGS GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE -5C TO -8C
RANGE...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS PROVIDING GOOD MECHANICAL
MIXING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S IN
MOST PLACES...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE LOW OVER QUEBEC
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD LABRADOR WHILE PIVOTING ITS
ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
OVER TIME...THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL ALSO BECOME ENHANCED GIVEN
AGGREGATE DIABATIC EFFECTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE WAVE THAT WILL
RIDE EAST ALONG THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY.

GIVEN THE ABOVE DEVELOPMENTS...THE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW ACROSS THE TUG HILL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTHWARD AND
EVENTUALLY BODILY MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE
SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE SUNDAY EVENING...WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL
ADVISORY-TYPE ACCUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT OVERALL
PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO ALSO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT/WEAK SURFACE
WAVE...THOUGH RESULTANT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER AND
GENERALLY MORE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO. OTHERWISE...WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...
WHILE TEMPS IN MOST PLACES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE TEENS BY MONDAY
MORNING...THOUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE READINGS FALL INTO THE
5-10 ABOVE RANGE WITH EVEN COLDER AIR WORKING INTO THAT PARTICULAR
REGION.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON MONDAY...THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE DEPARTURE
OF THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LEAVING BEHIND SOME WEAKER
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OFF BOTH LAKES. WHILE THESE MAY PUT DOWN SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMS...AT
THIS POINT THESE DO NOT APPEAR AS IF THEY WILL BE OF GREAT
SIGNIFICANCE GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SHORT FETCH...INVERSION HEIGHTS OF
5-6 KFT...AND THE INCREASINGLY DRY NATURE OF THE BUILDING ARCTIC
AIRMASS. SPEAKING OF WHICH...CONTINUED STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW FOR LITTLE IF ANY RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES LATER MONDAY
MORNING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN READINGS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO
REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN SLOWLY FALL.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT INTO THE SHORT TERM...THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD
WILL THEN FEATURE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS 850 MB
TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE VICINITY OF -25C MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN HOLD
ROUGHLY STEADY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE 925 MB READINGS BOTTOM
OUT BETWEEN -20C AND -25C TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...SUCH COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE INTO READINGS DIPPING
TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BOTH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IT WILL BE EVEN
COLDER...WITH LOWS LIKELY TO FALL TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO BOTH NIGHTS...AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY LIKELY ONLY REACHING TO
ABOUT ZERO OR SO.

WITH SUCH A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...A GENERAL NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ONGOING DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH AGAIN ACCUMULATIONS
WILL LIKELY NOT BE OVERLY SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE SHORT FETCH...DRY
NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...AND LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS. OUTSIDE OF THOSE
AREAS INFLUENCED BY THE LAKES...IT WILL JUST BE DRY AND BITTERLY
COLD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL
RELAXATION OF THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES FROM EARLIER IN THE
WEEK AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD...
THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL AVERAGE SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL RIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO ONLY SLOWLY
RECOVER BACK TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY FRIDAY...WHILE
NIGHTTIME LOWS "CLIMB" BACK TO BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE ZERO.

IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL CHANCES...A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASING SHEAR HELPING TO SQUELCH ANY LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM PLUNGING FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL
THEN BRING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SOME SYNOPTIC-SCALE SNOW SHOWERS TO
AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...BEFORE SUBSEQUENT RIDGING AGAIN BRINGS
A GENERAL DIMINISHING TREND TO THESE THURSDAY NIGHT. VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD...SNOW SHOWER CHANCES MAY PICK UP A LITTLE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AS MODEST WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THE
DISTANT TIME FRAME...HAVE KEPT POPS FOR THESE LATER PERIODS CONFINED
TO THE LOWER CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONGOING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO BRING WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS TO AREA TERMINALS WITH IFR CONDITIONS BEING FOUND
EAST OF THE LAKES. THE PRIMARY CULPRIT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK IS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL
UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO WHILE ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN ENCROACHING
RIDGE COUPLED WITH ONSHORE FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE IS CONTINUING TO
GENERATE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY AROUND KBUF.

WHILE WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TAIL END OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD TO KBUF. MEANWHILE
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...THE COMBINATION OF GENERAL SNOWFALL COMBINED
WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLAY THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD AT KART WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO THE SOUTH OF
THE TERMINAL ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

ELSEWHERE...A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE/MID-LEVEL RIDGING CRESTS OVERHEAD BEFORE
ANOTHER PASSING DISTURBANCE BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. THE
NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS THAT MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 40KT...WHICH MAY ADD TO VSBY
ISSUES AND PUSH CONDITIONS TO IFR...PARTICULARLY IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR...WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR BUFFALO HARBOR AND ALL OF
THE NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS TODAY AS A STRONG ENOUGH SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES.

WHILE WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BUILD TO
NEAR GALE FORCE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
A GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN INTACT FOR THESE WINDS...WHICH WILL BE
STRONGEST FROM MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ON LAKE ONTARIO BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A VERY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD EASILY CHURN
UP WAVES EXCEEDING FOUR FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLD THAT DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK IS VERY LIKELY TO LAST THROUGH THE
END OF JANUARY AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY FEBRUARY WITH MOST DAYS
SEEING BELOW AVERAGE OR EVEN WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

THE D+11 TOOLS FROM CPC WHICH TAKE A 7 DAY RUNNING MEAN OF THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN FROM JANUARY 24-30 SHOW A VERY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH A SHARP RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY NORTH TO ALASKA AND BEYOND TO THE NORTH POLE.
TO SEE SUCH AMPLIFICATION IN A ONE WEEK AVERAGE OF GEFS MEAN 500MB
HEIGHT IS VERY IMPRESSIVE...SINCE IT IS A TIME AVERAGED PRODUCT OF
SOMETHING THAT IS ALREADY AN AVERAGE OF THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. BOTTOM LINE...THIS SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR A LONG PERIOD OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE
FLOW. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO SHOWS A SIMILAR PATTERN.

THE PATTERN SHOWN BY THE ENSEMBLE MEAN IS A STRONG POSITIVE PNA
PATTERN...WELL KNOWN FOR DELIVERING ANY COLD AIR AVAILABLE INTO OUR
PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN ALSO SUPPORTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CROSS POLAR FLOW...ALLOWING SIBERIAN AIR TO CROSS THE
POLES AND SPILL INTO NORTHERN CANADA. FROM THERE...THE PATTERN
SUPPORTS PIECES OF THIS COLD MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND.

THE D+11 TOOLS ALSO LOOK BACK TO FIND ANALOGS THAT CLOSELY MATCH
THIS 500MB PATTERN TO PAST EVENTS...GIVING THE 10 BEST MATCHES FOR
ANALOG DATES. A LOOK BACK AT SURFACE CONDITIONS DURING THESE ANALOG
DATES SHOW THE VAST MAJORITY OF THEM HAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
15-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

TO SUM UP...THE PATTERN STRONGLY SUPPORTS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE TIME FROM NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY FEBRUARY. OF COURSE WITH COLD AIR
COMES LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL...BUT THE DETAILS WHICH DRIVE LOCATION
AND AMOUNTS ARE NOT APPARENT AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
         FOR LEZ020-040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
         FOR LOZ030-042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH/WOOD
MARINE...RSH
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
747 AM EST SAT JAN 18 2014

NYZ001>003-010-011-019-085-191300-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-CHAUTAUQUA-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
747 AM EST SAT JAN 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM ONTARIO TO QUEBEC PROVINCE
ON SUNDAY AND PRODUCE STRONG WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH. IF REALIZED...SUCH WINDS
COULD BRING DOWN A FEW TREE LIMBS AND PRODUCE ISOLATED POWER
OUTAGES.

VERY COLD WEATHER WILL THEN ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. DURING THIS PERIOD...NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF ZERO...AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH WIND CHILLS RUNNING WELL BELOW ZERO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012-013-020-021-191300-
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
747 AM EST SAT JAN 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

VERY COLD WEATHER WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
DURING THIS PERIOD...NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF ZERO...AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH WIND CHILLS RUNNING WELL BELOW ZERO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ014-191300-
ONTARIO-
747 AM EST SAT JAN 18 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

VERY COLD WEATHER WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
DURING THIS PERIOD...NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF ZERO...AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH WIND CHILLS RUNNING WELL BELOW ZERO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ004-005-191300-
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
747 AM EST SAT JAN 18 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR PASSING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO
WILL BRING A ROUND OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHEN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES OR A LITTLE MORE WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

VERY COLD WEATHER WILL THEN ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. DURING THIS PERIOD...NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF ZERO...AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH WIND CHILLS RUNNING WELL BELOW ZERO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006>008-191300-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
747 AM EST SAT JAN 18 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR PASSING ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO WILL BRING A ROUND OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHEN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES
OR A LITTLE MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

VERY COLD WEATHER WILL THEN ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. DURING THIS PERIOD...NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO
20 BELOW...AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SINGLE DIGITS...
WITH WIND CHILLS RUNNING WELL BELOW ZERO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ030-042>045-062>065-191300-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
747 AM EST SAT JAN 18 2014

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SLZ022-024-191300-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
747 AM EST SAT JAN 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF THE
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-191300-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
747 AM EST SAT JAN 18 2014

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

RSH