Alert archive / New York / Special Weather Statements in 2014
Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this special weather statement at May 22, 2014, 1:06 PM EDT for Lewis County, New York. It was in force for 84 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 22, 2014, 1:06 PM EDT (17:06 UTC)
- Expired
- May 22, 2014, 2:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 84 min
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
County Lewis County, NY
The radar
The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 37 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 5.1 hours before the alert went out and 154 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 16 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -167 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 762 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 36 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 7 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 71 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 22, 12:06 PM EDT, 1 hour earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 22, 12:06 PM EDT, 1 hour before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1206 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PLAY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY QUIETER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SURFACE ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE CENTER OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR KSYR WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TOWARD JAMESTOWN AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN PA. THE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND SURFACE CAPE FROM SPC MESOANALYSIS GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS WHICH HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND A PAIR OF SPLIT THUNDERSTORM CELLS OVER THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO NEAR THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE. IN ADDITION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE ERIE. THROUGH TODAY CHANCES THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN PLAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK MAINLY SOUTH OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL AS OVER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE BEST TIMING FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MID-AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. INSTABILITY APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR SUPPORTING LONG-LIVED STORM UPDRAFTS WITH AN ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT PROVIDE A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER OF COLD AIR TO LIMIT TEMPERATURES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO BRINGING MODESTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION BEING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...CLOSEST BOTH TO THE WEAK UPPER LOW AND WEAKER SURFACE CENTERS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKES. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION BY TONIGHT THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ON SATURDAY WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES PROVIDING A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE WEATHER IS STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD BRING FAIR WEATHER AND QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OF THE TWO DAYS...MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE LAKES...AND 70S NEAR THE LAKESHORES. THINGS BECOME A BIT LESS CERTAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BACK DOOR FRONT AND COOLER CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY...A BIT COOLER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND...WITH A PERSISTENT THREAT FOR SHOWERS MID-WEEK...WITH COOLER BUT STILL SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD FRONT IS STRETCHED FROM A LOW NEAR KSYR SOUTHWEST TO NEAR KJHW. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS LINE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD LEAVE KART AS THE ONLY TAF TERMINAL WHERE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE BEHIND THE FRONT SOME LIMITED LOW STRATUS LINGERS SOUTH OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WHICH HAS BROUGHT SOME MVFR CIGS TO WNY TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LATER TONIGHT A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS NEW YORK WHICH MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHRA. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS INDICATED BY MOS GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE WINDS GO LIGHT/VRB. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT -SHRA/-TSRA. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY CROSSING CENTRAL/SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME STORMS FOUND OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME ADDITIONAL STORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO. BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN UP TO 15 KNOTS ON THE LAKES...GENERATING A LIGHT CHOP THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS AND WAVES TAPER OFF FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ENCROACHES ON THE LAKES. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...SMITH NEAR TERM...SMITH SHORT TERM...LEVAN LONG TERM...LEVAN AVIATION...SMITH MARINE...SMITH
Hazardous weather outlook, May 22, 5:54 AM EDT, 7 hours 12 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 554 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014 NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-231000- NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS- ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- 554 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ003>005-013-014-231000- MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO- 554 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IF THEY DEVELOP OVER THE SAME AREAS. IN ADDITION, SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ006>008-231000- OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- 554 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IF THEY DEVELOP OVER THE SAME AREAS. IN ADDITION, SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-231000- UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- LOWER NIAGARA RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 554 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 22, 1:06 PM EDT, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
106 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014
NYZ008-221830-
LEWIS NY-
106 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014
...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...
* AT 101 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LEWIS COUNTY...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER THESE AREAS...PRODUCING
HEAVY PROLONGED RAINFALL.
THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND COULD
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
LAT...LON 4360 7513 4348 7539 4347 7541 4347 7543
4353 7555 4373 7545 4364 7510 4362 7510The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 6:21 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BUF | Wayne | 54 min |
| May 22, 6:49 AM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 56 min | |
| May 22, 6:49 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Cayuga, Wayne | 56 min |
| May 22, 11:23 AM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 67 min | |
| May 22, 1:43 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Lewis | 32 min |
| May 22, 2:17 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | BUF | Lewis | 6 hr |
| May 22, 2:47 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BUF | Lewis | 58 min |
| May 22, 4:36 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BUF | Lewis | 54 min |
| May 22, 5:53 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BUF | Lewis | 67 min |
| May 22, 7:55 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | BUF | Jefferson | 3 hr |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in New York, 2014Every special weather statement in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.