Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1026 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS. THIS INFLUX OF WARMTH AND
MOISTURE WILL HEIGHTEN THE RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT...WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SUMMER LIKE ON FRIDAY BEFORE PULLING BACK SOME OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS MOVING SLOWLY AWAY
FROM THE REGION. ANOTHER EVEN NARROWER BAND OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A
FEW ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO AND NEAR KSYR. THIS BAND IS FORMING ALONG A TIGHT
THETA-E GRADIENT NEAR 850MB ALONG THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT ALOFT.
FLOW IN THIS LAYER HAS INCREASED JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A NARROW
RIBBON OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. GIVEN THE WEAK
FLOW AND FORCING...EXPECT COVERAGE WITH THIS TO REMAIN ON THE LOW
SIDE AS THE BAND SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.

OVERNIGHT THE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
BRING AN INCREASING RISK OF AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS FROM THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES NORTHEASTWARD. RECENT RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS AND MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE GIVEN ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO REMOVE ANY PRECIP MENTION FROM THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS ONLY MODEST AT BEST IN SUPPORT OF
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...WITH A FEW VERY WEAK CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND A WEAK 30-35 KNOT 700MB JET TO AID IN SOME
CONVERGENCE. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING...ONCE AGAIN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
SEEMS OVERDONE WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF POTENTIAL
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY TONIGHT WITH A GENERAL TREND IN PUSHING THOSE RAIN CHANCES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM
FRONT. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ALLOWS SOME LIMITED ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT...SO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

BY FRIDAY MORNING MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR...
WITH A FEW SCATTERED LEFTOVER WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE TOO WILL END BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY.
THIS WILL LEAVE THE BULK OF THE AREA DRY IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE MAY VERY WELL BE UNDERDONE IN SBCAPE FORECAST GIVEN THAT
THE MODEL FORECAST SKY COVER AND RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TOO HIGH IN THE
WARM SECTOR. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES AND A
LEAD CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED SHORTWAVE PROVIDES MORE ORGANIZED
ASCENT. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG
TERRAIN INDUCED CONVERGENCE ZONES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE UNTIL EVENING WHEN THE BEST PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUPPORT ARRIVES.

IT WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE
VALLEY WESTWARD WHERE MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S OVERNIGHT. EVEN THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER
50S. FRIDAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID SUMMER THAN EARLY MAY...WITH A
STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL BE COMBINED
WITH SSW DOWNSLOPE WINDS WHICH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE ALONG MOST OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO...SO IT MAY GET VERY WARM RIGHT TO THE LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE MOVE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING...EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS A SERIES OF WAVES RIPPLING ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE COOL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A DEEP
MOIST RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATS RUNNING UPWARDS OF
1.5 INCHES...WELL ABOVE NORMAL...MAKING THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS THAT SHOULD BRING AROUND A HALF INCH OF
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING AN INCH
AS THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...SOME STORMS
MAY ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE EVENING AS
CAPE VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 600-1000 J/KG WITH
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BELOW 10KFT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW MARCH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS COOLER DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PLEASANT...ALBEIT
BREEZY...AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE FAIR WEATHER WILL LAST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD. A MILD AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...IN SPITE OF
DECENT CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION THROUGH MUCH
OF SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES AS THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...ONCE AGAIN EXPOSING WESTERN NEW
YORK TO INCREASINGLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH A WARM FRONT
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE COMING WEEK WILL ESSENTIALLY BE A REPEAT OF THIS WEEK
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AS THE REGION MOVES
INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THIS POINT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...BUT A COMPROMISE OF THE TYPICALLY FASTER GFS AND SLOWER
ECMWF SUGGESTS ANOTHER WET AND STORMY PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND
SHOWERY WEATHER TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND BRING SOME INCREASE IN VFR
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. AT LEAST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ALONG THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SPARSE. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT...SO AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. GIVEN THE LIMITED COVERAGE...WE
HAVE KEPT FORECAST CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF/SPOTTY
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY MORNING WITH ANY
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS COMING TO AN END. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR TO
PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE AND LOWER WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. AGAIN WITH THE
SPARSE COVERAGE INITIALLY...HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH
A BRIEF/SPOTTY DIP TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTHERLY AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE CHOPPY CONDITIONS AT
THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE WINDS VEER MORE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR
INTO THE EASTERN LAKES AREA...AND WARMER AIR OVER THE COLDER LAKE
WATERS WILL BRING MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/WCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
440 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-090845-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
440 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-090845-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
440 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
146 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014

NYZ013-014-090615-
LIVINGSTON NY-ONTARIO NY-
146 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 143 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND TRAINED
WEATHER SPOTTERS INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR HONEOYE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM MAY INCLUDE...
  BRISTOL MOUNTAIN...
  NAPLES...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY!

LAT...LON 4275 7763 4288 7758 4277 7701 4276 7701
      4276 7731 4273 7734 4268 7734 4267 7736
      4258 7736 4257 7737 4257 7750

THOMAS