Special Marine Warning 22, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
616 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS...HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION AND USHERS IN A
REFRESHING AND DRIER AIR MASS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS EXPIRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...THERE IS ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS APPROACHING THAT MAY
REQUIRE ADDITIONAL ATTENTION. AT 600 PM...RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH A BROKEN LINE DEVELOPING ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT ABOUT 40 MPH...REACHING
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 700 AND 800 PM. THIS IS ALSO DEPICTED
BY LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND 18Z NAM.

THE BIG QUESTION IS IF THIS WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY IN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...ESPECIALLY WEST OF ROCHESTER. NAM/GFS
GUIDANCE BOTH SHOW IMPRESSIVE WIND PROFILES AT 00Z...JUST AHEAD OF
THIS SHORTWAVE. 850 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 40 TO 50
KTS...WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR AND A MODEST AMOUNT OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR. BUF VWP AND IAG OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THIS FORECAST...WITH
ENVIRONMENT CANADA ALREADY ISSUING NUMEROUS WARNINGS FOR THIS LINE.
AT THIS POINT...THE ONLY QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS HOW STORMS WILL
HOLD TOGETHER ACROSS THE LAKES. IF THEY DO...THEN THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY IS STILL IN PLACE. FORECAST WIND PROFILES SUGGEST WIND
DAMAGE IS THE GREATEST THREAT...WITH HAIL AND EVEN TORNADOES EVEN
A POSSIBILITY AS THIS WEATHER MOVES THROUGH. THE MOST ACTIVE
PERIOD WILL BE IN BETWEEN 800 PM AND MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH LOW IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S AND IT WILL FEEL QUITE MUGGY AS WELL. EXPECT
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SERVE TO PUSH THE THERMAL BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES WITH DRYING AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ACROSS THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WHICH WILL FEEL MUCH LESS MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABOUT 5
TO 8 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A SOUTHWARD PRESSING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN A
CANADIAN SOURCED AIRMASS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE PRESENT ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT EXPECT THESE TO CLEAR SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY OF THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL BE REPLACED BY A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE AND DRIER
AIRMASS. TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO LOWER 50S
WITH CLEARING SKIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR
REGION DRY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SAFELY SOUTH OF THE
NY/PA BORDER. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THURSDAY NIGHT THE DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 40S INLAND. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A BIT OF A CHILL TO
THE AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE 60S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. FRIDAY NIGHT A CHANCE SHOWERS
RETURNS TO THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AS A FORECASTED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ALOFT BY GFS/ECMWF MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OVERNIGHT WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE UNDER WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE 50S AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO RIDGE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL GENERALLY KEEP
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE FOR THE
START OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER WHICH BEGINS AT 621AM SATURDAY. WILL
KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND
AS ANY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MAY INTERACT WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS. THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH
STABLE AIR IN PLACE TO PREVENT ANY THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY NEXT WEEK A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES BY
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SO HAVE KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GENERAL CHANCE ON TUESDAY WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO INCREASE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
AGAIN BE MENTIONED. HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RISE INTO THE
70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN IMPACT ON AVIATION WILL BE A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF
TSTMS WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THESE COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FOR 1-2 HOURS AT EACH TAF
LOCATION AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS A
POSSIBILITY. BEST ESTIMATE FOR TIMING IS REFLECTED IN CURRENT TAFS.
AFTER THIS...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THIS.

ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ATTENDANT LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR TO MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE WAVE ACTION ON THE LAKES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT AND COULD BRING
LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A REFRESHING
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR/WCH/APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR/WCH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/JJR/WCH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
215 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014

NYZ003-004-011>014-171915-
GENESEE NY-LIVINGSTON NY-MONROE NY-ONTARIO NY-WAYNE NY-WYOMING NY-
215 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY...

* AT 210 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN. AREAS IN THE PATH
  OF THIS STORM CAN EXPECT A HALF INCH OF RAIN IN ABOUT 30
  MINUTES...ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND
  GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PAVILION...AND MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THE STORM WILL IMPACT SCOTTSVILLE...HONEOYE
  FALLS...AND THE ROCHESTER METRO AREA BY 3 PM.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4282 7812 4298 7813 4325 7753 4293 7724

RSH

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