Lake Effect Snow Advisory 5, NWS Buffalo, NY

445 
WWUS41 KBUF 290426
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1126 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

NYZ007-291230-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-140129T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0006.140129T0900Z-140129T2300Z/
JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WATERTOWN
1126 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

* LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON COUNTY.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES TONIGHT AND 3 TO 5 INCHES ON
  WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...BELOW A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED ROADS 
  ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL 
  VERY DIFFICULT AT TIMES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010-011-291230-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.W.0007.000000T0000Z-140129T1500Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA
1126 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA FRONTIER.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...AS LOW AS 25 BELOW.

* IMPACTS...THERE WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS WHICH WILL 
  RESULT IN A RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE FOR ANYONE 
  OUTSIDE FOR EVEN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WITHOUT PROPER 
  CLOTHING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019>021-085-291230-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.W.0007.000000T0000Z-140129T1500Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1126 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN TIER...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...AS LOW AS 25 BELOW.

* IMPACTS...THERE WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS WHICH WILL 
  RESULT IN A RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE FOR ANYONE 
  OUTSIDE FOR EVEN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WITHOUT PROPER 
  CLOTHING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN A STRONG WIND WILL COMBINE
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 25 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THOSE PLANNING TO VENTURE
OUTDOORS SHOULD USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ006-008-291230-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-140129T1500Z/
OSWEGO-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...LOWVILLE
1126 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...AROUND 20 BELOW.

* IMPACTS...VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL RESULT IN A RISK OF 
  HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE FOR ANYONE OUTSIDE FOR AN EXTENDED 
  PERIOD OF TIME WITHOUT PROPER CLOTHING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN STRONG WIND WILL COMBINE
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 15 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS. IF YOU WILL
BE OUTDOORS USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY...MAKING SURE THAT
ALL EXPOSED SKIN IS COVERED. IF POSSIBLE...AVOID PROLONGED
EXPOSURE TO THE COLD TO PREVENT FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-291230-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-140129T1500Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
1126 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN GENESEE VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN FINGER 
  LAKES. 

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...AS LOW AS 20 BELOW.

* IMPACTS...VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL RESULT IN A RISK OF 
  HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE FOR ANYONE OUTSIDE FOR AN EXTENDED 
  PERIOD OF TIME WITHOUT PROPER CLOTHING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN STRONG WIND WILL COMBINE
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 15 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS. IF YOU WILL
BE OUTDOORS USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY...MAKING SURE THAT
ALL EXPOSED SKIN IS COVERED. IF POSSIBLE...AVOID PROLONGED
EXPOSURE TO THE COLD TO PREVENT FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

APFFEL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
652 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS WILL PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE. A SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL PERSIST OFF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT AND MUCH
OF WEDNESDAY...AFFECTING THE WATERTOWN AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
CLOSER TO NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD AIR AIR WILL LINGER FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS AND WILL IMPACT THE
REGION WITH CONTINUED FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK...BUT WILL EDGE JUST ABOVE ZERO ALONG
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE WINDS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND A TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE SWINGING EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CREATE AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS
STEADIER WINDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
SOLIDLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 18 TO 24 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MORE OPEN AREAS FROM THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE TO THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND INLAND ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER. THE SUBZERO TEMPS AND WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS IN THE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO...THUS A COMBINATION OF
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO HAS SPLIT INTO TWO
BANDS...WITH THE STRONGER FOCUSING NNE OF THE LAKE INTO CANADA.
WINDS WILL BECOME BETTER ALIGNED LATER TONIGHT...AND THIS COMBINED
WITH A SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY CAUSE BANDS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
FOCUSED AFTER MIDNIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD FOCUS ON NORTHERN
JEFFERSON COUNTY LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE LINGERING SPLIT BAND
LIKELY TO BRING ONLY ANOTHER INCH OR TWO TO SOUTHERN JEFFERSON
COUNTY AND FAR NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE
DROPPED THE LAKE EFFECT WARNING FOR LEWIS COUNTY.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
COLD TROUGH CROSSING SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY MAY GENERATE AN
INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER CLOUDINESS...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW CONFINED TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD...
MERCURY READINGS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THEY HAVE BEEN. IN
FACT...FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS.

THE DOMINANT WEST COAST RIDGE THAT OPENED THE DOOR FOR FREQUENT
ARCTIC SURGES WILL BE A MERE SHELL OF ITS FORMAL SELF DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE (U.S. WEST COAST) WILL BE
ERODED AWAY WHILE THE REMAINING PIECE OF THE RIDGE WILL FORM AN
OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE YUKON AND ALASKA. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME PACIFIC
AIR TO FLOW INLAND...UNDER THE BLOCK WHERE IT WILL HELP TO 'DILUTE'
THE COLD CANADIAN AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

AS WE OPEN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE HIGH
WILL NOSE NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDE THE
BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FAIR UNEVENTFUL NIGHT. THE MINOR
EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE WEAKENING LAKE SNOWS (CAP
CRASHING TO <3K FT) WILL LIFT ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY TO THE
THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE UNDER 2 INCHES.

WHILE WARM ADVECTION WILL ALREADY BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...THE PROCESS WILL STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY AS THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. H85
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB FROM ABOUT -12C THURSDAY MORNING TO
AROUND -4C BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL BE ENOUGH TO BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THEM ID
TO UPPER 20S. THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT THOUGH
BY SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 30 MPH.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD BE IN THE VCNTY OF WESTERN LK ONTARIO
AND THE IAG RIVER BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WHILE THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE SOME SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL USE CHC POPS FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
LIKELY POPS EAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. SNOW ACCUMS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE AN
INCH OR LESS...EXCEPT IN THE LAKE ENHANCED AREAS WHERE A COUPLE
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GIVING WAY TO SOME LAKE SNOWS EAST
OF BOTH LAKES. WHILE THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LK ERIE WILL
DISCOURAGE ANY REAL SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS THE SRN TIER...A WELL ALIGNED
WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW INCHES IN THE VCNTY OF THE TUG. A
FORECAST CAP OF ONLY 5K FT WILL LIMIT ANYTHING MORE SUBSTANTIAL.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO FRIDAY EVENING WILL THEN DRIFT
ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE COURSE OF FRIDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASED
SHEAR AND SUBSEQUENT LOWERING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
ESSENTIALLY SNUFF OUT THE NEGLIGIBLE LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WHILE
CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER A RELATIVELY 'MILD' DAY ON SATURDAY WHEN SOME MIXED PCPN WILL
BE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION...A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL ONCE
AGAIN SEND OUR TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL CROSS...OR PASS JUST WEST...OF OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IN EITHER CASE...THIS TRACK WILL ENCOURAGE
A SURGE OF MILD AIR (H85 TEMPS > ZERO C) TO POUR ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK WITH SNOW CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF RAIN FOR THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS VIA THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT...COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE WILL CHANGE THE PCPN BACK TO SNOW.
SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE THE SYNOPTIC
SNOW TRANSITIONS TO LAKE SUPPORTED SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.
AGAIN...THE LAKE ERIE ICE COVERAGE WILL SEVERAL LIMIT ANY MESOSCALE
SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS THE SRN TIER.

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. MAX TEMPS DURING THESE THREE DAYS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR BUF/IAG/ROC/JHW...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING UP THE APPALACHIANS
WILL MAINTAIN A BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER AS WINDS PICK UP
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY THERE MAY BE SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW.

AT ART...LINGERING LAKE SNOWS WILL STILL IMPACT VSBY/CIGS AT
TIMES. OUTSIDE OF THE BAND...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
LAKE SNOWS CAN LOWER VSBY TO BELOW 1/2SM AT TIMES IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LAKE SNOWS WILL BE DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR TO IFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN HUDSON BAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PRODUCE A STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS
THE LAKES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WARRANTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR LAKE ONTARIO...AND LIKELY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH ICE ON MUCH OF LAKE ERIE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
NOT BE ISSUED FOR THIS LAKE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS PAST STRETCH OF THREE MONTHS (NOVEMBER...DECEMBER...JANUARY TO
DATE) HAVE THUS FAR BEEN VERY COLD...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO
RECENT WINTER SEASONS. BUT HOW DOES THIS THREE MONTH STRETCH COMPARE
TO SOME OF THE HISTORICAL COLD WINTERS OVER THIS SAME NOVEMBER TO
JANUARY TIMEFRAME?

BELOW IS A RANKING OF COLD WINTER STRETCHES BASED ON THEIR
NOVEMBER THROUGH JANUARY MEAN TEMPERATURES. AGAIN FOR THIS LIST THE
WINTER STRETCH IS DEFINED AS NOVEMBER, DECEMBER AND JANUARY FOR
BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER.

BUFFALO
RANK    SEASON      MEAN TEMPERATURE

1       1976-77     23.3
2       1917-18     23.3
3       1880-81     23.8
4       1919-20     25.8
5       1876-77     26.6
..
10      1904-05     27.6
..
12      1995-96     27.8
..
18      1886-87     28.5
19      1874-75     28.6
20      2013-14     28.7 (VALUE THROUGH 1/27)

RECENT NOVEMBER-JANUARY STRETCHES...

SEASON      MEAN TEMPERATURE

2010-11       29.7
2011-12       37.4
2012-13       35.2

ROCHESTER
RANK    SEASON      MEAN TEMPERATURE

1       1917-18     23.3
2       1976-77     24.8
3       1872-73     24.9
4       1880-81     25.6
5       1919-20     26.1
..
10      1876-77     26.7
..
19      1995-96     28.0
20      1942-43     28.1
..
30      1970-71     28.8
31      2002-03     29.0
32      2013-14     29.1 (VALUE THROUGH 1/27)

RECENT NOVEMBER-JANUARY STRETCHES...

SEASON      MEAN TEMPERATURE

2010-11       29.3
2011-12       37.1
2012-13       35.2

AS WE CAN SEE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS HAVE BEEN VERY COLD,
ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT WINTER SEASONS. IN FACT THIS 3
MONTH STRETCH WILL BE ABOUT 6 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE PAST 2
YEARS OVER THE SAME TIME PERIOD. HISTORICALLY SPEAKING THERE HAVE
BEEN MANY STRETCHES IN WINTER (NOVEMBER- DECEMBER- JANUARY) THAT
HAVE BEEN COLDER. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN
JANUARY...AND THIS RANKING WILL CHANGE SLIGHTLY AS WE CLOSE OUT
THE MONTH...THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THIS STRETCH OF THREE MONTHS WILL
BE THE COLDEST SINCE THE NOVEMBER THROUGH JANUARY STRETCH OF
1995-96. RECORDS FOR BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO 1871.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ012-
     019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ007.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>006-
     008-013-014.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ001-002-010-011.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ001-002-
     010-011.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/WCH
CLIMATE...THOMAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
653 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

NYZ007-300000-
JEFFERSON-
653 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ003>006-008-013-014-300000-
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
653 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001-002-010-011-300000-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
653 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
   WIND CHILL WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012-019>021-085-300000-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
653 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-300000-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
653 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ042>045-062>065-300000-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
653 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF