Alert archive / New York / Lake Effect Snow Advisories in 2014

Lake Effect Snow Advisory 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

January 8, 2014Erie County, Genesee County, Wyoming County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this lake effect snow advisory at Jan 8, 2014, 3:52 AM EST for Erie County, Genesee County, Wyoming County, New York. It was in force for 11 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 8, 2014, 3:52 AM EST (08:52 UTC)
Expired
Jan 8, 2014, 3:15 PM EST
In force
11 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Wyoming County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 31 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 27 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2014-01-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2014-01-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 271 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
649 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
67 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
271 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
241 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

067 
WWUS41 KBUF 080852
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
352 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

NYZ010>012-085-081700-
/O.CAN.KBUF.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140108T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0002.140108T0852Z-140109T0000Z/
/O.CAN.KBUF.WC.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140108T0900Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
352 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING.
THE BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE WIND CHILL WARNING
HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* LOCATIONS...ERIE COUNTY...GENESEE AND WYOMING COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* HAZARDS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL 4 TO 7 INCHES.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...AS LOW AS 14 BELOW.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED
  ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ006-081700-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WC.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140108T0900Z/
/O.EXT.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140109T1100Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
352 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
CHILL WARNING. 

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES THROUGH 6 AM...6 TO 11 INCHES 
  TODAY...AND 4 TO 8 INCHES TONIGHT.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...AS LOW AS 10 BELOW.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO NEAR IMPOSSIBLE
  OVER THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE COUNTY WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS
  AND FREQUENT WHITEOUT CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
  ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ROADWAYS WILL
  BECOME PARTIALLY OR FULLY IMPASSABLE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME.
  INTERSTATE 81 WILL BE GREATLY IMPACTED NORTH OF PULASKI.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ001>005-013-014-081000-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WC.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140108T0900Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA
352 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

...WIND CHILL WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
CHILL WARNING. 

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES 
COMBINED WITH LINGERING WINDS WILL CREATE WINDS CHILLS FROM ZERO
TO 14 BELOW THIS MORNING.

$$

NYZ007-008-081700-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-140108T0900Z/
/O.EXT.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140109T1100Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
352 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. 

* LOCATIONS...LEWIS COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF JEFFERSON 
  COUNTY. 

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES THROUGH 6 AM...8 TO 15 INCHES 
  TODAY...AND 4 TO 8 INCHES TONIGHT.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.

* WIND CHILLS...AS COLD AS 15 BELOW.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO NEAR
  IMPOSSIBLE WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND FREQUENT WHITEOUT
  CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE
  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ROADWAYS WILL BECOME PARTIALLY OR
  FULLY IMPASSABLE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE
  81 SOUTH OF WATERTOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ019>021-081400-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140108T1400Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
352 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.

* HAZARDS....DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...AS LOW AS 25 BELOW.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL POSE A RISK FOR 
  FROST BITE AND HYPOTHERMIA FOR ANYONE OUTSIDE FOR EVEN VERY 
  SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING COLD FOR 
  THOSE NOT IN SHELTER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN A STRONG WIND WILL COMBINE
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
EXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 25 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THOSE PLANNING TO VENTURE
OUTDOORS SHOULD USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY.

&&

$$

TMA
4 follow-up statements
734 
WWUS41 KBUF 081403
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
903 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

NYZ019>021-081515-
/O.EXP.KBUF.WC.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140108T1400Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
903 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

...WIND CHILL WARNING HAS EXPIRED...



$$

NYZ006>008-082215-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140109T1100Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
903 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...LEWIS COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF JEFFERSON 
  COUNTY. 

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES TODAY AND 4 TO 8 INCHES TONIGHT.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.

* WIND CHILLS...AS COLD AS 15 BELOW.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO 
  NEAR IMPOSSIBLE WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND FREQUENT WHITEOUT 
  CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH 
  CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ROADWAYS WILL BECOME 
  PARTIALLY OR FULLY IMPASSABLE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THIS 
  INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 SOUTH OF WATERTOWN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ010>012-085-082215-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-140109T0000Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
903 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...ERIE COUNTY...GENESEE AND WYOMING COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* HAZARDS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...AS LOW AS 10 BELOW.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED 
  ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$
587 
WWUS41 KBUF 081617
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1117 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

NYZ011-012-081730-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-140109T0000Z/
GENESEE-WYOMING-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BATAVIA...WARSAW
1117 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. 

THE STEADIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER ERIE COUNTY.
THEREFORE...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR GENESEE AND
WYOMING COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

$$

NYZ006-090030-
/O.EXT.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140109T1800Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
1117 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...LEWIS COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF JEFFERSON 
  COUNTY. 

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN INCH OR LESS TODAY...2 TO 4 INCHES
  TONIGHT...AND 4 TO 7 INCHES THURSDAY.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES TONIGHT AND
  THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO 
  NEAR IMPOSSIBLE WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND FREQUENT WHITEOUT 
  CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH 
  CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ROADWAYS WILL BECOME 
  PARTIALLY OR FULLY IMPASSABLE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THIS 
  INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 SOUTH OF WATERTOWN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-090030-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140109T1100Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1117 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...LEWIS COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF JEFFERSON 
  COUNTY. 

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES TODAY AND 6 TO 12 INCHES
  TONIGHT.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO 
  NEAR IMPOSSIBLE WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND FREQUENT WHITEOUT 
  CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH 
  CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ROADWAYS WILL BECOME 
  PARTIALLY OR FULLY IMPASSABLE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THIS 
  INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 SOUTH OF WATERTOWN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ010-085-090000-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-140109T0000Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1117 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...ERIE COUNTY...GENESEE AND WYOMING COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* HAZARDS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO. 

* VISIBILITIES...DOWN TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED 
  ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

TJP
088 
WWUS41 KBUF 081621 CCA
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1120 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

NYZ011-012-081730-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-140109T0000Z/
GENESEE-WYOMING-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BATAVIA...WARSAW
1120 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. 

THE STEADIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER ERIE COUNTY.
THEREFORE...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR GENESEE AND
WYOMING COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

$$

NYZ006-090045-
/O.COR.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140109T1800Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
1120 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY. 

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN INCH OR LESS TODAY...2 TO 4 INCHES
  TONIGHT...AND 4 TO 7 INCHES THURSDAY.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES TONIGHT AND
  THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO 
  NEAR IMPOSSIBLE WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND FREQUENT WHITEOUT 
  CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH 
  CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ROADWAYS WILL BECOME 
  PARTIALLY OR FULLY IMPASSABLE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THIS 
  INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 SOUTH OF WATERTOWN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-090045-
/O.COR.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140109T1100Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1120 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...LEWIS COUNTY AND JEFFERSON COUNTY.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES TODAY AND 6 TO 12 INCHES
  TONIGHT.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO 
  NEAR IMPOSSIBLE WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND FREQUENT WHITEOUT 
  CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH 
  CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ROADWAYS WILL BECOME 
  PARTIALLY OR FULLY IMPASSABLE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THIS 
  INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 SOUTH OF WATERTOWN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ010-085-090000-
/O.COR.KBUF.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-140109T0000Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1120 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...ERIE COUNTY. 

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* HAZARDS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO. 

* VISIBILITIES...DOWN TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED 
  ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

TJP
751 
WWUS41 KBUF 082015
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
315 PM EST WED JAN 8 2014

NYZ010-085-082115-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-140109T0000Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
315 PM EST WED JAN 8 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. 



$$

NYZ007-008-090415-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140109T1100Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
315 PM EST WED JAN 8 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...LEWIS COUNTY AND JEFFERSON COUNTY.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL 12 TO 18 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT
  LAKE SNOWS TONIGHT.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO 
  NEAR IMPOSSIBLE WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND FREQUENT WHITEOUT 
  CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH 
  CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ROADWAYS WILL BECOME 
  PARTIALLY OR FULLY IMPASSABLE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THIS 
  INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 SOUTH OF WATERTOWN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

NYZ006-090415-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140109T1800Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
315 PM EST WED JAN 8 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES TONIGHT...AND 4 TO 8 INCHES
  THURSDAY.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO 
  NEAR IMPOSSIBLE WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND FREQUENT WHITEOUT 
  CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH 
  CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ROADWAYS WILL BECOME 
  PARTIALLY OR FULLY IMPASSABLE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THIS 
  INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 SOUTH OF WATERTOWN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX

&&

$$

TJP

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this lake effect snow advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow advisory went out at Jan 8, 12:42 AM EST, 3 hours 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 8, 12:42 AM EST, 3 hours 10 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1242 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS FRIGID
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW
ZERO. THE COLD WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW EAST OF BOTH LAKES. THE COLD WEATHER WILL
EASE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN NOTICEABLY
MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP AND COLD LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH THIS
TROUGH. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE WAS SWEEPING ACROSS THE OTTAWA VALLEY AT
03Z.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT...THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR...ALONG WITH THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. H850
TEMPS WILL MODIFY FROM AROUND -20C TO -16/-18C WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL THUS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF THE OVERNIGHT.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OFF BOTH GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE TIME
PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THESE LAKE BANDS JUST A FEW STRAY SNOW FLURRIES
FLURRIES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

FOR LAKE ERIE...A PAIR OF FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LAKE BVANDS WILL
EXTEND FROM THE BUF METRO AREA NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. WHILE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WITH A LOWERING CAP...A DEEPENING
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL ENCOURAGE THE SNOW TO BE FLUFFIER IN
NATURE. THIS WILL MAKE IT EASIER TO BLOW AROUND...WHICH LENDS ITSELF
WELL TO THE BLIZZARD WARNING THAT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR
ERIE...GENESEE AND WYOMING COUNTIES.

AS FOR LAKE ONTARIO...A SINGLE PLUME OF MODERATE TO HEAVY ALKES NOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND SITES IMMEDIATE NORTH
AND EAST. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE HEART OF THIS MORE IMPRESSIVE PLUME.

THE STRONG WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCED THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO ROUGHLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS IN MOST AREAS.
THIS SHOULD ALLEVIATE THE PROBLEMS BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE BLOWING
SNOW.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN
TOWARDS BUFFALO WHILE WEAKENING. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
ONLY BE A FEW INCHES.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL...BUT LIKE LAKE ERIE THE SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE WILL WIDEN
SOME WITH THE WARMING ALOFT...AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE
SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW FOR THE SNOWFLAKES TO BECOME LARGER...WITH SNOW
RATIOS RISING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN HEAVY AT TIMES LAKE SNOWS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TUG HILL.

AIR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DROP BACK AGAIN INTO LOW SINGLE
DIGITS...AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...BOSTON HILLS...
WYOMING HILLS AND BRISTOL HILLS REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FROM A SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT...THE DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OUT THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT ONE LAST MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN
QUEBEC LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO ABOVE 8K FEET OVERNIGHT AND FLOW
BECOMES WELL ALIGNED FROM NEAR DUE WEST.

EXPECT AN INITIAL RELATIVELY WEAK BAND NEAR WATERTOWN TO SINK SOUTH
INTO THE TUG HILL REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTENSIFY...WITH UP TO 2 INCH
PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. THE BAND WILL SINK AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL
OSWEGO COUNTY BY THURSDAY MORNING WHERE IT WILL REMAIN...SLOWLY
WEAKENING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING IN PLACE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKES. ONCE WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT
AND CONFIDENCE GROWS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS WILL LIKELY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED.

OFF LAKE ERIE...ACTIVITY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH MORE SHEAR
AND MUCH WEAKER INSTABILITY. EXPECT JUST SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS NEAR BUFFALO IN THE EVENING TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND END OVERNIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 5K FEET.
RAPIDLY EXPANDING ICE COVER WILL ALSO LIMIT THE LAKE ERIE RESPONSE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING
WITH A BRIEF RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MUCH WEATHER THAN IT DID SEVERAL
DAYS AGO SO EXPECT LITTLE ACCUMULATION.

WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE MASSIVE ARCTIC OUTBREAK THIS WEEK HAS ESSENTIALLY
EMPTIED THE CANADIAN PLAINS AND ARCTIC OF COLD AIR. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A JANUARY PAUSE IN THE PATTERN.

850MB TEMPS SOAR TO +6C OR BETTER BY SATURDAY WHICH WILL SEND
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AT LEAST...WITH LOWER 50S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER AND WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...UP TO A
HALF INCH OR BETTER OF RAIN POSSIBLE. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME FLOODING
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY WHERE ICE JAMS HAVE FORMED FROM THE LAST
WARM-UP.

THE PATTERN WILL GROW GRADUALLY COLDER AND MORE TYPICAL NEXT WEEK.
THERE ARE SIGNS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS THAT AFTER THE JANUARY
PAUSE...THE COLD AIR WILL RE-LOAD AS SIGNIFICANT CROSS POLAR FLOW
DEVELOPS INTO THE CANADIAN ARCTIC. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR MORE
ARCTIC AIR TO POUR INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY AROUND THE 20TH OF
JANUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH WHITE OUTS WILL BE EXPERIENCED AT BOTH KBUF
AND AND KART OVERNIGHT. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL SLIGHTLY IMPROVE AT
KBUF AS THE BAND OSCILLATES TO THE SOUTH...LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST AT KART. THESE SAME AREAS CAN EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS
THROUGH ABOUT 05Z.

THE LAKE ERIE SNOWBAND WILL EXTEND TO THE NORTHEAST AND OCCASIONALLY
REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR LEVELS AT KROC DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

ON WEDNESDAY...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AT KBUF AND
KART...ALTHOUGH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE COURSE OF
THE AFTERNOON AS THE LAKE SNOWS WEAKEN. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH WEAKER WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH LOCAL IFR EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH LOCAL
MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL CONTINUE THE MARINE HEADLINES OVERNIGHT AS AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE FOUND
ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS ELSEWHERE ON LAKE ONTARIO AND ON LAKE
ERIE.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
RETREATS INTO THE POLAR REGIONS AND HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN JUST TIGHT ENOUGH
TO KEEP WAVES FROM SUBSIDING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE SOUTH...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY CALM
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RECENT HYDROGRAPHS AND VISUAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT ICE JAMS
FORMED DURING THE BRIEF WARM-UP LAST NIGHT ON BUFFALO...CAYUGA...
AND CAZENOVIA CREEKS IN THE BUFFALO AREA. AN ICE JAM HAS ALSO
FORMED ON THE GENESEE RIVER NEAR PORTAGEVILLE.

EVEN THOUGH ICE JAMS HAVE FORMED...TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO VERY
COLD VALUES HAVE COMPLETELY SHUT OFF RUNOFF. WITH JUST BASE FLOWS
RUNNING THROUGH THE CREEKS THE ICE JAMES WILL PROBABLY NOT PRODUCE
ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. THEY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED NEXT
WEEKEND HOWEVER WHEN TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN AND RUNOFF BEGINS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KBUF WSR-88D IS EXPERIENCING DEGRADED SIGNAL STRENGTH.
INTERNAL CALIBRATIONS ARE TRYING TO COMPENSATE...BUT THE RADAR IS
LIKELY READING RETURNS THAT ARE 5-8 DBZ BELOW WHAT WOULD NORMALLY
BE EXPECTED. THE RADAR WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN OUT OF SERVICE TO FIX
THE ISSUE...AND THIS WILL NOT BE DONE UNTIL A FAIR WEATHER DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ001>006-010>014-085.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ010>012-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ006>008.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ019>021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS
         MORNING FOR LOZ030.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS
         MORNING FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH/THOMAS
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK
EQUIPMENT...HITCHCOCK
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 8, 12:43 AM EST, 3 hours 9 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1243 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

NYZ007-008-090430-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
1243 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.
   WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006-090430-
OSWEGO-
1243 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL WARNING.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>005-013-014-090430-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
1243 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019>021-090430-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
1243 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ010>012-085-090430-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
1243 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL WARNING.
   BLIZZARD WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042-062-SLZ022-024-090430-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1243 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ043>045-063>065-090430-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
1243 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING.
   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jan 7, 10:10 PM EST, 5 hours 42 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1010 PM EST TUE JAN 7 2014

NYZ010>012-085-080615-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1010 PM EST TUE JAN 7 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SLOWLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT...

THE BLIZZARD THAT PUMMELED PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER OVER
THE PAST DAY IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WINDING DOWN THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE STILL GUSTY...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS
EARLIER TODAY. SIMILARLY...VISIBILITIES ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO
IMPROVE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE EXISTING LAKE EFFECT BAND THAT ENCOMPASSES
AN AREA FROM THE NORTHTOWNS TO THE SOUTHTOWNS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY MAKE A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS WELL. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...WITH A TRACE TO 5
INCHES BY 6 AM. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE TOWARD THE
SOUTHTOWNS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH WIND CHILL VALUES ABOUT 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20 BELOW
ZERO.

ZAFF
Special weather statement, Jan 7, 10:19 PM EST, 5 hours 33 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1019 PM EST TUE JAN 7 2014

NYZ006>008-080630-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1019 PM EST TUE JAN 7 2014

...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES...

A STRONG BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN PLACE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE BAND IS CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM
ABOUT SACKETS HARBOR EAST TO CROGHAN. THE STRONGEST PORTION OF
THE BAND IS ABOUT 15 MILES WIDE WITH SNOW RATES OF ABOUT 2 TO 3
INCHES PER HOUR. SOUTH OF THIS BAND...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL
ALSO FALL THROUGH THE EVENING AFFECTING AREAS ACROSS THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU WITH SNOW RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. LITTLE SNOW
WILL FALL NORTH OF WATERTOWN OR SOUTH OF REDFIELD FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

THE SNOW TOGETHER WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH WILL CREATE LOCAL
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW DRIFTS. TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM AROUND 5 TO 15 ABOVE ZERO WITH WITH WIND CHILLS 5 TO 15
BELOW ZERO.

ZAFF

Nearby

Lake Effect Snow Advisories in New York, 2014Every lake effect snow advisory in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.