Gale Warning 14, NWS Buffalo, NY

451 
WHUS71 KBUF 200254
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
954 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LOZ042-062-201100-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0014.141120T0600Z-141121T0300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
954 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 13 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-063>065-201100-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0014.141120T0600Z-141121T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
954 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 40 KNOTS.

* WAVES...12 TO 16 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-201100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-141122T0100Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
954 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...7 TO 10 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-201100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0098.141120T0400Z-141121T0000Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
954 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-201100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0098.141120T1200Z-141121T0000Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
954 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

690 
WHUS71 KBUF 201045
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
545 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LOZ042-062-201845-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-141121T0300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
545 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 13 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-063>065-201845-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-141121T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
545 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 14 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-201845-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-141122T0100Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
545 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...9 TO 12 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-201845-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0098.141120T1200Z-141121T0000Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
545 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-201845-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-141121T0000Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
545 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SMITH

664 
WHUS71 KBUF 201447
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
947 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LOZ042-062-202300-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-141121T0300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
947 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 13 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-063>065-202300-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-141121T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
947 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 14 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-202300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-141122T0100Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
947 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...9 TO 12 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-202300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-141121T0000Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
947 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-202300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-141121T0000Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
947 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

773 
WHUS71 KBUF 202044
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
344 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LOZ042-062-210300-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-141121T0300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
344 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 13 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-063>065-210445-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-141121T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
344 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...11 TO 15 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-210445-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-141122T0100Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
344 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...9 TO 12 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-210000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-141121T0000Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
344 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-210000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-141121T0000Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
344 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

THOMAS

458 
WHUS71 KBUF 202338
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
638 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LOZ042-210745-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-141121T0300Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-141121T1400Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
638 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY. THE GALE
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...7 TO 10 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-210745-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-141121T0600Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-141122T0900Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
638 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY. THE GALE
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 14 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ063>065-210045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-141121T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
638 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE GALE
WARNING. 

$$

LOZ062-210045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-141121T0300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
638 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE GALE
WARNING. 

$$

SLZ022-024-210300-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-141121T0300Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
638 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-210300-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-141121T0300Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
638 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-210745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0098.000000T0000Z-141122T0100Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
638 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...8 TO 11 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

THOMAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
337 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LIGHT GENERAL SNOWFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...BEFORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AGAIN
FORMS ON A FRESHENING ARCTIC AIRMASS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN
PUSH THESE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED
EARLIER LAKE SNOWS. EXPECT SOME SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT TO THE SNOWBANDS
TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE THE SNOW BANDS LIFT NORTHWARD WHILE
DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
....SECOND SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT TO IMPACT AREAS HARD
HIT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO...

FOR THIS EVENING A LIGHT GENERAL SNOWFALL WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH
LIGHT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SW NYS THIS AFTERNOON TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE LIGHT WITH A GENERAL HALF TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE SECOND LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT OF THE
WEEK.

THE BROAD SCALE PATTERN WILL AGAIN FEATURE A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A CLOSED 500 HPA LOW NEAR THE SOO. 850 HPA
TROUGH IS ALSO DEEP WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR LAKE HURON TONIGHT. THIS
PATTERN WITH THE DEEPNESS AND LOCATION OF THE CLOSED LOWS IS VERY
SIMILAR TO PRIOR EVENTS THAT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW DOWNWIND OF BOTH EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

A LOOK AT THE LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS...THEY AGAIN WILL LINE UP WITH
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENTS. BEHIND THE BRIEF WARMING ALOFT
THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH A FRESHENING
BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DROPPING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -14C.

OFF LAKE ERIE...BY MIDNIGHT WINDS WILL AGAIN ALIGN ON A SW FLOW WITH
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO 15K FEET. MOISTURE WILL
DEEPEN WITHIN THE SNOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE LATER OVERNIGHT WITH A
BAND OF SNOW EXPECTED OVER NIAGARA COUNTY. AS THE BASE OF THE
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH SLIDES FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES EASTWARD
THE STEERING WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY.
THIS WILL DROP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND SOUTHWARD...CROSSING THE
NORTHTOWNS OF BUFFALO LATE OVERNIGHT. INITIALLY WE ARE EXPECTING
SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR. THEN AS THE CAPPING INVERSION
GROWS...AND THE FLOW PASSES THE ENTIRE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE EXPECT
SNOWFALL RATES TO INCREASE SUCH THAT 3 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE
LIKELY BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THE BAND OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY BE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BUFFALO TO BATAVIA...VERY
SIMILAR TO THIS PRIOR EVENT THAT JUST ENDED. WHILE A HALF FOOT OR
MORE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY SUNRISE TOMORROW...UP TO 2 FEET WILL BE
EXPECTED AGAIN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW. WITH THE BAND OF
SNOW NEARLY STATIONARY...EXPECT AGAIN A NARROW BAND OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOW. IT IS STILL A LITTLE TO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER THIS BAND OF
HEAVY SNOW WILL ALIGN WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW FROM THE PRIOR
EVENT (WHICH IF IT DOES IT WOULD YIELD WEEKLY SNOW TOTALS NEAR 100
INCHES) OR FALL JUST SEVERAL MILES NORTH OR SOUTH OF THIS LINE OF
HEAVY SNOW FROM THE FIRST EVENT. BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS LAKE ERIE THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWBAND WILL REFOCUS UPON THE SKI COUNTRY AND POINTS FARTHER AS THE
EVENING HOURS DRAW UPON US.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND WILL INITIALLY FORM
ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE
SW WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE NIGHT
WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND DROPPING DOWN INTO THE METRO WATERTOWN
AREA AND OUT TOWARDS FORT DRUM. THIS SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL LIMIT
THE SNOWFALL RATE INITIALLY WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND AN INCH PER
HOUR THROUGH THE VALLEY. AS THE WINDS VEER SOME...LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TOWARDS 16 TO 18K FEET AND WIND SHEER
MINIMIZES EXPECT THESE SNOWFALL RATES TO INCREASE TO AROUND 3 INCHES
PER HOUR BY AROUND DAWN TOMORROW. A GOOD CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE
LAKE AXIS WILL BRING A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EASTWARD ACROSS
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES OFF LAKE
ONTARIO...SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR EVENT MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS OFF
LAKE ERIE DUE TO THE 'SOUTHWEST' FLOW. THIS WILL YIELD SNOWFALL
TOTALS TOMORROW A LITTLE LESS THAN LAKE ERIE WITH 1.5 TO 2 FEET OF
SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WHILE THE BAND OF SNOW
WILL BE FOCUSED TOWARDS WATERTOWN/FORT DRUM AND THEN THE NORTHERN
TUG...AN UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE TUG HILL WILL SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL.

OFF OF BOTH LAKES...THOUGH THE TALL CAPPING INVERSION WILL NOT
INCLUDE THUNDERSNOW TO BEGIN THE FORECAST...BASED ON SIMILAR
PROFILES NOT PRODUCING THUNDERSNOW WITHIN THE HEART OF THE SNOWBAND
WITH THIS PRIOR EVENT. THAT SAID...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDERSNOW
OCCURRING.

OUTSIDE THESE TWO SNOWBANDS THERE WILL BE SUNNY BREAKS THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW. ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT AND DAY ARE ON TAP UNDER
THIS COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY TO LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY ADD ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO THE PRIOR NIGHTS
LOWS. WITH THE GUSTY WINDS SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WIND CHILLS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT STORM ROUND 2 WILL STILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST. FROM A
SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
LOWER LAKES THURSDAY EVENING. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT
AREAS. ANY SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LOCATION...VEERING WINDS FROM THE WSW TO THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MOVING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AWAY FROM THE HARDEST HIT
AREAS.

OFF LAKE ERIE...
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REMAIN AROUND 15K FEET THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DROPPING STEADILY DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRIES THE
COLUMN AND LOWERS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

EXPECT A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 2-3
INCHES PER HOUR TO STILL BE ONGOING ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE FROM
RIPLEY TO THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS AND WYOMING COUNTY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. THIS BAND SHOULD PUSH STEADILY SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING
AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS...THEN WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND EVOLVE INTO
MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE EVENT ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST OF THE SNOW TO BE CONFINED TO CHAUTAUQUA
AND WESTERN CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE BEST
SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM THE LAKE...AND MUCH
LIGHTER SNOW ALONG THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR. THE LAKE SNOW SHOULD
STEADILY WEAKEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER. FRIDAY
EVENING A WEAK BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS MAY TRY TO MOVE BACK NORTH
TOWARDS BUFFALO AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
BY THIS TIME INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE CRASHING...SO EXPECT A VERY
QUICK WEAKENING TREND.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL PEAK AROUND 18K FEET THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING STEADILY DURING THE DAY THEN DROPPING OFF EVEN
MORE QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 3-5 INCHES PER
HOUR TO BE JUST SOUTH OF WATERTOWN AND FORT DRUM EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. THE BAND WILL SETTLE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL
TUG HILL OVERNIGHT BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTY BY FRIDAY
MORNING. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE OPERATIONAL NAM
SUGGESTS THE BAND MAY STALL FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TUG HILL OVERNIGHT WHEN IT WILL STILL HAVE VERY STRONG
SNOWFALL RATES.

FRIDAY MORNING THE BAND IS FORECAST TO DROP QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS
OSWEGO COUNTY AS A RAPID WIND SHIFT CROSSES THE LAKE IN THE WAKE OF
THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST THIS WIND SHIFT WILL
OCCUR FAST ENOUGH TO PUSH THE ENTIRE SINGLE BAND BODILY ONSHORE AND
BREAK IT APART INTO MULTIPLE BANDS QUICKLY...WHICH WILL THEN IMPACT
AREAS FROM WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WE HAD A
DISCUSSION WITH WFO BGM ON POTENTIALLY ISSUING A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WATCH FOR WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES...HOWEVER WITH SOME
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A VERY TRANSITORY BAND THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET ON HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS BUT THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

LAKE SNOW WILL PROBABLY ALSO SPREAD FARTHER WEST ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF THE LAKE ON FRIDAY BRINGING SPOTTY ACCUMULATIONS TO THE
LAKESHORE OF MONROE COUNTY AND THE EASTERN SUBURBS OF ROCHESTER.

FRIDAY NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK...WHICH WILL
CARRY ONE OR MULTIPLE BANDS OF SNOW BACK NORTH ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY
DURING THE EVENING...REACHING WATERTOWN WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE CRASHING AT THIS POINT UNDER STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...SO THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT ON THE WAY BACK NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS AND LOWS MORE TYPICAL OF JANUARY THAN LATE NOVEMBER.
WINDS WILL STILL BE VERY GUSTY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN AND NEAR THE LAKE SNOW BANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW TO BEGIN. THE HIGH SHOULD STILL
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING
TO WARM.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL FORCE STRONG HEIGHT RISES AND WARM ADVECTION
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR...
WITH THE WARMEST DAY COMING MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S AND PLENTY OF
WIND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A MAJOR MELTDOWN IN AREAS POUNDED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF RAIN...WITH THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES COMING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.

THE COMBINATION OF AT LEAST SOME RAIN AND MAJOR SNOWMELT WILL BRING
THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING TO THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...BOTH
FOR SMALL STREAMS AS WELL AS SOME OF THE LARGER CREEKS AND RIVERS.
THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS...CATTARAUGUS CREEK...
AND THE CREEKS THAT DRAIN THE TUG HILL REGION.

LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK FOR THE IMPORTANT THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY TRAVEL TIME PERIOD...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF DROP 850MB TEMPS TO -8C TO -10C
BY WEDNESDAY WITH CYCLONIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LAKE EFFECT EVENT. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 18Z LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS HAVE WEAKENED...WITH JUST ANOTHER
HOUR OR SO OF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOUND AT THE KIAG AIRFIELD. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL BEFORE A
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SW TO NW. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME
PERIODS OF IFR (MAINLY VSBY) FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITHIN LIGHT SNOW.
WITH THE SNOW LIGHT VSBYS MAY JUST FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND
IFR...WITH HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW BRINGING THE IFR VSBYS.

THE SECOND MAJOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT OF THE WEEK WILL BEGIN OFF
LAKE ERIE AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND OFF LAKE ONTARIO SEVERAL HOURS LATER.
EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO DROP SOUTHWARD...FIRST FROM NIAGARA COUNTY
(INCLUDING THE KIAG AIRFIELD) AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT
TO AREAS EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. BY
TOMORROW EXPECT IFR AND LOWER VSBYS IN HEAVY SNOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE KBUF AIRFIELD...BUT OVER THE KART AIRFIELD. SIMILAR TO THIS
PRIOR EVENT EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PORTION OF THE LAKE ERIE BAND TO LIE
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO AIRFIELD BY SEVERAL MILES. ANY
RIPPLE ALONG THE BAND MAY BRING THE BAND OF SNOW NORTHWARD ENOUGH TO
BRING SOME INSTANCES OF IFR OR LOWER VSBYS TO THE AIRPORT.

WINDS MAY BRING SOME PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS INLAND ACROSS THE KROC
AIRFIELD TOMORROW.

FOR KJHW EXPECT MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW DRIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS
THE KJHW AIRFIELD AND SOUTH OF THE KART AIRFIELD. MAINLY VFR
ELSEWHERE.
FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
WITH LOCAL IFR. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN AND
GROUND FOG. LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
BEHIND ANOTHER FRESHENING COLD AIRMASS WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE ON
THE LAKES WITH GALES EXPECTED ON LAKE ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. ELSEWHERE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE IN PLACE ON LAKE ERIE AND SMALL CRAFTS ON THE RIVERS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ010>012-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY
     FOR NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ003.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY
     FOR NYZ019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ013.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
         THURSDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
         EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042-
         062.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY
         FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1231 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

NYZ007-008-201745-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
1231 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO NOON EST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

A WARM-UP AND SOME RAINFALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS AS WELL AS LARGER STEM RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006-201745-
OSWEGO-
1231 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

A WARM-UP AND SOME RAINFALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS AS WELL AS LARGER STEM RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ002>005-013-014-021-201745-
ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
1231 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001-201745-
NIAGARA-
1231 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019-020-201745-
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
1231 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO NOON EST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

A WARM-UP AND SOME RAINFALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS AS WELL AS LARGER STEM RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ010>012-085-201745-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
1231 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

A WARM-UP AND SOME RAINFALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS AS WELL AS LARGER STEM RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-201745-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1231 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

HITCHCOCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1239 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

NYZ010>012-085-200000-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1239 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

...EXTREME SNOW SAFETY CONCERNS...

MOVING ALL THIS SNOW CAN BE DANGEROUS. HERE ARE SOME PRECAUTIONS.

* DO NOT OVEREXERT YOURSELF...SHOVELING OR EVEN WALKING IN THE
  HEAVY SNOW IS EXTREMELY TAXING. TAKE PLENTY OF BREAKS TO AVOID
  OVEREXERTING YOURSELF.

* OVERSTRESSED ROOFS CAN COLLAPSE. SNOW REMOVAL OFF STRUCTURES IS
  A DANGEROUS ACTIVITY THAT SHOULD ONLY BE DONE BY QUALIFIED
  INDIVIDUALS FOLLOWING SAFETY PROTOCOLS TO MINIMIZE RISKS. IF AT
  ANY TIME THERE IS A CONCERN THAT SNOW LOADS MAY CAUSE A
  COLLAPSE...EVACUATE THE BUILDING. SIGNS OF OVERSTRESSED ROOFS
  MAY INCLUDE SAGGING TILES OR BOARDS. POPPING...CRACKING...OR
  CREAKING SOUNDS ALSO SIGNAL SIGNIFICANT DANGER.

* TRAVEL SAFETY...MANY ROADS ARE STILL IN EXTREMELY POOR CONDITION
  OR ARE IMPASSIBLE. HEED LOCAL...REGIONAL AND OTHER EMERGENCY
  TRAVEL BANS. TAKE THE TIME NOW AND PLACE A WINTER SAFETY KIT IN
  YOUR CAR. ITEMS INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...A FULLY CHARGED
  CELL PHONE...BLANKETS...FLASHLIGHT...KNIFE...NON-PERISHABLE
  FOOD...CLOTHING...AND A SHOVEL.

* CLEAR SNOW FROM HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACE PIPES...SNOW COVERING
  FURNACE PIPES CAN LEAD TO CARBON MONOXIDE BUILD UP IN YOUR HOME.
  ENSURE CARBON MONOXIDE DETECTORS HAVE FRESH BATTERIES AND ARE
  WORKING PROPERLY.

* GENERATOR SAFETY...IF YOU ARE RELYING ON A GENERATOR FOR POWER
  MAKE SURE THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED AWAY FROM THE HOUSE AND NOT
  IN AN ENCLOSED SPACE. RUNNING A GENERATOR INDOORS CAN LEAD TO A
  BUILD OF HARMFUL GASES IN YOUR HOME.

* SPACE HEATER SAFETY...SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY
  VENTILATED AND USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY.

ZAFF