Flood Watch 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

959 
WGUS61 KBUF 090800
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
300 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WITH SOME RAIN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...

.HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CIRCULATE MILDER AIR NORTHWARDS
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENHANCED
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN A DEEPENING STORM WILL LIFT FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE VERY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO INCLUDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES STORM WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE AND INTERACT WITH THE ENRICHED MOISTURE SUPPLY TO PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN.

THE COMBINATION OF THE STEADY RAIN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THAT
ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO NEAR 50 SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
RUNOFF WITH MAJOR RISES LIKELY ON AREA TRIBUTARIES.

PLENTY OF ICE IS ALSO IN PLACE IN THE CREEKS...SO THERE WILL
CERTAINLY BE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR ICE JAMS AND SUBSEQUENT
FLOODING.

NYZ010-019-085-091600-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.140111T1200Z-140112T1800Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
300 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...CHAUTAUQUA...NORTHERN ERIE AND SOUTHERN ERIE. 

* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT FROM
  NOTABLY MILDER WEATHER WILL PRESENT THE RISK FOR ICE JAM
  FLOODING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

RSH

271 
WGUS61 KBUF 091423
FFABUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
923 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WITH SOME RAIN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...

.HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CIRCULATE MUCH WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
ENHANCED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN A DEEPENING STORM WILL
LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
VERY MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO INCLUDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES STORM WILL SWEEP ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE AND INTERACT WITH THE ENRICHED MOISTURE SUPPLY TO
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN.

THE COMBINATION OF THE STEADY RAIN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THAT
ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO NEAR 50 SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
RUNOFF WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES LIKELY ON AREA TRIBUTARIES.

PLENTY OF ICE IS ALSO IN PLACE IN THE CREEKS...AND THE PRIMARY
RISK FOR FLOODING WILL BE FROM ICE JAMS.

NYZ011>013-020-021-092230-
/O.EXA.KBUF.FA.A.0001.140111T1200Z-140112T1800Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE
923 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK... 
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS... 
  GENESEE...LIVINGSTON AND WYOMING. 

* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT FROM
  NOTABLY WARMER WEATHER WILL PRESENT THE RISK FOR ICE JAM
  FLOODING.

* ICE JAMS ARE ALREADY APPARENT ON MANY AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS.
  ONCE RUNOFF INCREASES ON SATURDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
  NEAR THESE ICE JAMS WILL INCREASE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

NYZ010-019-085-092230-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.140111T1200Z-140112T1800Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
923 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...CHAUTAUQUA...NORTHERN ERIE AND SOUTHERN ERIE. 

* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT FROM
  NOTABLY WARMER WEATHER WILL PRESENT THE RISK FOR ICE JAM
  FLOODING.

* ICE JAMS ARE ALREADY APPARENT ON MANY AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS.
  ONCE RUNOFF INCREASES ON SATURDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
  NEAR THESE ICE JAMS WILL INCREASE. BUFFALO...CAYUGA...
  CAZENOVIA...AND CATTARAUGUS CREEK ARE TRADITIONALLY THE MOST
  SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICE JAM FLOODING...BUT OTHER CREEKS CAN
  EXPERIENCE ICE JAMS AS WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

322 
WGUS61 KBUF 092041
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
341 PM EST THU JAN 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WITH SOME RAIN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...

.HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CIRCULATE MUCH WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
ENHANCED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN A DEEPENING STORM WILL
LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
VERY MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO INCLUDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES STORM WILL SWEEP
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND INTERACT WITH THE ENRICHED MOISTURE
SUPPLY TO PRODUCE PERIODS RAIN.

THE COMBINATION OF RAIN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE FORECAST
TO CLIMB TO NEAR 50 SHOULD RESULT IN GREATLY INCREASED RUNOFF
WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES LIKELY ON AREA TRIBUTARIES.

PLENTY OF ICE IS ALSO IN PLACE IN THE CREEKS...AND THE PRIMARY
RISK FOR FLOODING WILL BE FROM ICE JAMS. THE WARM WEATHER AND
INCREASED FLOWS WILL BREAK THE RIVER ICE...WHICH CAN THEN BECOME
JAMMED WHERE THERE ARE CONSTRICTIONS IN THE CHANNEL...SHARP
CURVES...OR OTHER OBSTRUCTIONS.

NYZ010>013-019>021-085-100445-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.140111T1200Z-140112T1800Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...
JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
341 PM EST THU JAN 9 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE... 
  LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN ERIE...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING. 

* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT FROM 
  NOTABLY WARMER WEATHER WILL PRESENT THE RISK FOR ICE JAM 
  FLOODING. 

* ICE JAMS ARE ALREADY APPARENT ON MANY AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS.
  ONCE RUNOFF INCREASES ON SATURDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
  NEAR THESE ICE JAMS WILL INCREASE. BUFFALO...CAYUGA...
  CAZENOVIA...AND CATTARAUGUS CREEK ARE TRADITIONALLY THE MOST
  SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICE JAM FLOODING. ICE JAMS CAN ALSO OCCUR ON THE
  UPPER ALLEGHENY...UPPER GENESEE...AND THE HEADWATERS OF THE
  TONAWANDA AND OATKA CREEKS. OTHER CREEKS CAN ALSO OCCASIONALLY
  EXPERIENCE ICE JAMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

023 
WGUS61 KBUF 100018
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
718 PM EST THU JAN 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WITH SOME RAIN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...

.HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE
LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE EXITING FAIR
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CIRCULATE MUCH WARMER AIR NORTHWARD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENHANCED FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WHEN A DEEPENING STORM WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE VERY MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALSO INCLUDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE GREAT LAKES STORM WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND
INTERACT WITH THE ENRICHED MOISTURE SUPPLY TO PRODUCE PERIODS
RAIN.

THE COMBINATION OF RAIN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE FORECAST
TO CLIMB TO NEAR 50 SHOULD RESULT IN GREATLY INCREASED RUNOFF
WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES LIKELY ON AREA TRIBUTARIES.

PLENTY OF ICE IS ALSO IN PLACE IN THE CREEKS...AND THE PRIMARY
RISK FOR FLOODING WILL BE FROM ICE JAMS. THE WARM WEATHER AND
INCREASED FLOWS WILL BREAK THE RIVER ICE...WHICH CAN THEN BECOME
JAMMED WHERE THERE ARE CONSTRICTIONS IN THE CHANNEL...SHARP
CURVES...OR OTHER OBSTRUCTIONS.

NYZ010>013-019>021-085-100830-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.140111T1200Z-140112T1800Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...
JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
718 PM EST THU JAN 9 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE... 
  LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN ERIE...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING. 

* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT FROM NOTABLY 
  WARMER WEATHER WILL PRESENT THE RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING. 

* ICE JAMS ARE ALREADY APPARENT ON MANY AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. 
  ONCE RUNOFF INCREASES ON SATURDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING 
  NEAR THESE ICE JAMS WILL INCREASE. BUFFALO...CAYUGA... 
  CAZENOVIA...AND CATTARAUGUS CREEK ARE TRADITIONALLY THE MOST 
  SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICE JAM FLOODING. ICE JAMS CAN ALSO OCCUR ON 
  THE UPPER ALLEGHENY...UPPER GENESEE...AND THE HEADWATERS OF 
  THE TONAWANDA AND OATKA CREEKS. OTHER CREEKS CAN ALSO 
  OCCASIONALLY EXPERIENCE ICE JAMS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

RSH

411 
WGUS61 KBUF 100437
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1137 PM EST THU JAN 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WITH SOME RAIN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...

.HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE EXITING FAIR
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CIRCULATE MUCH WARMER AIR NORTHWARD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENHANCED FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WHEN A DEEPENING STORM WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE VERY MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALSO INCLUDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE GREAT LAKES STORM WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND
INTERACT WITH THE ENRICHED MOISTURE SUPPLY TO PRODUCE PERIODS
RAIN.

THE COMBINATION OF RAIN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE FORECAST
TO CLIMB TO NEAR 50 SHOULD RESULT IN GREATLY INCREASED RUNOFF
WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES LIKELY ON AREA TRIBUTARIES.

PLENTY OF ICE IS ALSO IN PLACE IN THE CREEKS...AND THE PRIMARY
RISK FOR FLOODING WILL BE FROM ICE JAMS. THE WARM WEATHER AND
INCREASED FLOWS WILL BREAK THE RIVER ICE...WHICH CAN THEN BECOME
JAMMED WHERE THERE ARE CONSTRICTIONS IN THE CHANNEL...SHARP
CURVES...OR OTHER OBSTRUCTIONS.

NYZ010>013-019>021-085-101245-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.140111T1200Z-140112T1800Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...
JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1137 PM EST THU JAN 9 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE... 
  LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN ERIE...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING. 

* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT FROM NOTABLY 
  WARMER WEATHER WILL PRESENT THE RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING. 

* ICE JAMS ARE ALREADY APPARENT ON MANY AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. 
  ONCE RUNOFF INCREASES ON SATURDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING 
  NEAR THESE ICE JAMS WILL INCREASE. BUFFALO...CAYUGA... 
  CAZENOVIA...AND CATTARAUGUS CREEK ARE TRADITIONALLY THE MOST 
  SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICE JAM FLOODING. ICE JAMS CAN ALSO OCCUR ON 
  THE UPPER ALLEGHENY...UPPER GENESEE...AND THE HEADWATERS OF 
  THE TONAWANDA AND OATKA CREEKS. OTHER CREEKS CAN ALSO 
  OCCASIONALLY EXPERIENCE ICE JAMS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

RSH

556 
WGUS61 KBUF 100941
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
441 AM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WITH SOME RAIN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...

.AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE FAIR
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CIRCULATE MUCH WARMER AIR NORTHWARD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENHANCED FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WHEN A DEEPENING STORM WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE VERY MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALSO INCLUDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE GREAT LAKES STORM WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND
INTERACT WITH THE ENRICHED MOISTURE SUPPLY TO PRODUCE PERIODS
RAIN.

THE COMBINATION OF RAIN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE FORECAST
TO CLIMB TO NEAR 50 SHOULD RESULT IN GREATLY INCREASED RUNOFF
WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES LIKELY ON AREA TRIBUTARIES.

PLENTY OF ICE IS ALSO IN PLACE IN THE CREEKS...AND THE PRIMARY
RISK FOR FLOODING WILL BE FROM ICE JAMS. THE WARM WEATHER AND
INCREASED FLOWS WILL BREAK THE RIVER ICE...WHICH CAN THEN BECOME
JAMMED WHERE THERE ARE CONSTRICTIONS IN THE CHANNEL...SHARP
CURVES...OR OTHER OBSTRUCTIONS.

NYZ010>013-019>021-085-101745-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.140111T1200Z-140112T1800Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...
JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
441 AM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE... 
  LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN ERIE...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING. 

* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT FROM NOTABLY 
  WARMER WEATHER WILL PRESENT THE RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING. 

* ICE JAMS ARE ALREADY APPARENT ON MANY AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. 
  ONCE RUNOFF INCREASES ON SATURDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING 
  NEAR THESE ICE JAMS WILL INCREASE. BUFFALO...CAYUGA... 
  CAZENOVIA...AND CATTARAUGUS CREEK ARE TRADITIONALLY THE MOST 
  SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICE JAM FLOODING. ICE JAMS CAN ALSO OCCUR ON 
  THE UPPER ALLEGHENY...UPPER GENESEE...AND THE HEADWATERS OF 
  THE TONAWANDA AND OATKA CREEKS. OTHER CREEKS CAN ALSO 
  OCCASIONALLY EXPERIENCE ICE JAMS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

THOMAS

694 
WGUS61 KBUF 101430
FFABUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
930 AM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WITH SOME RAIN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...

.AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CIRCULATE MUCH WARMER AIR NORTHWARD FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENHANCED FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN A DEEPENING STORM WILL LIFT FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE VERY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO INCLUDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES STORM WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE AND INTERACT WITH THE ENRICHED MOISTURE SUPPLY TO PRODUCE
PERIODS RAIN.

THE COMBINATION OF RAIN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE FORECAST
TO CLIMB TO NEAR 50 SHOULD RESULT IN GREATLY INCREASED RUNOFF
WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES LIKELY ON AREA TRIBUTARIES.

PLENTY OF ICE IS ALSO IN PLACE IN THE CREEKS...AND THE PRIMARY
RISK FOR FLOODING WILL BE FROM ICE JAMS. THE WARM WEATHER AND
INCREASED FLOWS WILL BREAK THE RIVER ICE...WHICH CAN THEN BECOME
JAMMED WHERE THERE ARE CONSTRICTIONS IN THE CHANNEL...SHARP
CURVES...OR OTHER OBSTRUCTIONS.

NYZ003>008-014-102230-
/O.EXA.KBUF.FA.A.0001.140111T1200Z-140112T1800Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-ONTARIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...CANANDAIGUA
930 AM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW 
  YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW 
  YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN 
  WESTERN NEW YORK...MONROE...ONTARIO AND WAYNE. 

* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT FROM NOTABLY 
  WARMER WEATHER WILL PRESENT THE RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING. 

* ICE JAMS ARE ALREADY APPARENT ON MANY AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS.
  ONCE RUNOFF INCREASES ON SATURDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
  NEAR THESE ICE JAMS WILL INCREASE. RUNOFF FROM RAIN FALLING ON
  FROZEN GROUND MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS AND AREAS OF POOR
  DRAINAGE.
 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

NYZ010>013-019>021-085-102230-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.140111T1200Z-140112T1800Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...
JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
930 AM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...ALLEGANY...CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE... 
  LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN ERIE...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING. 

* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT FROM NOTABLY 
  WARMER WEATHER WILL PRESENT THE RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING. 

* ICE JAMS ARE ALREADY APPARENT ON MANY AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS.
  ONCE RUNOFF INCREASES ON SATURDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
  NEAR THESE ICE JAMS WILL INCREASE. BUFFALO...CAYUGA...
  CAZENOVIA...AND CATTARAUGUS CREEK ARE TRADITIONALLY THE MOST
  SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICE JAM FLOODING. ICE JAMS CAN ALSO OCCUR ON THE
  UPPER ALLEGHENY...UPPER GENESEE...AND THE HEADWATERS OF THE
  TONAWANDA AND OATKA CREEKS. RUNOFF FROM RAIN FALLING ON FROZEN
  GROUND MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

796 
WGUS61 KBUF 102034
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
334 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WITH SOME RAIN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...

.A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL BECOME ENHANCED TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY WHEN A DEEPENING STORM LIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
GREAT LAKES STORM WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND INTERACT
WITH THE ENRICHED MOISTURE SUPPLY TO PRODUCE PERIODS RAIN.

THE COMBINATION OF RAIN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE FORECAST
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 50 SHOULD RESULT IN GREATLY INCREASED RUNOFF
WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES LIKELY ON AREA TRIBUTARIES.

PLENTY OF ICE IS ALSO IN PLACE IN THE CREEKS...AND THE PRIMARY
RISK FOR FLOODING WILL BE FROM ICE JAMS. THE WARM WEATHER AND
INCREASED FLOWS WILL BREAK THE RIVER ICE...WHICH CAN THEN BECOME
JAMMED WHERE THERE ARE CONSTRICTIONS IN THE CHANNEL...SHARP
CURVES...OR OTHER OBSTRUCTIONS.

NYZ003>008-010>014-019>021-085-110445-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.140111T1200Z-140112T1800Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...
GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
334 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
   NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY... 
  CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE... 
  NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. 

* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT FROM NOTABLY 
  WARMER WEATHER WILL PRESENT THE RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING. 

* ICE JAMS ARE ALREADY APPARENT ON MANY AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. 
  ONCE RUNOFF INCREASES ON SATURDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING 
  NEAR THESE ICE JAMS WILL INCREASE. RUNOFF FROM RAIN FALLING ON 
  FROZEN GROUND MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS AND AREAS OF POOR 
  DRAINAGE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

915 
WGUS61 KBUF 110422
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1122 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WITH SOME RAIN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...

.A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL BECOME ENHANCED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WHEN A DEEPENING STORM LIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
GREAT LAKES STORM WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND INTERACT
WITH THE ENRICHED MOISTURE SUPPLY TO PRODUCE PERIODS RAIN.

THE COMBINATION OF RAIN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE FORECAST
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 50 SHOULD RESULT IN GREATLY INCREASED RUNOFF
WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES LIKELY ON AREA TRIBUTARIES.

PLENTY OF ICE IS ALSO IN PLACE IN THE CREEKS...AND THE PRIMARY
RISK FOR FLOODING WILL BE FROM ICE JAMS. THE WARM WEATHER AND
INCREASED FLOWS WILL BREAK THE RIVER ICE...WHICH CAN THEN BECOME
JAMMED WHERE THERE ARE CONSTRICTIONS IN THE CHANNEL...SHARP
CURVES...OR OTHER OBSTRUCTIONS.

NYZ003>008-010>014-019>021-085-111230-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.140111T1200Z-140112T1800Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...
GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1122 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EST SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
   NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY... 
  CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE... 
  NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. 

* FROM 7 AM EST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT FROM NOTABLY 
  WARMER WEATHER WILL PRESENT THE RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING. 

* ICE JAMS ARE ALREADY APPARENT ON MANY AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. 
  ONCE RUNOFF INCREASES ON SATURDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING 
  NEAR THESE ICE JAMS WILL INCREASE. RUNOFF FROM RAIN FALLING ON 
  FROZEN GROUND MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS AND AREAS OF POOR 
  DRAINAGE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

077 
WGUS61 KBUF 110924
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
424 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WITH SOME RAIN EXPECTED TODAY...

.A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A DEEPENING
STORM SYSTEM LIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND INTERACT WITH THE ENRICHED MOISTURE
SUPPLY TO PRODUCE PERIODS RAIN TODAY AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF RAIN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE FORECAST
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 50 TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN GREATLY INCREASED
RUNOFF WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES LIKELY ON AREA TRIBUTARIES.

PLENTY OF ICE IS ALSO IN PLACE IN THE CREEKS...AND THE PRIMARY
RISK FOR FLOODING WILL BE FROM ICE JAMS. THE WARM WEATHER AND
INCREASED FLOWS WILL BREAK THE RIVER ICE...WHICH CAN THEN BECOME
JAMMED WHERE THERE ARE CONSTRICTIONS IN THE CHANNEL...SHARP
CURVES...OR OTHER OBSTRUCTIONS.

NYZ003>008-010>014-019>021-085-111730-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.140111T1200Z-140112T1800Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...
GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
424 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
   NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY... 
  CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE... 
  NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. 

* THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT FROM NOTABLY 
  WARMER WEATHER WILL PRESENT THE RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING. 

* ICE JAMS ARE ALREADY APPARENT ON MANY AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS.
  ONCE RUNOFF INCREASES TODAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING NEAR
  THESE ICE JAMS WILL INCREASE. RUNOFF FROM RAIN FALLING ON FROZEN
  GROUND MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

THOMAS

165 
WGUS61 KBUF 111513
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1013 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WITH SOME RAIN EXPECTED TODAY...

.A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A DEEPENING
STORM SYSTEM LIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND INTERACT WITH THE ENRICHED MOISTURE
SUPPLY TO PRODUCE PERIODS RAIN TODAY AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF RAIN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE FORECAST
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 50 TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN GREATLY INCREASED
RUNOFF WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES LIKELY ON AREA TRIBUTARIES.

PLENTY OF ICE IS ALSO IN PLACE IN THE CREEKS...AND THE PRIMARY
RISK FOR FLOODING WILL BE FROM ICE JAMS. THE WARM WEATHER AND
INCREASED FLOWS WILL BREAK THE RIVER ICE...WHICH CAN THEN BECOME
JAMMED WHERE THERE ARE CONSTRICTIONS IN THE CHANNEL...SHARP
CURVES...OR OTHER OBSTRUCTIONS.

NYZ003>008-010>014-019>021-085-112315-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-140112T1800Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...
GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1013 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
   NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY... 
  CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE... 
  NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. 

* THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT FROM NOTABLY 
  WARMER WEATHER WILL PRESENT THE RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING. 

* ICE JAMS ARE ALREADY APPARENT ON MANY AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. 
  ONCE RUNOFF INCREASES TODAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING NEAR 
  THESE ICE JAMS WILL INCREASE. RUNOFF FROM RAIN FALLING ON 
  FROZEN GROUND MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS AND AREAS OF POOR 
  DRAINAGE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

464 
WGUS61 KBUF 112058
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
358 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT TO RAISE CREEKS AND STREAMS...

.A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND INTERACT WITH
TO PRODUCE PERIODS RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF RAIN ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL RESULT IN GREATLY INCREASED RUNOFF WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES
LIKELY ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS.

PLENTY OF ICE IS ALSO IN PLACE IN THE CREEKS...AND THE PRIMARY
RISK FOR FLOODING WILL BE FROM ICE JAMS. THE WARMER WEATHER AND
INCREASED FLOWS WILL BREAK THE RIVER ICE...WHICH CAN THEN BECOME
JAMMED WHERE THERE ARE CONSTRICTIONS IN THE CHANNEL...SHARP
CURVES...OR OTHER OBSTRUCTIONS.

NYZ003>008-010>014-019>021-085-120500-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-140112T1800Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...
GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
358 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
   NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY... 
  CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE... 
  NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING. 

* THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT FROM NOTABLY 
  WARMER WEATHER WILL PRESENT THE RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING. 

* ICE JAMS ARE ALREADY APPARENT ON MANY AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. 
  ONCE RUNOFF INCREASES TODAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING NEAR 
  THESE ICE JAMS WILL INCREASE. RUNOFF FROM RAIN FALLING ON 
  FROZEN GROUND MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS AND AREAS OF POOR 
  DRAINAGE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

848 
WGUS61 KBUF 120334
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1034 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

NYZ003>008-010>014-019>021-085-121145-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-140112T1800Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...
GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1034 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...
  NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO. IN WESTERN NEW YORK...ALLEGANY...
  CATTARAUGUS...CHAUTAUQUA...GENESEE...LIVINGSTON...MONROE...
  NORTHERN ERIE...ONTARIO...SOUTHERN ERIE...WAYNE AND WYOMING.

* THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON

* MOST OF THE RAIN HAS ENDED FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...EARLIER
  RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS CAUSED WATER LEVELS ON RIVERS AND
  STREAMS TO RISE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN BREAKING UP OF ICE ON MANY
  WATERWAYS...AND IN SOME CASES ICE JAMS INCLUDING LOCALIZED
  FLOODING.

* ICE JAMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN
  PARTS OF THE AREA. AS WATER LEVELS FLUCTUATE IN THE VICINITY OF
  ICE JAMS...LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
  THROUGH SUNDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

TMA

880 
WGUS61 KBUF 120904
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
404 AM EST SUN JAN 12 2014

NYZ003>008-010>014-019>021-085-121015-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-140112T1800Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-
GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...
GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
404 AM EST SUN JAN 12 2014

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. RAIN ENDED LAST EVENING AND THE THREAT FOR RISES
ON CREEKS AND RIVERS DUE TO ICE JAMMING HAS ENDED.

$$

SMITH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
638 PM EST WED JAN 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE VERY COLD WEATHER WILL SLOWLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE. THE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON THURSDAY. NOTICEABLY MILDER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
ON FRIDAY AND RAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND FROM THE BUF
METRO AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT...
THE AREA OF CONCVERN WILL REMAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

A WELL DEFINED SNOW BAND IS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY
AND FAR NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW SNOW
ACCUMULATING AT A HALF TO ONE INCH PER HOUR WITHIN THE HEART OF THE
SNOW BAND. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF JEFFERSON COUNTY.

AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES AND REACH NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE
BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS IMPULSE WILL ENHANCE LARGE SCALE LIFT WHICH
WILL HELP TO KEEP THE SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO INTACT OVER
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE WEST NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND TO SETTLE
SOUTH INTO OSWEGO COUNTY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS BAND MAY NIP HORTEN
CAYUGA COUNTY...BUT THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER OSWEGO COUNTY WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING HAS
BEEN EXTENDED INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY HELP TO RE-ENERGIZE A WEAK SNOW BAND OFF
LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT A LACK OF OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SCALE MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION.

AREAS NOT IMPACTED BY THE LAKE SNOWS WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THE SHORT WAVE.

THE ONGOING SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR WORK EAST ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

SINCE THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE COUNTRY TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS THEY WERE THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS. WARM AIR ADVECTION ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATED TO ADDRESS POTENTIAL FLOOD WATCH FOR ICE JAM FLOODING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY EVENING WILL DRIFT OFF THE
EAST COAST OVERNIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION INCREASING ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND DPVA
FROM A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY PRODUCE JUST ENOUGH ASCENT TO
SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE LIGHT SNOW...BUT EVEN SO AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR
LESS.

THE LIGHT SNOW WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE LEFT BEHIND.
ONGOING WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. FRIDAY
NIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE FURTHER AS A DEEP TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION AND ALLOWS STRONG HEIGHT RISES
DOWNSTREAM. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT...AND THE
INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS LATE.

ON SATURDAY A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE A DEEP LOW
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE 50S...AND ALSO BRING ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE LOWER LAKES. STRONG MID LEVEL DPVA AND
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT...
WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A VERY STRONG
80 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET.

THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY
BRIEF AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...BUT STILL WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE AVERAGE RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
SOUTHERN TUG HILL. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. THE STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET MAY PRODUCE DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORE...THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY...AND ON ANY NORTH FACING SLOPES.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

THE TREND TO SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WEATHER MAY COME AT A PRICE. THE
COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S AND A FORECAST QPF
OF A HALF TO AS MUCH AS ONE INCH OF RAIN ON SATURDAY COULD RESULT IN
RAPID SNOWMELT AND SUBSEQUENT RUNOFF. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED ICE JAM FLOODING...ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR
FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ICE JAM
FLOODING WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF ERIE COUNTY AND ALONG CATTARAUGUS
CREEK THAT MAKES UP THE NORTHERN BORDERS OF CHAUTAUQUA AND
CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. THIS RISK WILL BE RE-EVALUATED TONIGHT FOR A
POSSIBLE WEEKEND FLOOD WATCH...BUT IS ALREADY BEING ADDRESSED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) PRODUCT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND MAY
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. BY AFTERNOON A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES AND BRING AN END TO ANY SNOW SHOWERS. ON MONDAY A MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS
WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO KEEP OUR REGION DRY WITH A
PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A TROUGH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH THEY
DIFFER ON THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING...AND SUBSEQUENTLY IN THE SURFACE
PATTERN RESPONSE. IN A GENERAL SENSE EXPECT A TREND TOWARDS COOLER
AND CLOSE TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...IT APPEARS THE PATTERN WILL GROW COLDER
AGAIN AFTER A JANUARY PAUSE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS...AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF BEGIN TO AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AGAIN ACROSS NOAM NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF ALLOWS CROSS POLAR FLOW TO
RE-FUEL THE SOURCE REGION FOR COLD AIR...AND A RIDGE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS WOULD IN TURN
DEVELOP A STRONG DOWNSTREAM TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
BY SOMETIME AROUND JANUARY 20TH GIVE OR TAKE A FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WEAK LAKE EFFECT COULD PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KBUF AND EVEN KJHW. UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS...THIS NUISANCE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACTS...ON
OPERATIONS.

MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KART FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. THE
BAND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND INTO
OSWEGO COUNTY OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR AT KART FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS TO ALL OF THE TAF SITES ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...DETERIORATING TO MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH LOCAL
MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER LAKE ONTARIO INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AS
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TAKE OVER.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO INCREASE. WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN NEW YORK SHORES OF LAKE
ONTARIO MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A MAJOR WARM-UP IS ON THE WAY FOR SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING INTO THE 50S ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS.
THIS WILL QUICKLY ALLOW SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT TO DEVELOP IN AREAS
WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION... A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY.

THE RAIN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES
ON AREA CREEKS. THE HIGHEST CONCERN WILL BE THE FAST REACTING
BUFFALO AREA CREEKS WHERE THE HIGHER SNOWPACK EXISTS.

IN ADDITION...THE LOOK OF HYDROGRAPHS ON BUFFALO...CAYUGA...AND
CAZENOVIA CREEKS STRONGLY SUGGESTS ICE JAMS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE.
ONCE RUNOFF BEGINS THIS WILL INCREASE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR ICE
JAMS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ007-
     008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH/TJP
NEAR TERM...RSH/TJP
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH/TJP
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
320 PM EST WED JAN 8 2014

NYZ007-008-092030-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
320 PM EST WED JAN 8 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP COMBINED WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WILL RESULT IN RAPID SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...MAINLY IN SMALL CREEKS AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. ICE JAM FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON SOME CREEKS
WHICH ARE TRADITIONALLY PRONE TO ICE PROBLEMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006-092030-
OSWEGO-
320 PM EST WED JAN 8 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP COMBINED WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WILL RESULT IN RAPID SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...MAINLY IN SMALL CREEKS AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. ICE JAM FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON SOME CREEKS
WHICH ARE TRADITIONALLY PRONE TO ICE PROBLEMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>005-013-014-021-092030-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
ALLEGANY-
320 PM EST WED JAN 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP COMBINED WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WILL RESULT IN RAPID SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...MAINLY IN SMALL CREEKS AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. ICE JAM FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON SOME CREEKS
WHICH ARE TRADITIONALLY PRONE TO ICE PROBLEMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ010>012-019-020-085-092030-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
320 PM EST WED JAN 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP COMBINED WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WILL RESULT IN RAPID SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...MAINLY IN SMALL CREEKS AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

IN ADDITION...ICE JAMS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE ALONG THE BUFFALO AREA
CREEKS. BUFFALO...CAYUGA...CAZENOVIA...AND CATTARAUGUS CREEKS ARE
TRADITIONALLY VERY PRONE TO ICE JAMS DURING MID WINTER WARM
SPELLS. THIS MAY RESULT IN ENHANCED FLOODING POTENTIAL IN SOME
AREAS ALONG THESE CREEKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-092030-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
320 PM EST WED JAN 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

HITCHCOCK