Special Weather Statement, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
343 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...AFTN MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A SFC LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD...PASSING OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

REGIONAL RADAR THIS AFTN DEPICTS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL NY. UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH LAPS CAPES
AROUND 2000 J/KG. EXPECT THESE TO GENERALLY PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS INTO SOUTHERN VT.
I'VE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THIS GENERAL AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH TAPERING SHARPLY WITH
NORTHEAST EXTENT.

LATER TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT...RAIN COVERAGE THEN BECOMES MORE
NEBULOUS/SPOTTY. DECREASING TREND TO POPS OVERNIGHT TO CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. OVERCAST
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY AREAS OF MIST OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS. FELT BOTH
12Z MAV AND MET MOS WERE BOTH TOO COLD WITH LOWS GIVEN CLOUD
COVER...OPTING TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LOW THEN CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. NAM AND
GFS DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AND PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FORECAST
DURING THE AFTN HOURS...TRENDING DRIER BY EVENING. MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST TRENDS TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY BY AFTN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS FRIDAY ARE COOLEST IN SOUTHERN VT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY AND
WARMEST NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH DRY WEATHER
FOR SATURDAY. WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES AND SATURATED
NAM/BTV-4 LOW-LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MARINE
LAYER/STRATUS IN EASTERN VT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM +9C IN EASTERN
VT TO AROUND +11C ELSEWHERE...LOOKING AT HIGHS ONLY AROUND 70 IN
EASTERN VT TO MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWS LOWS TO RANGE FROM UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS
FOR THE TIME. MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE (AKA: RIDGOSAUROUS). 12Z SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER AND PRIOR
RUNS. NOTED THAT THE 12Z ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS FOR THE
SCENARIO ON WEDNESDAY AND IS NOW SHOWING A STRONGER RIDGE INTO MID
WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE FOR THURSDAY, WITH EURO SHOWING A FASTER/MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE. THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
FOR BEYOND THE OFFICIAL PERIOD I'M FORECASTING FOR, BUT AN EARLY
LOOK AT GUIDANCE FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND SEEMS TO INDICATE IT WILL
FEATURE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. WE'LL
SEE. AS FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS, JUST READ ON:

SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF HERE SO CONTINUED
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. 850 MPH TEMPERATURES RISE TO 11-13C (WARMEST
IN WESTERN HALF), WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S EAST TO
LOW 80S WEST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP ANY CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM.
AT NIGHT, CLEAR AND CALM SO LOOK FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD, SO HARDLY A BREEZE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER DEGREE TO ABOUT 12-14C, SO ADD ABOUT 1-3F
FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FROM SUNDAY -- LOWER 80S PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE.
MONDAY NIGHT, MORE CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH SOUTH OF HERE, SO A BIT OF A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
GETS ESTABLISHED. 850MB TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER DEGREE. WITH WEST
FLOW, THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO I'D EXPECT MID 80S TO BE A SOLID BET IN THE VALLEYS. THE
EURO RUNS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER, SO HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
WARMER GFS TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH SOUTH OF HERE, SO THE AREA IS SOLIDLY IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PUSHING 15-16C WHICH
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN SPOTS. ADD IN SOME
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE ADIRONDACKS, AND I THINK PARTS OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COULD MAKE A RUN AT 90F. I DID INCREASE
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH WAS
BIASED A BIT COOL DUE TO THE EURO AND CLIMO IN THE MOS. THAT BLEND
GAVE ME 81F FOR BTV. MEX GUIDANCE WAS 83F. I WENT 85F. WE'LL SEE
HOW FUTURE GUIDANCE GOES AND IF THE TREND TO BE WARMER IS NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY...THIS IS WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THE EURO IS MORE AGRESSIVE WITH
A SHORTWAVE. AT THIS POINT, BEST COURSE IS TO TAKE A BLEND. HAVE
PAINTED IN CHANCE LEVEL OF POPS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN BE VERY WARM IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. OR COOLER
IF THE EURO IS RIGHT. STUCK WITH THE BLEND. WHICH STILL FEATURES
LOTS OF LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY....CURRENTLY SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE
QUICKLY DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK WHILE AN
AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN (ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS) IS MOVING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS TUCKED UP ALONG
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AS WELL. THROUGH 00Z, ANTICIPATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE UP MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK, AFFECTING MSS, SLK AND PBG. HAVE CARRIED VCTS
FOR THESE LOCATIONS, WITH SOME TEMPO GROUPS WHERE I'M A LITTLE
MORE CONFIDENT ON TIMING. FOR VERMONT WENT MAINLY VCSH AS NOT
ANTICIPATING AS HIGH OF A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

FUZZY ON THE DETAILS ON WHAT COULD HAPPEN OVERNIGHT. SUSPECT THERE
WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND, THOUGH CHANCES ARE BELOW 50% SO THEY
WON'T SHOW IN THE TAFS. ALSO ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO DROP INTO THE
MVFR RANGE IN MANY AREAS. COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT FOG REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO 4-6SM.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. JUST CALLED IT 'VCSH' IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
VFR WITH THE FOLLOWING EXCEPTIONS -- BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. LOCALIZED IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG (MAINLY AN
ISSUE FOR MPV AND SLK).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1035 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

NYZ029-030-034-035-087-VTZ009-011-012-018-019-221445-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-WESTERN ADDISON-
WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
1035 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT TODAY INTO EARLY
EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

NYZ026-027-029-030-087-212000-
NORTHERN FRANKLIN NY-NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN NY-
SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-
300 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
FRANKLIN AND ST. LAWRENCE COUNTIES...

AT 254 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL WAS LOCATED FROM CARDINAL TO SOUTH COLTON TO HORSESHOE
LAKE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THERE
MAY BE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
POTSDAM...MADRID...WADDINGTON...PIERCEFIELD...NORFOLK...WEST
STOCKHOLM...TUPPER LAKE...RAYMONDVILLE...LOUISVILLE...BRASHER
FALLS...LAWRENCEVILLE...MASSENA...

BE CAREFUL WHEN DRIVING. PONDING WATER ON ROADWAYS CAN CREATE
DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY.

LAT...LON 4482 7450 4435 7428 4408 7463 4407 7475
      4447 7494 4475 7544 4478 7541 4479 7537
      4488 7522 4488 7518 4493 7508 4495 7501
      4499 7498 4499 7492 4501 7486

LOCONTO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
403 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

NYZ026>031-034-087-212100-
EASTERN CLINTON NY-NORTHERN FRANKLIN NY-NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN NY-
SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-WESTERN CLINTON NY-WESTERN ESSEX NY-
403 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEASTERN ST.
LAWRENCE...NORTHERN FRANKLIN...NORTHWESTERN CLINTON AND NORTHWESTERN
ESSEX COUNTIES...

AT 354 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
LOUISVILLE TO NICHOLVILLE TO ONCHIOTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

EXPECT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND
ON ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THERE MAY BE RAPID RISES ON
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
MASSENA...LOON LAKE...DUANE CENTER...EISENHOWER LOCK...HELENA...
BRUSHTON...WEST BANGOR...CHASM FALLS...HOGANSBURG...WHIPPLEVILLE...
MALONE...FORT COVINGTON CENTER...

BE CAREFUL WHEN DRIVING. PONDING WATER ON ROADWAYS CAN CREATE
DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY.

LAT...LON 4502 7476 4500 7475 4501 7471 4500 7418
      4501 7399 4497 7368 4440 7408 4466 7466
      4491 7511 4493 7508 4495 7501 4499 7498
      4499 7492 4503 7484

LOCONTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
430 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     FLOOD            CANTON                  44.60N  75.17W
08/21/2014                   ST. LAWRENCE       NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROUTE 11 IS CLOSED BETWEEN COUNTY ROUTE 310 AND COWAN
            ROAD IN CANTON DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1400172

EVENSON

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>