Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
746 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE THREAT
FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRIER ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED. AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 635 PM EDT TUESDAY...UPDATED ZNS TO MENTION SVR THUNDERSTORM
WATCH #405 UNTIL 04 UTC FOR ALL OF OUR CWA. WATCHING A LINE OF SVR
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH IS ABOUT TO ENTER
SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY ATTM. LAPS INSTABILITY SHOWS SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 800-1200 J/KG AND 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
INCREASING TO 45 TO 55 KNOTS. HAVE NOTED VAD OFF KTYX OF 70 KNOTS
AT 85H/925MB...INDICATING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DESCENDING REAR
INFLOW JET. THIS DEVELOPING APEX OF THE BOW ECHO IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY BY 715 PM AND INTO THE
CENTRAL DACKS BY 800PM. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH
POWER OUTAGES AND TREES DOWN...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH THE LINE HOLDS TOGETHER ACROSS THE CPV AND
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...AS WE WILL BE DECREASING OUR LLVL
INSTABILITY WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING. WL MENTION DAMAGING
WINDS THRU MOST OF VT...BUT THE HARDEST HIT AREAS WL BE NORTHERN
NY INTO THE WESTERN CPV. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LIKELY TO
CAT POPS EXPECTED THRU MIDNIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. TEMPS WL QUICKLY DROP BACK INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE SFC
COLD FRNT.

PREVIOUS FCST DISCUSSION BELOW...
AN ACTIVE EVENING EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LIKELY. DAMAGING WINDS
WL BE THE PRIMARY SVR WEATHER THREAT...WHICH MAY CAUSE POWER
OUTAGES AND DOWN TREES...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NY INTO THE CPV.

SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WITH POTENT 5H VORT LIFTING FROM WESTERN NY INTO THE SLV
BY 03Z TONIGHT. THIS ENERGY WL COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LOW TO MID
LVL WIND PROFILES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACRS OUR FA FROM 21 UTC TO 06Z TONIGHT. THE LIMITING FACTOR
WITH REGARDS TO HIGH END SVR WL BE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND TIMING
OF SYSTEM...FEEL BEST CHC FOR DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER WL
BE ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO THE CPV. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN
ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES FROM THE LOSS OF
SFC HEATING. HAVE ALREADY NOTED SFC BASED CAPE PARAMETERS DECREASING
AS MID LVL CLOUDS MOVE INTO OUR REGION...WITH LAPS SHOWING VALUES
BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG...THIS COULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY
OF STORMS ACRS OUR CWA. WL CONT TO MENTION DAMAGING WINDS IN FCST
THRU 04Z TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE CPV AND POINTS WESTWARD. MANY OF
THE MESO MODELS SHOW A CONVECTIVE LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ACRS
WESTERN NY/PA THIS AFTN...QUICKLY LIFTING NE AND IMPACTING OUR
REGION BTWN 21Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING...WITH GREATEST PROGGED
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURES ACRS NORTHERN NY. OTHERWISE...WL
TAPER LIKELY/CAT POPS TO CHC WORDING AFT MIDNIGHT WITH TEMPS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S MTNS TO 60S VALLEYS. SFC GRADIENT SHOULD
PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION. MAYBE A FEW PATCHY AREAS IN THE
DEEPER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL BUILD ACRS THE NE
CONUS FOR WEDS THRU THURS NIGHT...RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR...ESPECIALLY BY THURS. LATEST PROGS CONT TO SHOW ANOTHER
5H VORT IN THE FLW ALOFT...ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB RH...WHICH MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS ON WEDS. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...SO ANTICIPATING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...BEST SFC BASED CAPE IS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. CWA WL BE
UNDER LLVL CAA ON WEDS...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROPPING BTWN 8C
(SLV) TO 12C (CT RIVER VALLEY)...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 60S DACKS
TO L/M 70S SLV/NEK/MTNS OF VT...MID/UPPER 70S CPV...TO L80S NEAR
VSF. EXPECTING TEMPS MAINLY IN THE U40S TO U50S ON WEDS
NIGHT...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BY THURS INTO THURS
NIGHT...1024MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...WITH
MID/UPPER LVL TROF AXIS ACRS OUR CWA. THIS ULVL SUPPORT WL
COMBINED WITH SOME SFC HEATING/LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE TRRN ON
THURS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES AND RANGE
BTWN 6-9C ON THURS...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 60S MTNS TO 70S
VALLEYS. A COOL NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED ON THURS NIGHT WITH SOME FOG
POSSIBLE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLR SKIES...TEMPS WL FALL BACK
INTO THE U30S/L40S COLDER VALLEYS TO U40S/L50S CPV/UHI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 416 PM EDT TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD WL FEATURE A TRANSITION
BTWN MID/UPPER LVL TROF INTO A FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BEFORE
ANOTHER TROF DEVELOPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL S/W
FEATURES IN THE FLW ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WL
BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE DIFFICULT ON SAT/SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SFC HIGH PRES SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY WITH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY
SATURDAY. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASES ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED S/W ENERGY AND SFC BOUNDARY.
BEST CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS WL BE NEXT MONDAY...WHEN THE
COMBINATION OF ULVL SUPPORT INTERACTS WITH BEST LLVL INSTABILITY.
WL KEEP POPS AT CHC FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY AND WAIT FOR BETTER TIMING
WITH TROF DEVELOPMENT BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 14-16C AHEAD OF APPROACHING BOUNDARY BY 00Z
MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. SOME INCREASE IN LLVL
MOISTURE WITH DWPTS WARMING BACK INTO THE 60S...WL INCREASE THE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDESTORM WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS OF 50KTS OR GREATER.

HAVE INCLUDED VRB 20-30KT GUSTS 40-50KT FOR AN HOUR OR SO. WINDS
WILL PROBABLY GUST OUT OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION, BUT TOO UNCERTAIN
TO BE SPECIFIC. BEST GUESS IS STARTING AROUND 00Z AT
KPBG/KSLK/KMSS AND 0030Z AT KBTV AND 0130 AT KRUT AND 02Z AT MPV.

HAVE OBSERVED WINDS GUSTED TO 57KT AT KGTB EARLIER AT NEAR 23Z.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED TO IFR AT TIMES FOR ABOUT
AN HOUR BUT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY KEPT IT IN FOR A COUPLE HOURS.
WILL HANDLE STORMS WITH TEMPO GROUPS AS THEY DEVELOP.

WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON WED AFTER
12Z WITH A SCT CLOUD DECK. SOME CHANCE OF -SHRA/TSRA AGAIN WED BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THU - SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN
MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NEILES/SISSON

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
903 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TUPPER LAKE             44.22N  74.46W
07/08/2014                   FRANKLIN           NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1400107

HANSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
924 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HOGANSBURG              44.97N  74.66W
07/08/2014                   FRANKLIN           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1400108

HANSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
939 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SOUTH BURLINGTON        44.47N  73.17W
07/08/2014                   CHITTENDEN         VT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE BRANCHES DOWN ON KENNEDY... SPEAR... AND DORSET
            STREETS. ALSO... NO POWER IN SOUTH BURLINGTON AREA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1400109

TABER

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