Small Craft Advisory 32, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
206 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST AS IT
EXITS NE TEXAS WHILE PIECE OF ENERGY IS LEFT OVER WESTERN MEXICO.
AT THIS TIME...THE UPPER WAVE HAS PUSHED A FRONT ACROSS THE CWA
INCREASING WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH OR
MORE. THE BREEZE TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH ENHANCEMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED TO THE UPPER WAVE AND THE
DIFFLUENCE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION.
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISH BUT CAN NOT RULED OUT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS. DRY AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL FILTER IN QUICKLY
BREAKING CURRENT OVC CLOUD DECK AND ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT. LOWER TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MORE WITH WHAT
WAS INHERITED AS MET AND MAV ARE TRENDING LOWER. 925 MB WINDS SHOW
A POCKET OF 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GFS AND NAM ARE BOTH SHOWING STRONG SIGNALS OF
THIS SO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WIND OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS AND QUICKLY DIMINISH BY SUNRISE.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
GULF ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM. DRY AIR FILTERING IN WITH THE NW FLOW WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN INTO THE UPPER 60S AND NEAR 70S ACROSS
THE WEST WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN BE A LOT
LIGHTER THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINATE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AS WE APPROACH THE VERNAL
/SPRING/ EQUINOX. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOUTH TEXAS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. GULF MOISTURE DOES RETURN
THOUGH AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AS A TAIL END
OF A WEAKENING FRONT KNOCKS ON THE DOOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY. BROAD LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH A DEEP CYCLONE MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL INDUCE A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA WITH SW DOWNSLOPE WINDS AT
850-700MB. THIS FLOW IS NOT EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG AND 850MB TEMPS ARE
NOT INDICATED TO WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY BUT JUST ENOUGH FOR
MAXIMUMS TO INCREASE 12 TO 20 DEGREES OVER MONDAY HIGHS. THIS WILL
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE LOWER AND MID VALLEY
AND 90S OUT WEST.

WINDS BACK MORE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DAMPENS OUT
AS IT TRACKS EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AS WINDS
RETURN OFF OF THE COOLER GULF. TEMPERATURES WILL TO REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
EAST TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND APPROACHES THE COASTAL BEND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE CHARTS SHOW THIS MOISTURE DEEPENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE THE AREA WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. ADDED IN
SLIGHT CHANCES ONLY ON THURSDAY AT THIS TIME. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A MORE EASTERLY FLOW TO ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING ON
THURSDAY WHICH DROPS TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

AS WE APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH EDGES
NORTH WITH THE ZONAL FLOW PERSISTING. LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER
TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTH TEXAS WHILE GFS KEEPS THIS
FEATURE WELL NORTH. BOTH MODELS GUIDANCE DO SHOW VERY LOW CHANCES
OF RAIN BUT DO NOT SEE A SUFFICIENT DEPTH OF MOISTURE OR A LIFTING
MECHANISM TO PRODUCE MORE THEN AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS OR RIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP. WILL KEEP
FORECAST RELATIVELY DRY AT THIS TIME WITH CHANCES REMAIN LOW.
OVERALL EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MODEST HUMIDITY AS WINDS
REMAIN ON SHORE KEEPING THE STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE GOING.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BUILD SEAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A SCA IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA AND GULF WATERS THROUGH THE DAY INTO TOMORROW.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE NORTHERN GULF
WATER MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO LOWER.
BY MONDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SE WITH LOW SEAS ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WINDS DO
BACK MORE EASTERLY LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING
FRONT MOVE INTO THE COASTAL BEND REGION. THE ON SHORE FLOW WEAKENS
AND SEAS TO FALL TO LOW LEVELS. THE MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN
FRIDAY AND FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  51  66  51  81 /  10  10   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          49  68  50  84 /  10  10   0   0
HARLINGEN            49  67  48  86 /  10  10   0   0
MCALLEN              49  70  48  87 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      48  71  48  90 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   53  65  53  76 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ130-
     132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ170.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
     GMZ170.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ150-155-175.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM
BILLINGS...GRAPHICS/PSU

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
356 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

TXZ248>257-172100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
356 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-172100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
356 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MARINE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM SOUTH
OF THE PORT MANSFIELD CUT. THE REMAINING MARINE AREAS ARE UNDER A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUES FOR ALL MARINE ZONES ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.