Small Craft Advisory 1, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1135 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND MIST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
CEILINGS WERE NEAR 300FT AT KEBG AND KT65 TO NEAR 2000FT AT KHBV.
VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 2SM WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MIST AT KSPL AND KT65
TO NEAR 5SM WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MIST AT SEVERAL AERODROMES ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE DEVELOPING AT THE REGIONAL
AIRPORTS AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IFR CONDITIONS
MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. ANY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO LAST VERY
LONG AND REMAIN OMITTED FROM THE TAFS. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO
BELOW AVERAGE ON THE LOWER CIGS IF THEY PERSIST BEYOND 18Z. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO TONIGHT
BUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND CURRENT TRENDS OF A WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH AND JET ENERGY SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS BECOME DOMINATE
VFR WITH SOME TEMPO MVFR LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TODAY INCREASING FROM THE
NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THURSDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...HAPPY NEW YEAR'S TO EVERYONE
FROM THE WFO BROWNSVILLE/RIO GRANDE VALLEY STAFF. THE SUN WILL COME
OUT TOMORROW YOU CAN BET YOUR BOTTOM DOLLAR. HOWEVER STILL CLOUDY
THIS NEW YEAR'S DAY WITH A GRADUAL THINNING OF THE CLOUDS LATER
TODAY AS THE OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS BEGIN TO WANE. THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO SHEAR OUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND NORTHERN JET
SLIDES DOWN THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. IT WILL STILL TAKE ANOTHER 18 TO 24
HOURS FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN TROUGH TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION
BEFORE WE SEE THE FULL GLOW OF THE WARM SUN. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING USHERING IN A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS.
TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOL BUT WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO FULL SUNSHINE.

TODAY...JET ENERGY AND PERTURBATIONS ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
STILL PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN. AS THE
SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST THE RAIN
SHOULD ABATE.  ISENTROPIC CHARTS SHOW THE CROSS ISOBARIC FLOW
BECOMING MORE PARALLEL AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS CONTINUE
TO RISE. THIS SHOULD PUT THE END TO THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON IF NOT
EARLIER. MODEL GUIDANCE AND FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY WITH GFS GUIDANCE  SUGGESTING
TEMPERATURES BREAKING 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS WHILE THE NAM AND EC
RANGE FROM MID 50S TO MID 60S. CLOUDS AND HOW THIN THEY BECOME AND
THE WET GROUND AND LOW SUN ANGLE WILL ALL PLAY A FACTOR ON HOW WARM
IT GETS OR HOW COOL IT STAYS. FORECAST TRENDS IN THE UPPER 50S
CENTRAL AND EAST AND LOWER 60S OUT WEST WHERE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE
LEAKS THROUGH THE CLOUDS.

TONIGHT...SKIES CONTINUE TO THIN AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND UPPER JET
FINALLY PUSH TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S MOST
LOCALS WHICH ARE JUST BELOW MODEL CONSENSUS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO
NO WIND CHILL PROBLEMS.

THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY
MORNING BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM ACROSS THE NORTH AND 6 TO 9 AM IN THE
SOUTH. ONE COULD CALL THIS A COLD FRONT BUT TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL
WARMER THEN THE LAST 3 DAYS. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WITH WITH THIS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS INFILTRATING THE
REGION ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTH WIND.  FINALLY THE SUN WILL SHINE IN
ALL ITS GLORY AS THE RIDGE SETTLES IN AND THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT.
MID TO UPPER WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST INSTEAD OF SOUTHWEST WITH THE
MEAN RH AROUND 20 PERCENT BETWEEN 900 AND 300MB. ENJOY THE SUNSHINE
BECAUSE IT MIGHT NOT LAST TOO LONG. HAPPY NEW YEARS AGAIN.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING DRIER AIR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...AND IS STILL TRENDING DOWN WITH TEMPS...THOUGH IN SMALLER
DOSES. NUDGED THE INHERITED LOWS DOWN BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES...WITH THE
RESULT THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MID 30S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RANCH LANDS
WITH SOME LOWER 30S AND EVEN SOME SPOTTY FREEZING MARKS POSSIBLE.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS
FRIDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...BUT ANY LGT NORTH WINDS SEEN IN THE MORNING WILL BE
REPLACED BY WEAK SOUTHEAST WINDS LATE IN THE DAY AS OVERHEAD HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. THEN TOO...A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...
COUPLING WITH A DESCENDING POLAR VORTEX...WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM
WESTERN CANADA INTO THE PLAINS...CAUSING PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE RETURN FLOW.
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL OPEN THE TAP ON SOME COLDER...ARCTIC AIR
WHICH WILL ARRIVE IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV ON SUNDAY AS A
COLD FRONT. ARRIVING LATER IN THE DAY AND AS A GLANCING BLOW...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD NOT BE GREATLY AFFECTED. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE 10
TO 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY...TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST...AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVERALL. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL FORM POST
FRONT...AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
A COOLER THAN NORMAL FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY ONLY SMALL AMOUNTS OF LIGHT PRECIP OVER
LAND...IF ANY.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS THIS NEW YEARS DAY FINALLY ABATE
AND WILL BE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE. SEAS IN THE MOST PART
WILL BE LOW BUT A HIGHER LONG PERIOD FROM THE EAST COULD AFFECT
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH TODAY. THIS LOW TO INTERACT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DIRECTING THIS SWELL WESTWARD.
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSTED FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE WATER
AS SOME OF THIS SWELL MOVES IN LATER TODAY. CONDITIONS REMAIN
OVERALL FAVORABLE TONIGHT BEFORE NORTH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
EARLY THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ON THURSDAY
WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENING BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW
PRESSURE AREA WHICH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. NORTH
WINDS BECOME QUITE STRONG WITH SOME GUST POSSIBLE APPROACHING
GALE FORCE. BELIEVE THE LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO
KEEP THE GALES EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS TO RESPOND WITH
THE STRONGER NORTH WINDS AND BUILD RAPIDLY REACHING 9 FEET
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD
OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG
NORTH WINDS WEAKENING TO MODERATE EAST ON FRIDAY...AND WAVE HTS
DROPPING BELOW SEVEN FT FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY
EAST WHILE PRESSURES FALL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN
MDT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH A COLD FRONT PUNCHING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF STRONG
NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY EVENING...CAUSING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS...BUT SIGNIFICANT TOO WILL BE REINFORCING
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OUT OVER THE NORTH GULF...WHICH WILL VEER
WINDS TO NORTHEAST AND KEEP THEM MDT TO STRONG MONDAY AND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...WHILE ALSO MAINTAINING ELEVATED SEAS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/63/CAMPBELL/BILLINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
521 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014

TXZ248>257-021130-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
521 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LIGHT FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY
MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS INCLUDING THE TOWNS
OF HEBBRONVILLE AND FALFURRIAS.

THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THURSDAY AND REMAINING
ELEVATED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-021130-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
521 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND
THE OFFSHORE WATERS THURSDAY AND JUST FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE WITH A SURGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO SOUTH TEXAS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE THE COASTAL WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.