Freeze Warning 7, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1132 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING MVFR CIG IS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 18 HOURS. THE CIG WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER IN THE COASTAL
COUNTIES BUT SHOULD STAY ABOVE 1000 FT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN PERSISTENT FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
AFTER SUNSET ON TUESDAY CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR
BEFORE WORSENING AGAIN LATER IN THE NIGHT. DRIZZLE/RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIME BUT VISBY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE OPERATIONAL
IMPACT THRESHOLDS. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST HAVE
IMPROVED VISIBILITIES MARKEDLY...AND THEREFORE THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND FROM 0 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES
OFFSHORE UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING HAS BEEN CANCELLED ABOUT AN
HOUR EARLY. NO OTHER SHORT TERM FORECAST CHANGES MADE. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...PURE VFR WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FIND THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. PREVIOUS FOG OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS COAST IS PUSHING
INLAND AND CAUSING LOWERED CEILINGS AT HRL AND BRO...AIDED BY
BREEZY WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD REACH MFE
WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOWERED CEILINGS AND VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IN-SITU
WEB CAMERAS...AND A TELEPHONE CALL TO THE UNITED STATES COAST
GUARD INDICATE THAT DENSE FOG IS AFFECTING THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/S COLD FRONT. THIS FOG SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS UNTIL INCREASING WINDS OFFSHORE
DISSIPATES THE FOG. ALSO...EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
THE LAGUNA MADRE THROUGH TOMORROW...AS WINDS LOOK TO STAY IN THE
20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. NO OTHER SHORT TERM FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
UPDATED PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...THE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM BROWNSVILLE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGER NORTH WINDS REMAIN NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY HAVE
SPIKED INTO TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ALONG THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURGE
OF MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
APPEAR SLIM FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SHALLOW LIFT AND
LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG
THE COAST. A WEAK OVERRUNNING PATTERN SETS UP LATER THIS EVENING
AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. RAIN
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH THE
HIGH POPS NEAR THE COAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
RANCHLANDS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...UPPER 30S
RANCHLANDS MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FOR
RATHER COLD AND BREEZY DAY ON TUESDAY. WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES
FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT IN INTACT FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH POPS NEAR THE COAST AND LESSER AMOUNTS FAR INLAND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50
NEAR THE COAST. REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING RESULTING IN BREEZY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WILL PUSH WINDS INTO THE CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS
BY LATE IN THE DAY.

UPPER LEVEL LOW/UPPER TROUGH...SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS HANDLE
THIS FEATURE DIFFERENTLY WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SLOWER AND THE NAM/CMC A
BIT FASTER. THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ALONG AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL DETERMINE IF ANY WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA. THE FORECAST IS BASED OFF OF THE WETTER AND
FASTER NAM/CMC AND AVAILABLE MODEL SOUNDINGS. WILL GO WITH LIGHT
RAIN WITH PERIODS OF SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THEN VERY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST JUST BEFORE SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. ALSO A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...CONTINUING WINTER WEATHER
SCENARIO FOR THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTS EWD ACROSS THE
AREA AND OVERNIGHT LOWS REACHING THE FREEZING POINT AT THE SFC.
AGAIN...MINUTE DIFFERENCES IN THE MIDLEVEL LOW POSITIONING AND
TIMING HAVE SIGNIFICANT BEARING ON PRECIP TYPE AND COVERAGE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE SKOSH FASTER TIMING OF THE NAM AND CANADIAN
MODELS...WHICH HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. GOING CLOSER TO THOSE MODELS...THE SOUNDINGS HAVE LARGER
AREAS OF SUBFREEZING TEMPS ALOFT...WHICH BRINGS A WIDER SWATH OF
SLEET TO AREAS GENERALLY NW OF THE LINE FROM RAYMONDVILLE TO KMFE.
TEMPERATURES RISE STEADILY ENOUGH AND THE TROUGH DEPARTS QUICKLY
ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIP AFTER MIDMORNING SHOULD BE TRANSITIONING TO
ALL LIQUID THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. WITH THE TROUGH EXITING
MORE RAPIDLY...THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL REESTABLISH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...DRYING MOST OF THE PARCEL OUT AND MINIMIZING THE CHANCE
FOR COASTAL TROUGHING. RETURN FLOW STARTS UP PROMPTLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE MID 60S. FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EACH DAY
THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 REPORTED NORTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS AROUND 2.3 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 6 TO 10 FEET
BY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL INCREASE WINDS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT AND GALE WARNINGS MAY BECOME
NECESSARY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AGITATED MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SEAS CONTINUING AT 8 TO 10 FEET INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY RELAXING. WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL BE
FINALLY LOWERING BELOW 20 KNOTS AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY. SOUTH WINDS
WILL REESTABLISH ON THURSDAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST...AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...REACHING AROUND 15 KNOTS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZE WATCH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ249-250.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/54

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
545 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

TXZ248>257-281200-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
545 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS LIKELY AT THE LOCAL BEACHES
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR JIM HOGG AND BROOKS COUNTY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

FROZEN PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET...
IS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-281200-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
545 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF
OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND FROM 0 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES
OFFSHORE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND ADJACENT GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY EVENING.

ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.