Freeze Warning 2, NWS Brownsville, TX

533 
WWUS74 KBRO 060311
NPWBRO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
911 PM CST SUN JAN 5 2014

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING VERY COLD WEATHER LATER TONIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S
FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...BUT
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RANCH LANDS OF JIM
HOGG...BROOKS...ZAPATA AND KENEDY COUNTIES.

TXZ248>253-061200-
/O.CON.KBRO.FZ.W.0002.140106T0800Z-140106T1400Z/
/O.CON.KBRO.FZ.A.0003.140107T0600Z-140107T1400Z/
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...
SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...
MISSION...WESLACO
911 PM CST SUN JAN 5 2014

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CST
MONDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

* TEMPERATURE...28 TO 32 LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING 
  AND 26 TO 30 LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY 
  NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 

* IMPACT...SOME DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS AND 
  CROPS. PLAN TO COVER OR BRING INDOORS THESE PLANTS DURING THE 
  NEXT 24 HOURS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
TO BETWEEN 28 AND 32 DEGREES FOR 2 OR MORE HOURS OVER A
WIDESPREAD AREA.

RESIDENTS SHOULD COVER OR MOVE INDOORS ANY COLD SENSITIVE
PLANTS...AND BRING PETS INDOORS THIS EVENING.

A FREEZE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 2 OR MORE HOURS OF
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 32 DEGREES WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

&&

$$

TXZ254-255-061200-
/O.CON.KBRO.FZ.A.0003.140107T0600Z-140107T1400Z/
INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN
911 PM CST SUN JAN 5 2014

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

* TEMPERATURE...30 TO 32 LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY 
  MORNING. 

* TIMING...LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACT...SOME DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE TO COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS AND 
  CROPS. PLAN TO COVER OR BRING INDOORS THESE PLANTS DURING THE 
  NEXT 24 HOURS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 2 OR MORE HOURS OF
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 32 DEGREES WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

&&

$$

427 
WWUS74 KBRO 060720
NPWBRO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
120 AM CST MON JAN 6 2014

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING VERY COLD WEATHER LATER TONIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S
FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...BUT
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RANCH LANDS OF JIM
HOGG...BROOKS...ZAPATA AND KENEDY COUNTIES.

TXZ248-251>253-061330-
/O.CAN.KBRO.FZ.W.0002.140106T0800Z-140106T1400Z/
/O.CON.KBRO.FZ.A.0003.140107T0600Z-140107T1400Z/
ZAPATA-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...
ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...MISSION...WESLACO
120 AM CST MON JAN 6 2014

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...
...FREEZE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS CANCELLED THE
FREEZE WARNING. 

* TEMPERATURE...AS LOW AS 28 TO 31 LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
  TUESDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACT...SOME DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS AND 
  CROPS. PLAN TO COVER OR BRING INDOORS THESE PLANTS DURING THE 
  NEXT 24 HOURS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 2 OR MORE HOURS OF
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 32 DEGREES WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

&&

$$

TXZ249-250-061330-
/O.CON.KBRO.FZ.W.0002.140106T0800Z-140106T1400Z/
/O.CON.KBRO.FZ.A.0003.140107T0600Z-140107T1400Z/
JIM HOGG-BROOKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS
120 AM CST MON JAN 6 2014

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

* TEMPERATURE...28 TO 32 LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING 
  AND 26 TO 32 LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY 
  NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 

* IMPACT...SOME DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS AND 
  CROPS. PLAN TO COVER OR BRING INDOORS THESE PLANTS DURING THE 
  NEXT 24 HOURS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
TO BETWEEN 28 AND 32 DEGREES FOR 2 OR MORE HOURS OVER A
WIDESPREAD AREA.

RESIDENTS SHOULD COVER OR MOVE INDOORS ANY COLD SENSITIVE
PLANTS...AND BRING PETS INDOORS THIS EVENING.

A FREEZE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 2 OR MORE HOURS OF
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 32 DEGREES WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

&&

$$

TXZ254-255-061330-
/O.CON.KBRO.FZ.A.0003.140107T0600Z-140107T1400Z/
INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN
120 AM CST MON JAN 6 2014

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

* TEMPERATURE...30 TO 32 LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY 
  MORNING. 

* TIMING...LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACT...SOME DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE TO COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS AND 
  CROPS. PLAN TO COVER OR BRING INDOORS THESE PLANTS DURING THE 
  NEXT 24 HOURS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 2 OR MORE HOURS OF
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 32 DEGREES WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

&&

$$

457 
WWUS74 KBRO 060814
NPWBRO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
214 AM CST MON JAN 6 2014

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.VERY COLD AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING EARLY MONDAY MORNING NEAR
HEBBRONVILLE AND FALFURRIAS...AND A LARGER AREA MAY SEE BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUD
COVER AND WEAKENING WINDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN
PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...BUT A FREEZE
REMAINS POSSIBLE AND THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN CONTINUED. 

TXZ254-255-060915-
/O.CAN.KBRO.FZ.A.0003.140107T0600Z-140107T1400Z/
INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN
214 AM CST MON JAN 6 2014

...FREEZE WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS CANCELLED THE
FREEZE WATCH. 

INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER HAVE REDUCED THE CHANCE OF AN
EXTENDED FREEZE OVER CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTY TO THE POINT THE
FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

TXZ249-250-061615-
/O.UPG.KBRO.FZ.A.0003.140107T0600Z-140107T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KBRO.FZ.W.0003.140107T0600Z-140107T1400Z/
/O.CON.KBRO.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140106T1400Z/
JIM HOGG-BROOKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS
214 AM CST MON JAN 6 2014

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING...
...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO 8 AM CST
TUESDAY. THIS REPLACES THE FREEZE WATCH. A FREEZE WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY MORNING. 

* TEMPERATURE...28 TO 32 EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND 26 TO 32 LATE
  MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
  TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACT...SOME DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS AND 
  CROPS. PLAN TO COVER OR BRING INDOORS THESE PLANTS DURING THE 
  NEXT 24 HOURS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
TO BETWEEN 28 AND 32 DEGREES FOR 2 OR MORE HOURS OVER A
WIDESPREAD AREA.

RESIDENTS SHOULD COVER OR MOVE INDOORS ANY COLD SENSITIVE
PLANTS...AND BRING PETS INDOORS THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

TXZ248-061615-
/O.UPG.KBRO.FZ.A.0003.140107T0600Z-140107T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KBRO.FZ.W.0003.140107T0600Z-140107T1400Z/
ZAPATA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ZAPATA
214 AM CST MON JAN 6 2014

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST
TUESDAY. THIS REPLACES THE FREEZE WATCH.

* TEMPERATURE...AS LOW AS 28 TO 31 LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY 
  TUESDAY MORNING. 

* TIMING...EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACT...SOME DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS AND 
  CROPS. PLAN TO COVER OR BRING INDOORS THESE PLANTS DURING THE 
  NEXT 24 HOURS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
TO BETWEEN 28 AND 32 DEGREES FOR 2 OR MORE HOURS OVER A
WIDESPREAD AREA.

RESIDENTS SHOULD COVER OR MOVE INDOORS ANY COLD SENSITIVE
PLANTS...AND BRING PETS INDOORS THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

TXZ251>253-061615-
/O.CON.KBRO.FZ.A.0003.140107T0600Z-140107T1400Z/
KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...
MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...MISSION...WESLACO
214 AM CST MON JAN 6 2014

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

* TEMPERATURE...AS LOW AS 28 TO 31 LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY 
  TUESDAY MORNING. 

* TIMING...EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACT...SOME DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS AND 
  CROPS. PLAN TO COVER OR BRING INDOORS THESE PLANTS DURING THE 
  NEXT 24 HOURS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 2 OR MORE HOURS OF
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 32 DEGREES WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

&&

$$

JGG

513 
WWUS74 KBRO 061321
NPWBRO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
721 AM CST MON JAN 6 2014

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT...

.VERY COLD AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A LARGE AREA MAY SEE BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUD
COVER AND WEAKENING WINDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN
PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...BUT A FREEZE
REMAINS POSSIBLE AND THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN CONTINUED.

TXZ249-250-062130-
/O.CAN.KBRO.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140106T1400Z/
/O.CON.KBRO.FZ.W.0003.140107T0600Z-140107T1400Z/
JIM HOGG-BROOKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS
721 AM CST MON JAN 6 2014

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM
CST TUESDAY...
...FREEZE WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS CANCELLED THE
FREEZE WARNING. 

* TEMPERATURE...26 TO 32 LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
  MORNING.

* TIMING...MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACT...SOME DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS AND
  CROPS. PLAN TO COVER OR BRING INDOORS THESE PLANTS TONIGHT INTO
  TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
TO BETWEEN 28 AND 32 DEGREES FOR 2 OR MORE HOURS OVER A
WIDESPREAD AREA.

RESIDENTS SHOULD COVER OR MOVE INDOORS ANY COLD SENSITIVE
PLANTS...AND BRING PETS INDOORS THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

TXZ248-062130-
/O.CON.KBRO.FZ.W.0003.140107T0600Z-140107T1400Z/
ZAPATA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ZAPATA
721 AM CST MON JAN 6 2014

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM
CST TUESDAY...

* TEMPERATURE...AS LOW AS 28 TO 31 LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY 
  TUESDAY MORNING. 

* TIMING...EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACT...SOME DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS AND 
  CROPS. PLAN TO COVER OR BRING INDOORS THESE PLANTS DURING THE 
  NEXT 24 HOURS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
TO BETWEEN 28 AND 32 DEGREES FOR 2 OR MORE HOURS OVER A
WIDESPREAD AREA.

RESIDENTS SHOULD COVER OR MOVE INDOORS ANY COLD SENSITIVE
PLANTS...AND BRING PETS INDOORS THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

TXZ251>253-062130-
/O.CON.KBRO.FZ.A.0003.140107T0600Z-140107T1400Z/
KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...
MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...MISSION...WESLACO
721 AM CST MON JAN 6 2014

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

* TEMPERATURE...AS LOW AS 28 TO 31 LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY 
  TUESDAY MORNING. 

* TIMING...EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACT...SOME DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS AND 
  CROPS. PLAN TO COVER OR BRING INDOORS THESE PLANTS DURING THE 
  NEXT 24 HOURS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 2 OR MORE HOURS OF
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 32 DEGREES WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1205 PM CST SUN JAN 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG COLD EXTENDING EAST OF MFE TO HRL TO SOUTH OF
PORT MANSFIELD WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
BRO AROUND 1830Z. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS. LATEST
SATELLITE AND UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME LOW
CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL MENTION A TEMPO GROUP FOR POSSIBLE
MVFR CEILINGS AT TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CST SUN JAN 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE STRONG ARCTIC COLD EXTENDING FROM RIO GRANDE
CITY TO MCCOOK TO ARMSTRONG...WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY
1 PM. COLDER AIR AND STRONG NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO LOWER TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD.

MARINE...THE STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. STRONG TO VERY STRONG
NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE
LAGUNA MADRE AT 3 PM HAS BEEN PUSHED UP. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST SUN JAN 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH
WINDS. JUST A BIT OF FOG REPORTED ON THE ISLAND. HIGH CIRRUS
FROM THE WEST IS OVERSPREADING THE REGION...WHILE LOW CLOUDS
REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE LOWER
VALLEY MID AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING AND THEN BECOMING BREEZY TO STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WITH THE FRONT. CLOUDS WILL THEN THICKEN UP...BUT THE
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. DRY AIR AND DISPLACED DYNAMICS WILL
BRING ONLY VERY SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CST SUN JAN 5 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT IS EVIDENT...VIA SFC OBS AND SATELLITE...MOVING THROUGH THE
SAN ANGELO AREA THIS MORNING...ON TRACK TO BEGIN SHIFTING WINDS TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RANCH LANDS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RGV AT OR JUST BEFORE NOON. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON WITH AND
AFTER THE FRONT AS A COLD AIR MASS MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...
WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY. LITTLE IF
ANY PRECIP IS BEING FORECAST RIGHT NOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD MAKE
IT INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR THE LOWER VALLEY BY THIS AFTN...BEFORE THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO
THE LOWER 60S FOR THE UPPER VALLEY AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS ARRIVING
BEFORE MAXIMUM HEATING IS REALIZED.

FROM THERE...TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE STEADILY...REACHING THE 30S
FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF THE CWA TONIGHT. THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE PREVALENT...A BRIEF FREEZE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RANCH LANDS. AS WELL...WINDS WILL BE
JUST HIGH ENOUGH...AROUND 10 MPH...TO MEET CRITERIA FOR A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...AGAIN FOR A BRIEF FEW HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OUT OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH DAY
TIME HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S AND PERHAPS JUST INTO THE 50S NEAR THE
COAST. NORTH WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY UNDER STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. JUDGING BY THE DEPTH OF NORTH WINDS ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...
THE WEDGE OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 5 AND 6 KFT DEEP...WITH
THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL COOLING AROUND 900 MB...WHERE A FEW CLOUDS
MAY FORM BELOW A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER CANOPY...THE CANOPY BEING
COURTESY OF A RESIDUAL MID LEVEL WEAKNESS TO THE WEST.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR DYNAMIC AND COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN FINDS MONDAY NIGHT NO
EXCEPTION. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE ESTABLISHED AN
AXIS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH ECM/GFS/NAM AGREEING ON ABOUT
1036-1038MB AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCH LANDS...BUT LOW TO MID 30S IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER VALLEY WHERE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
DECOUPLE EARLY IN THE EVENING AND ALLOW THE WINDS TO GO CALM IN THE
NORTH EARLY IN THE NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND A BROAD JET MAXIMUM EMERGES OFF THE LEE OF
THE SIERRA MADRE/ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS KEEPS THE 500-700MB LAYER
RELATIVELY SATURATED AND INCLUDES MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 305K
WHICH IS AT 650 TO 700MB IN THIS TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS BUT IT IS SLOWER WITH THE 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ADDS SOME MID LEVEL LIFT/DCVA TO THE EQUATION. IT DOES
MAKE SENSE THAT THE SHORTWAVE WOULD MOVE A LITTLE SLOWER AS IT WAITS
ON A PUSH FROM THE EMERGING ROCKIES JET MAXIMUM AND THE GFS/NAM MAY
BE TOO QUICK. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH A COUPLE OF THESE WEAK
SEMI-CUT OFF TROUGHS SO FAR THIS SEASON.

THIS CREATES A BIT OF A QUANDARY FOR THE FORECAST. RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY POOR BY 3 TO 4 AM OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA BUT MAY BE PRETTY GOOD IN THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE CLOUD
COVER DEVELOPS AND/OR IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP THAN FORECAST.
MET/MAV/ECM MOS IS CALLING FOR LOWS AROUND 25 TO 26 AT HBV/BKS AND
32/33 AT HRL/MFE. HOWEVER THE LIGHT NORTH WIND IS PROBABLY
OVERSTATING THE EFFECTS OF OVERNIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND WINDS
WILL PROBABLY BE LESS THAN WHAT THE MOS INDICATES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTH POLE ORIGINATING AIR MASS IS
PROBABLY A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE CLIMO SET USED BY THE MOS NORMALLY
SEES...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE PLAINS SEEM TO SUPPORT
THAT. AT THE SAME TIME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE
MID LEVEL ASCENT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL...NORTH OF THE VALLEY...BE
FALLING THROUGH A VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND EXPECT THAT WET BULB
COOLING WILL PLAY A ROLE IN LOWERING TEMPS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES.

SO WITH ALL THAT SAID CONTINUED TO FORECAST FREEZING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT ROUGHLY NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM RIO GRANDE CITY...TO
LASARA...TO HIGHWAY 77 IN KENEDY COUNTY AND HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH FOR KENEDY/BROOKS/JIM HOGG/ZAPATA COUNTIES. NORTHERN HIDALGO
AND STARR COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME SUB FREEZING MINS BUT THE NUMBER OF
HOURS NEEDED FOR FREEZE WARNING WERE NOT MET IN THE NEW FORECAST.
ALSO BELIEVE THAT INCREASING DEW POINTS/MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA WILL FURTHER PROTECT THE VALLEY FROM SUB FREEZING
TEMPS AND ACTUALLY NUDGED UP OVERNIGHT MINS IN PLACES WITH 35 AT MFE
36 HRL 39 BRO FOR EXAMPLE. REGARDING PRECIPITATION NAM/GFS/ECMWF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN ISOTHERMAL LAYER
BELOW 700MB BELOW AN INCREASINGLY SATURATED DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH
REGION. THERE IS A WARMER LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE BUT THAT IS HOUSED
IN A VERY DRY REGION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. MOST LIKELY ANY
PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS WILL EVAPORATE IN THAT LAYER BUT IF IT DOES
REACH THE GROUND IT WOULD MOSTLY FALL AS SNOW...WITH WET BULB
COOLING WIPING OUT THE SMALL AREA OF 1 TO 2 C TEMPS AT AROUND 850MB
IN ORDER FOR THE AIR MASS TO SATURATE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIP. IN
THE VALLEY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT ANY TYPE OF
FROZEN PRECIP...AND THE PRECIP CHANCE IS ONLY 20 PERCENT FOR NOW.

TEMPS WARM UP ON TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST
AND WE GET INTO A RETURN FLOW PATTERN. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S BUT WARMER THAN MONDAY. UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS AND REINFORCES SURFACE LEE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST
WHICH INTERACTS TO VARYING DEGREES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO KEEPING THE VALLEY WIND MACHINE
GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE...PERHAPS A LITTLE LOWER ON FRIDAY. POOR MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH WINDS OVER THE GULF GENERALLY AT OR CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE
COLD NEAR SHORE WATERS AND LAGUNA MADRE WILL PROBABLY SEE SUB
ADVISORY WINDS PART OF THE WEEK BUT SEAS MAY BE CHURNED UP ENOUGH BY
A LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH TO REQUIRE ADVISORIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP INTO THE LOW 70S WEDNESDAY AND STAIR STEP INTO THE LOW 80S BY
FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF REGARDING THE HANDLING OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH AND
ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ECMWF CLOSES THE LOW OFF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
LAGS IT BEHIND LONG ENOUGH FOR A REINFORCING JET MAX TO SHIFT ITS
TILT NEGATIVE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH MORE
PROGRESSIVE...OPEN AND POSITIVELY TILTED AND SENDS A FRONT THROUGH
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF SOLUTION PROVIDES BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN. A FEW GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOLLOW THE ECMWFS PATTERN OF A SLOWER WAVE
PROGRESSION. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER IN RECENT
RUNS.

FORECAST WISE WENT WITH A FASTER VERSION OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH
THE IDEA OF A LITTLE LESS NEGATIVE TILT ON THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS
PROVIDES FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF. THUNDER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LIMITED
BY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAPPING/DRYING OUR 700MB LAYER IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. PRELIMINARILY AS WELL THE SOURCE AIR MASS REGION FOR THIS
FRONT WILL NOT BE IN QUITE AS BARREN COLD A PLACE AS OUR UPCOMING
FRONT SO ANY TEMPERATURE CHANGES POST FRONTAL WOULD LIKELY NOT BE AS
EXTREME. WILL BE WORKING ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT GETS
CLOSER. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS ARE HOVERING NEAR 20
KNOTS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...THOUGH SEAS ARE BIT BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 5 FEET. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND VEER FROM MID MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO MOVE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN AROUND NOON AND 6 PM. STRONG NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERATE GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 10
FEET OFFSHORE. RECOVERY WILL OCCUR SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...HAVING REPLACED THE GALE WARNING OVER THE GULF EARLIER
IN THE DAY...MAY BE DROPPED OVER THE LAGUNA SOMETIME MONDAY...BUT
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITERIA ALL DAY. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING DEVELOPS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY DUE TO RESIDUAL STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SEAS BECOMING AND REMAINING ROUGH ONCE
AGAIN. THERE MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS BUT
A LONG PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS AND SEAS MAY BE ROUGH ENOUGH
NEAR SHORE TO REQUIRE ADVISORIES. THE LAGUNA MADRE WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  71  39  51  40 /  10  10  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          73  38  51  39 /  10  10  20  20
HARLINGEN            73  35  49  36 /  10   0   0  20
MCALLEN              72  36  48  35 /  10   0   0  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      66  34  49  32 /  10   0   0  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   68  42  53  42 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ248>251.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ248>253.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ248>253.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ130-
     132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
741 AM CST SUN JAN 5 2014

TXZ248>257-061345-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
741 AM CST SUN JAN 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...WHICH WILL INCREASE TO HIGH
TONIGHT.

A FREEZE WATCH FOR ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...BROOKS AND KENEDY COUNTIES IS
IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT.

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT FOR ZAPATA...JIM
HOGG...BROOKS...KENEDY...STARR AND HIDALGO COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SATURDAY.

A FREEZE WATCH FOR ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...KENEDY...STARR
AND HIDALGO COUNTIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-061345-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
741 AM CST SUN JAN 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE GULF THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME A GALE WARNING FOR THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
ON MONDAY.

A GALE WARNING FOR THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS MAY CONTINUE EARLY
MONDAY...BECOMING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.