Freeze Warning 1, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
217 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WELL EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION
COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BECOME
TRICKY AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A LIGHT FREEZE IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY NOT
COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT RESULTING IN LOW TEMPERATURES NOT
FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A MEX/MET BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. HAVE
DECIDED TO GO HEAD AND REPLACE THE FREEZE WATCH WITH A FREEZE
WARNING FOR JIM HOGG...BROOKS AND KENEDY COUNTIES FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TOMORROW RESULTING IN
NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO DEWPOINTS
INCREASING WITH ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500MB LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS CENTRAL UNITED STATES SATURDAY WILL BRING A STRONG COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING
AND THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
MODIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
TEMPERATURES COULD BE COLDER THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING SUN
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ALSO...IT LOOKS LIKE OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL ALSO SEEM SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOP
ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS POST FRONTAL ON SUNDAY. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS WARMER AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST U.S. TUESDAY SHIFTS EASTWARD ALLOWING
AN ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CURRENTLY BUOY020 REPORTING NORTH WINDS
OF 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH SEAS NEAR 10 FEET.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL
ALLOW THE GALE WARNING TO REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM. HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS ON THE LAGUNA MADRE FROM 6 PM TO
MIDNIGHT DUE TO THE PERSIST STRONG NORTH WINDS. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY. NORTH
WINDS TONIGHT WILL VEER TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
TO THE EAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES PROVIDES A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS SUNDAY PROVIDING VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
GALE WARNINGS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING STRONG ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS MONDAY WILL VEER TO
THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  43  64  53  71 /   0   0  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          40  64  53  72 /   0   0  10  10
HARLINGEN            37  64  50  72 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN              36  63  49  72 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      36  62  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   48  64  57  69 /   0   0  10  20
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ249>251.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
     MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ130-132-135.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-
     155-170-175.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63/61/MARTINEZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1216 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014

TXZ248>257-031830-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
1216 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR JIM HOGG...BROOKS...AND KENEDY
COUNTIES FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF A LIGHT FREEZE FOR LATE TONIGHT. NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF WILLACY AND
NORTHERN HIDALGO COUNTIES.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR KENEDY AND COASTAL CAMERON AND
WILLACY COUNTIES FOR TODAY FOR STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH UNTIL 4 PM CST.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JIM HOGG...BROOKS...AND
KENEDY COUNTIES UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.

A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-031830-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
1216 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM TODAY FOR THE LAGUNA
MADRE AND THE GULF WATERS OUT 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.