Coastal Flood Statement 1, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
148 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS
ESTABLISHES N/S ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS
ALLOWED THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PENETRATE FURTHER INLAND
INTO HIDALGO COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RISING AS
EXPECTED...AND ARE WELL INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A BEARING ON THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. THE
FRONT IS PRODUCING AN IMMEDIATE TEMPERATURE DROP OF 20 TO 25
DEGREES WITHIN AN HOUR OF PASSAGE. AT CURRENT SPEEDS...THE INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH HBV AND BKS 9 TO 10PM TONIGHT...AND
INTO THE LOWER VALLEY NO LATER THAN 3AM. TEMPERATURES BY DAWN
MONDAY SHOULD BE MID 30S FOR HBV AND BKS AND UPPER 40S AND STILL
FALLING ALONG THE RIVER. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE PRODUCING LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE FOR THE REGION AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. FORECAST
ISSUE NOW IS WILL ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION FREEZE BEFORE OR AFTER
CONTACT IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
PRONOUNCED SUB-FREEZING LAYER JUST OFF THE SFC WITH A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM LAYER ABOVE IT FOR A COUPLE HOURS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE. THIS
WILL BRING THE PRECIPITATION INITIALLY AS LIQUID RAINFALL FALLING
INTO THE SUBFREEZING LAYER. THAT LAYER MAY SUPERCOOL THE
DRIZZLE...BUT WONT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO COMPLETELY FREEZE IT. NOW
ONCE THIS FALLS INTO THE IMMEDIATE SURFACE LAYER...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...IT WILL STAY AS LIQUID. NOW
THERE MIGHT BE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SURFACES TO BRIEFLY HAVE SOME
FREEZING GLAZE ON THEM AROUND HBV RIGHT AROUND DAWN...BUT DUE TO
THE FACT THAT MOST ITEMS WILL HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY HEATED
EARLIER TODAY...MOST OF THESE ITEMS /SIGNS...FENCES...SMALLER TREE
BRANCHES/ WILL STILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY ICE BEING ABLE
TO ACCUMULATE ON THEM. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AND LARGER EXPOSED
ITEMS SHOULD REMAIN OK. DENSE LOW CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S
TOMORROW...WITH A BRISK BREEZE KEEPING WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND 30 DEGREES. LITTLE IF ANY DIURNAL CHANGE EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER REMAINS FIRM IN THE REGION.
THE NEXT MIDLEVEL WAVE SWEEPS ACROSS TEXAS MONDAY
NIGHT...REENHANCING THE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND WITH GOOD MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A
LITTLE MUCAPE WENT AHEAD AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN ALONG
WITH RAINSHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY BUT SCALED BACK THUNDER TO NORTH OF
THE VALLEY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN TEXAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL AID IN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORM
OF WRAP AROUND SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEST CHANCES OVER THE
GULF WATERS. LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY THURSDAY ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO MOVE IN AND MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE COLUMN WORKS IN
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ALLOWING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO RETURN BY LATE MORNING AS WELL AS THE
MOISTURE TAP. NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH
WILL SUPPORT THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
AND DOWN INTO SOUTH TEXAS IN THE LATE SATURDAY TO SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE EURO AND GFS SO INSERTED
MENTION OF POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TWEAKED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL EXPECTING MOSTLY
40S WITH LOWER 50S IN THE LOWER VALLEY. NUDGED TEMPS UP FOR
WEDNESDAY AS EURO AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN INHERITED SO NUDGED INTO THE 60S. WARMING TREND CONTINUES
THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THE ANTICIPATED
FRONT AND RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NUDGED TEMPS DOWNWARD INTO THE MIDDLE
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...GULF OF MEXICO ZONES REMAIN
STEADY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE...WHILE LAGUNA MADRE WATERS ARE
AT 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA THROUGH 4PM WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX. THE
LATE SEASON COLD FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE REGION STARTING AROUND
MIDNIGHT...ABRUPTLY SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTH INCREASING TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS. A FEW GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 35KTS...BUT NOT NEARLY
ENOUGH TO QUALIFY AS A GALE. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL KICK SEAS UP
TO 8 TO 12 FEET OFFSHORE MONDAY. A BRIEF RELAXING OF CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVES NORTHEAST. ONCE THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL
SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD.
MORE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  45  51  42  54 /  30  40  50  50
BROWNSVILLE          44  47  42  54 /  30  40  50  50
HARLINGEN            40  44  43  54 /  30  40  50  50
MCALLEN              39  42  40  50 /  40  40  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      40  43  39  50 /  40  40  40  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   50  56  46  55 /  30  40  50  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ130-
     132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY
     FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...64
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...MARTINEZ

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