Gale Watch 3, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
355 AM EST FRI JAN 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. OVERNIGHT DRIZZLE...CHANGING TO RAIN IS
EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES RISE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT
THREAT OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
* LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY EFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR SOME *

WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC CLOUD COVER HAS FINALLY TAKEN OVER ACROSS SRN
NEW ENGLAND BUT NOT BEFORE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST TO DIP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS. THIS DESPITE WEAK WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT ALREADY IN ADVANCE OF A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE JUST
TRANSITIONING OUT OF THE OH VALLEY. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE IN THE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT PROVIDED BY THE WARM ADVECTION...NY AND PA RADARS
HAVE SHOWN A DIE BAND LIGHT SNOWFALL GRADUALLY SLIDING E WITH
TIME. THE ERN EDGE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY ERODING AS IT MEETS NEAR SFC
DWPT DEPRESSIONS APPROACHING 10F ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND EVEN
IN THE 30+ DBZ BANDS LITTLE ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED.

NONETHELESS THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE WITHIN THE
COLUMN AND ENOUGH WEAK LIFT TO SUPPORT THIS LIGHT SNOWFALL HOLDING
TOGETHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM W TO E. OVERALL QPF VALUES SHOULD BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH EVERYWHERE AND THE
PRIMARY LAYER OF LIFT IS ABOVE THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGIME.
SO EXPECT RATIOS TO BE LOW IN SPITE OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES.
GIVEN THIS...ONLY EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMS TO REACH AN INCH
OR LESS WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN/CENTRAL MA
AND CT. THE COLD TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL HELP THE SNOW TO
STICK TO SFCS HOWEVER...SO PLAN TO MAINTAIN THE WRN MA/CT SPS FOR
SNOWFALL DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE POTENTIALLY LEADING TO SLICK
SPOTS. IN AREAS IN CT/RI/SE MA ESPECIALLY...THERE MAY BE A QUICK
TRANSITION TO RAIN BEFORE THIS PRECIP ENDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A
WARM AIR MOVES N FROM OFFSHORE. BUT IN ANY CASE PRECIP SHOULD BE
DONE EVERYWHERE BY MID AFTERNOON AS PERIOD OF BEST LIFT ENDS BY
THAT TIME.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS
FINALLY GETTING A BREAK FROM THE FREEZING MARK BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON ONCE THE SNOW/RAIN LIFTS OUT. H92 TEMPS SHOULD APPROACH
0C BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
INITIALLY...DURING THE EVENING HOURS...SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A BRIEF
LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS A DRY LAYER
SHIFTS ALL THE WAY TO THE SFC. THE ONLY HOLDOUT ON THIS IS THE
NAM...WHICH KEEPS A FULLY SATURATED COLUMN FROM THE SFC TO H8 FROM
LATE AFTERNOON UNTIL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION COMBINE
WITH STRONGER MOISTURE FLUX LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN EVEN NAM BASED
SREF ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT THE DRY PUNCH MAKES IT CLOSER TO THE
SFC AS THE H5 RIDGE CRESTS DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WILL LEAN ON A PERIOD WITH LITTLE TO KNOW PRECIP THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT LOCAL.

HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WARM ADVECTION...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND THE
FACT THAT THE COLUMN DOES MOISTURE LOAD FROM NEAR THE SFC
UPWARD...SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE BEGINNING AROUND
MIDNIGHT UNTIL THE STRONGER LIFTS SETS UP IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THEREFORE...HAVE A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE GIVING WAY TO LIKELY
POPS IN THE W BY DAYBREAK.

THE KEY ISSUE WITH THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST WILL BE SFC
TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE H92 0C LINE IS ALREADY AT THE MA/NH BORDER BY 00Z.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL TODAY AND COLD
SFC TEMPERATURES LEFTOVER FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THAT SFC
TEMPS MAY HOLD SOMEWHAT NEAR TO JUST BELOW FREEZING AND GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY EVEN FREEZING RAIN BY
THE EARLY MORNING WHERE TEMPS HOLD CLOSE TO FREEZING. THIS IS
PRIMARILY IN WRN MA AND SRN NH. NOT A COLD AIR DAMMING SETUP
HERE...JUST A STRONG INVERSION BASED ON ALREADY COLD SFC TEMPS AND
SLOWER WARMING. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
DRIZZLE OR HEAVIER PRECIP VS SPEED WITH WHICH SFC TEMPS WARM...WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR LIGHT ICE ACCRETION BUT THE THREAT
IS THERE. DAY CREW CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS AS NEW 12/18Z
DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE AND AN EVENING- OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE TREND
CAN BE BETTER ESTABLISHED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE LATE FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT
* UNSEASONABLY MILD WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS LATE
  SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
* MAINLY DRY AND MILD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...
MODEL SUITE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF ACTIVE FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL BE PRECEDED BY A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST
OF THE MODELS BUT FORECAST IS BASED ON A SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM/ECMWF
BLEND. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH LACK OF HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING
WILL RESULT IN THE MID LEVEL TROF LIFTING TO THE NE DURING SUNDAY
WITH RE- ESTABLISHMENT OF RIDGING OFF THE EAST COAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK MAINTAINING MILD CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION/AMPLITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROF MOVING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST
AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PULSE OF RAIN ASSOCD WITH A COASTAL
WAVE. INHERENT LOW PREDICTABILITY AT THIS TIME RANGE MADE WORSE BY
MODEL SPREAD...BUT IT DOES APPEAR COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE TROF MOVES INTO THE EAST.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
ENHANCING WARM AIR ADVECTION.  DEEPENING MOISTURE AND WEAK MID LEVEL
LIFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIP LATE
FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING.  TEMPS ARE WARMING ALOFT BUT LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR MAY HANG IN ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE
INTERIOR IF THE PRECIP COMES IN FAST ENOUGH. TIMING OF THE PRECIP
WILL DETERMINE IF ADVISORIES ARE NECESSARY.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
MAIN FOCUS FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LATE SAT AND SAT
EVENING AS ANOMALOUS LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  WHILE GFS MAY BE TOO ROBUST WITH
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...ECMWF AROUND 80 KT AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST +3SD ANOMALIES FOR THE LLJ AND PWATS WHICH
SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN...AND PROBS FOR > 1" QPF ARE 60-80
PERCENT. WE HAVE INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF RAINFALL OF 1+ INCHES WITH
LOCALLY UP TO 2" POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SO CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM AND THE POTENTIAL OF A
CONVECTIVE FINE LINE ALONG THE FRONT.  THIS SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE SO
RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY
SOONER OUT WEST.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE LLJ MOVES
THROUGH...ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION
WHICH MAY LIMIT GUSTS.  HOWEVER...STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AND TEMPS
RISING WELL INTO THE 50S WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE SAT AND SAT EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN. WIND THREAT WOULD BE ENHANCED IF A FINE LINE
DEVELOPS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF LIFTS NE OF THE REGION FOLLOWED BY RIDGING BUILDING
OFF THE EAST COAST. LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND CONTINUED MILD WITH TEMPS
IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 50S POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN ON MONDAY
AS LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
LOW PREDICTABILITY REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL WAVE AND
ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN DURING TUE.  ECMWF AND GGEM ARE WET ON TUE
WHILE GFS IS DRY. WE HAVE LOW CHC POPS FOR NOW WITH GFS AND ECMWF
ADVERTISING MAINLY DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER FOR NEXT WED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TODAY...
BAND OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE SNOW MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING HOURS THIS MORNING...BEGINNING AROUND 10Z IN THE CT
VALLEY...ARRIVING AROUND 13Z OR SO IN BOS. THIS SNOW WILL PROVIDE
A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND POSSIBLY EVEN OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS
THROUGH MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS...CIGS LOOK TO LIFT TO
LOW VFR UNTIL EVENING. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT ALL DAY.

TONIGHT...
MIXED CONDITIONS. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR GRADUALLY DIPPING TO IFR/LIFR
IN MIX OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. SOME LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN IN NW MASS/S NH. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
OUT OF THE S WITH SOME POSSIBLE LLWS BY EARLY MORNING HOURS.

KBOS TAF...GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF TRENDS...BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS LIKELY WITH AREAS OF
IFR POSSIBLE.  SOME LIGHT RAIN OR INTERIOR FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE
LATE FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AND WIDESPREAD IFR
ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MOVES THROUGH.  STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE LATE SAT
AND SAT EVENING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE E OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALLOWING S-SW FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WIND MAY REACH AROUND 20 KT
TODAY ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS BUT REMAIN BELOW THIS ELSEWHERE.
SEAS TOO ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT. THEREFORE...NO
HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND HIGHEST SEAS HOLD OUT UNTIL SATURDAY WHERE A GALE WATCH WILL
BE POSTED.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY WITH A PERIOD OF GALES POSSIBLE
LATE SAT AND SAT EVENING AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS ASSOCD WITH A LOW
LEVEL JET.  VSBYS REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND FOG SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

WESTERLY SCA WIND GUSTS LIKELY ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST SCA WINDS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.  HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL PERSIST OVER THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY

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