Coastal Flood Warning 2, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
915 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS...WITH RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IMPACTS INLAND.
MILDER AIR RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

915 AM UPDATE...

SUNNY SKIES AT MID MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS FROM
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE.  MID LEVEL
TEMPS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.  THEREFORE...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 DEGREES.  WINDS GUSTS WILL
GENERALLY BE 20 MPH OR LESS...SO IT WILL FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE THAN
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.  THESE HIGH TEMPS ARE STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST W/DEVELOPING OCEAN STORM
* POTENTIAL BLIZZARD WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS
* SHARP CUTOFF IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED IN THE BOSTON TO
  PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT WELL INLAND

MODEL PREFERENCES AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...00Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON EXPLOSIVE AND RAPID BOMBOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. THE DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE
EVOLUTION/TRACK AND STRUCTURE OF THIS POWERFUL OCEAN STORM. TWO
DISTINCT CAMPS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS HERE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
STRONGER AND PIVOT SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE THE
GFS/UKMET/RGEM AND GEFS ARE FARTHER EAST WITH LESS PIVOTING. THE
ECMWF HAS SHOWN THE BEST RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
FOR MANY DAYS NOW AND IS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
STRONGER/WESTWARD NAM AND THE FARTHER EAST GFS/UKMET/RGEM AND
GEFS. WILL BASE THIS FORECAST ON A MODEL BLEND TO INCORPORATE THE
LARGE MODEL SPREAD BUT GIVE MORE WEIGHT TO THE CONSISTENT ECMWF.

FORECAST ISSUES/UNCERTAINTY...ONE OF THE ISSUES WITH THIS POWERFUL
OCEAN STORM IS THAT IT/S DEVELOPING AWAY FROM THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND MORE IN THE WARM SECTOR. CONVECTION AND PROXIMITY TO THE GULF
STREAM LIKELY A PLAYER HERE. HOW MODELS SIMULATE OFFSHORE CONVECTION
AND ASSOCIATED EXPLOSIVE INTENSIFICATION WILL BE KEY ON THE
EVOLUTION AND STRUCTURE OF THIS STORM. ANY TIME A SHARP QPF GRADIENT
IS PLACED OVER THE REGION BUST POTENTIAL IS VERY LARGE AS A SMALL
SHIFT IN THE QPF SHIELD WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON SNOWFALL. FOR
THESE REASONS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT BELOW AVERAGE GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY SHORT TIME RANGE HERE. THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO UPGRADE ANY WATCHES TO WARNINGS. GIVEN POTENTIAL HEAVY
SNOW AND STRONG WINDS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SECOND PERIOD
/LATE TONIGHT/ AND BULK OF EVENT IN EARLY 3RD PERIOD /WED
MORNING/...FEEL THERE IS STILL SOME TIME TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS
BEFORE LOCKING THE FORECAST INTO ONE GIVEN MODEL SOLUTION.
FURTHERMORE LOOKING AT TWO DRY COMMUTES /THIS MORNING AND THIS
EVENING/ BEFORE ANY POTENTIAL WEATHER IMPACTS ARRIVE ACROSS THE
REGION.

STRONG WIND/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...THE WORSE CASE SCENARIO IS THE
00Z NAM WITH ITS SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING 60-70 MPH /APPROACHING
HURRICANE FORCE/ ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. CONVERSELY THE
WEAKER GFS YIELDING 50-60 MPH. A MODEL BLEND OFFERS NORTH WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 60 MPH WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS. THE BLIZZARD WATCH HIGHLIGHTS THIS WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH.
HOWEVER AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING 60
MPH SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE THE RISK OF WIND DAMAGE AND POWER
OUTAGES. FOR THIS REASON WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH TO
COMMUNICATE THE MODERATE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/POWER
OUTAGES...WHERE THE BLIZZARD WATCH WILL CONVEY THE LOW
VSBY/BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

SNOWFALL...GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
SNOWFALL IS BELOW AVERAGE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE TO INCORPORATE THIS
MODEL SPREAD DID A BLEND OF QPF WITH MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE
CONSISTENT 00Z ECMWF. THIS YIELDS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM OUR
PREVIOUS SNOW FORECAST WITH 2-4 INCHES IN THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR...4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AND 6-10 INCHES OVER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL YIELD
CONSIDERABLY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOWFALL. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
SYSTEM WILL PRECLUDE A LONGER DURATION SNOWSTORM.

ONSET OF SNOW...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION 03Z-09Z.

HEAVIEST SNOW...09Z-18Z THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. WED
MORNING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST MA
WITH LESS IMPACT NORTHWEST OF PROVIDENCE TO BOSTON. GIVEN THE COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECTING A RATHER FLUFFY/DRY SNOWFALL. THIS WILL
ENHANCE THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA
ESPECIALLY CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
* MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH COLD FRONT
* ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL...THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FOR THE LONG TERM.  THERE ARE OF COURSE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MESOSCALE AND THE MORE MINOR DETAILS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.  TEMPERATURES MODERATE GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BECOMING MORE SEASONABLE.  LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
QUEBEC FRIDAY PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
RESULTING IN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET IN BETWEEN FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS.

THURSDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION.  QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS AND
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE.  WHILE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC...PULLING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.  THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT.  THE
GFS IS A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF.  THIS WILL AFFECT HOW
QUICKLY SHOWERS COME TO AN END.  COLDER TEMPERATURES HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY...SO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR TO JUST
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.  MOST OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE RAIN
SHOWERS THOUGH A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF MIXED PRECIP ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES BOTH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY.  QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE WITH STILL LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TRACK OF POWERFUL OCEAN STORM LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED. THIS WILL IMPACT WIND AND SNOW FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF
THE 00Z NAM/MET AND 12Z ECMWF GUID FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

TODAY...TRANQUIL WITH DRY CONDITIONS/VFR AND LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START BUT THEN LOWERING TO MVFR WITH IFR LIKELY
SOUTHEAST MA TOWARD DAYBREAK. SNOW OVERSPREADS RI AND EASTERN MA
03Z-06Z AND MAY BECOME HEAVY 09Z-12Z PENDING EXACT TRACK OF OCEAN
LOW. VERY STRONG N-NE WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA
TOWARD 12Z WED.

WEDNESDAY...IFR LIKELY ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA IN SNOW...POSSIBLY
HEAVY. VERY STRONG N WINDS BECOME NW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HEAVIEST SNOW AND STRONGEST WIND OVER SOUTHEAST MA WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THRU 03Z WED...THEN
CONFIDENCE LOWERS INTO WED.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS MOVE IN AT 2000-
3000 FEET WITH SPEEDS OF 50-60 KNOTS. THIS COULD MEAN A PERIOD OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

*** DANGEROUS OCEAN STORM TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS WITH
  NEAR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ***

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE AREA.

TONIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. NNE WINDS
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BETWEEN 2 AM AND 8 AM WITH STORM FORCE WINDS
/GREATER THAN 47 KT/ LIKELY BY SUNRISE SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET.
SEAS INCREASE RAPIDLY AS WELL. VSBY LESS THAN 1 MILE SOUTH AND EAST
WATERS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.

WEDNESDAY...NNE STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOME NNW LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. LOW RISK OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
WATERS EAST OF NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD! DANGEROUS SEAS OF 20-30 KT IN
THE OCEAN WATERS OF EASTERN MA. VSBY NEAR ZERO IN HEAVY SNOW EASTERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEAS DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND...THEN INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO QUEBEC.  STRONG NORTHWESTERLY GALES DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY
AND SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT AND AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FAIRLY STRONG POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
PORTIONS OF THE CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET SHORELINES. MORE
SPECIFICALLY...A 2 TO 2.5 POSSIBLE STORM SURGE AROUND THE TIME OF
THE WED MORNING HIGH TIDE COULD PRODUCE MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE NORTH FACING CAPE COD BAY SHORELINE OF CAPE
COD...THE CHATHAM AREA OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET HARBOR.
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE OCEAN SIDE OF CAPE
COD AND THE EAST SIDE OF NANTUCKET WITH WAVES OF 20 TO 25 FEET
ANTICIPATED JUST EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.

THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE PLYMOUTH
COUNTY COASTLINE BUT ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY OF REACHING A MODERATE
IMPACT THERE.  NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH INTO THIS REGION...BUT A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED. STILL A 3RD PERIOD EVENT SO THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR MAZ017>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ022-024.
     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MAZ022>024.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR MAZ022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR RIZ007.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>234-251-256.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-254-
     255.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF

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