Coastal Flood Statement 1, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

636 
WHUS41 KBOX 220734
CFWBOX

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
234 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014

...SPOTTY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION POSSIBLE SOME NORTH
AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORELINES...

.STRONG NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS AND A 1.5 TO 2 FOOT STORM SURGE
WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF SPLASHOVER AND VERY MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF THE THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE.

MAZ019-022-024-221000-
/O.CON.KBOX.CF.S.0001.000000T0000Z-140122T1000Z/
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-NANTUCKET MA-
234 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014

...POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE...

* LOCATION...MASSACHUSETTS VULNERABLE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING 
  SHORELINES SOUTH OF BOSTON INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY...NORTH 
  SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.

* COASTAL FLOODING...POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR.

* TIMING...AROUND THE TIME OF THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE. HIGH 
  TIDE OCCURS 3 TO 4 AM ALONG MOST OF EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS.

* IMPACTS...A FEW VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS MAY HAVE TO BE BRIEFLY 
  CLOSED WITHIN AN HOUR OF THE HIGH TIDE. MINOR EROSION IS 
  POSSIBLE ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY COAST...NORTH SIDE OF CAPE 
  COD...ALONG THE OCEAN SIDE OF THE OUTER CAPE...AND THE EAST 
  SIDE OF NANTUCKET.

&&

ALL TIDE HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.
TIME OF HIGH TOTAL TIDES ARE APPROXIMATE TO THE NEAREST HOUR.

SCITUATE

   TOTAL                ASTRO
    TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
    /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
  -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
     7.7    21/04 PM     7.7      0.0      2-3       NONE
    10.9    22/03 AM     8.9      2.0      6-8      MINOR
     9.8    22/03 PM     8.6      1.2      7-9       NONE
     8.9    23/04 AM     8.9      0.0       5        NONE
     8.4    23/04 PM     8.4      0.0       3        NONE
     9.0    24/05 AM     9.0      0.0       2        NONE

SANDWICH HARBOR

   TOTAL                ASTRO
    TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
    /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
  -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
     7.4    21/04 PM     7.3      0.1      2-3       NONE
    10.7    22/03 AM     8.5      2.2      5-7       NONE
     9.6    22/03 PM     8.3      1.3      5-7       NONE
     8.6    23/04 AM     8.5      0.1      3-4       NONE
     8.1    23/04 PM     8.1      0.0       2        NONE
     8.6    24/04 AM     8.6      0.0       2        NONE

PROVINCETOWN HARBOR

   TOTAL                ASTRO
    TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
    /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
  -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
     8.1    21/04 PM     8.1      0.0      2-3       NONE
    10.7    22/03 AM     9.3      1.4      5-7       NONE
    10.2    22/03 PM     8.9      1.3      6-7       NONE
     9.4    23/04 AM     9.4      0.0      3-4       NONE
     8.9    23/04 PM     8.9      0.0      2-3       NONE
     9.5    24/05 AM     9.5      0.0       3        NONE

CHATHAM - EAST COAST

   TOTAL                ASTRO
    TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
    /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
  -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
     4.8    21/04 PM     4.8      0.0      4-5       NONE
     7.4    22/03 AM     4.9      2.5      8-10      NONE
     6.2    22/04 PM     4.9      1.3      8-10      NONE
     5.1    23/04 AM     5.1      0.0      5-6       NONE
     4.7    23/05 PM     4.7      0.0      3-4       NONE
     5.2    24/05 AM     5.2      0.0       3        NONE

CHATHAM - SOUTH COAST

   TOTAL                ASTRO
    TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
    /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
  -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
     3.6    21/04 PM     3.6      0.0      2-3       NONE
     5.2    22/04 AM     3.7      1.5       5        NONE
     4.9    22/04 PM     3.6      1.3      3-4       NONE
     3.8    23/04 AM     3.8      0.0      2-3       NONE
     3.5    23/05 PM     3.5      0.0       2        NONE
     4.0    24/05 AM     4.0      0.0       2        NONE

BUZZARDS BAY - WOODS HOLE

   TOTAL                ASTRO
    TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
    /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
  -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
     2.6    22/12 AM     1.6      1.0      2-3       NONE
     2.8    22/12 PM     1.5      1.3      2-3       NONE
     2.0    23/01 AM     1.6      0.4       1        NONE
     1.4    23/01 PM     1.4      0.0       1        NONE
     1.7    24/02 AM     1.7      0.0       2        NONE
     1.4    24/02 PM     1.4      0.0       2        NONE

WINGS NECK

   TOTAL                ASTRO
    TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
    /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
  -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
     0.8    21/07 PM     0.7      0.1       1        NONE
     4.3    22/12 AM     3.4      0.9      1-2       NONE
     4.5    22/01 PM     3.3      1.2      1-2       NONE
     3.9    23/01 AM     3.5      0.4       1        NONE
     3.1    23/01 PM     3.1      0.0       1        NONE
     3.6    24/02 AM     3.6      0.0       1        NONE
     3.1    24/02 PM     3.1      0.0       1        NONE

NANTUCKET HARBOR

   TOTAL                ASTRO
    TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
    /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
  -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
     3.1    21/04 PM     3.0      0.1       3        NONE
     5.1    22/04 AM     3.0      2.1      5-6      MINOR
     4.2    22/04 PM     2.8      1.4      3-5       NONE
     3.2    23/05 AM     3.2      0.0      2-3       NONE
     2.7    23/05 PM     2.7      0.0      2-3       NONE
     3.3    24/06 AM     3.3      0.0       3        NONE

NANTUCKET EAST COAST - EROSION IMPACTS

   TOTAL                ASTRO
    TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
    /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
  -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
     3.2    21/04 PM     3.1      0.1      4-5       NONE
     5.8    22/04 AM     3.3      2.5      8-10     MINOR
     4.6    22/04 PM     3.1      1.5      7-9       NONE
     3.3    23/04 AM     3.3      0.0       5        NONE
     3.0    23/05 PM     3.0      0.0       4        NONE
     3.5    24/05 AM     3.5      0.0       4        NONE

NANTUCKET - MADAKET AREA EROSION IMPACTS

   TOTAL                ASTRO
    TIDE    DAY/TIME     TIDE    SURGE    WAVES      FLOOD
    /FT/                 /FT/     /FT/     /FT/    CATEGORY
  -------  ----------  -------  -------  -------  ----------
     2.7    21/04 PM     2.7      0.0       4        NONE
     4.2    22/04 AM     2.8      1.4       6        NONE
     4.0    22/04 PM     2.6      1.4      4-5       NONE
     2.9    23/05 AM     2.9      0.0      3-4       NONE
     2.5    23/05 PM     2.5      0.0      3-4       NONE
     3.0    24/05 AM     3.0      0.0       4        NONE

$$


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558 
WHUS41 KBOX 221003
CFWBOX

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
503 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014

MAZ019-022-024-221115-
/O.EXP.KBOX.CF.S.0001.000000T0000Z-140122T1000Z/
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-NANTUCKET MA-
503 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014

...COASTAL FLOOD THREAT STARTING TO DIMINISH...

* LOCATION...MASSACHUSETTS VULNERABLE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
  SHORELINES SOUTH OF BOSTON INCLUDING PLYMOUTH COUNTY...NORTH
  SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET.

* IMPACT...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE PEAKED THIS MORNING. WITH A 1
  TO 2 FOOT SURGE...MINOR EROSION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE PLYMOUTH
  COUNTY COAST...THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD...ALONG THE OCEAN SIDE
  OF THE OUTER CAPE...AND THE EAST SIDE OF NANTUCKET. WATER LEVELS
  WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS MORNING AS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
  DIMINISHES.

&&


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1058 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND
ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. DELIVERING
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGERING
ACROSS THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY WEATHER
IS LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW IS SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH. WHILE SNOW REMAINS LIGHT AT THE ONSET...VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN QUICKLY DETERIORATING. VISIBILITY AT WHITE PLAINS NY WAS
DOWN TO ONE MILE LAST HOUR AND SNOW HAD ONLY STARTED THE PREVIOUS
HOUR. EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...RHODE
ISLAND...AND SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS NO LATER THAN NOON. THIS IS A
COUPLE OF HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...SO HAVE UPDATED
THE POPS TO REFLECT THIS.

10 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPGRADED HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING AND CHESHIRE COUNTY TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE SNOWFALL TOTALS...INCREASING THEM A BIT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHILE THE RANGES ON THE WEBSITE
HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO THE NEXT RANGE...SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE ONLY
BEEN INCREASED 1-2 INCHES. FURTHER UPDATES MAINLY TO POPS WILL BE
COMING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...THEY LOOK REASONABLE FOR
THE MOMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

* SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR THIS EVENING/S COMMUTE *

A DRY...MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL START TO THE DAY TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT STALLS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO
JUST SE OF THE BENCHMARK. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MID DAY AS THE LAST REMNANTS OF HIGH PRES GIVES WAY TO
STRENGTHENING LOW PRES MOVING ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING FROM THE OH VALLEY E. THIS LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE
40/70 BENCHMARK BY 00Z THIS EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SLIGHT BANDING SIGNAL WITH INCREASING LOW AND MID LVL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND S OF
THE MASS PIKE. BANDING SETUP NOT AS ROBUST AS WHAT IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE
20S...RATIOS ARE LIKELY TO BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL...ON THE ORDER OF
15 TO 1. THEREFORE...SOME SPOTS MAY APPROACH THE 1-2 INCH MARK BY
THE TIME 00Z ARRIVES. THE MAIN ISSUE HERE WILL BE THE EVENING
COMMUTE...AS COLD SFC TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE SNOW STICKING
PRETTY MUCH RIGHT OUT OF THE GATE. THEREFORE...UNTREATED ROADWAYS
MAY BECOME SLIPPERY AND BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE LIKELY.
NRN MA /ESPECIALLY N OF ROUTE 2/ AND SRN NH SNOWFALL MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL THE BULK OF THE COMMUTE IS OVER THANKS ESPECIALLY FOR DRIER
AIRMASS TO OVERCOME INITIALLY. WINDS BEGIN LIGHT...BUT MAY
APPROACH 20 MPH IN ERN MA AND RI BY 00Z AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
***WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT***

* BLIZZARD WARNINGS ISSUED FOR CAPE/ISLANDS AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH.
* WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR CT/RI AND MUCH OF MA.

LOW PRES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPING WELL BELOW 1000 HPA BY
AROUND 12Z WED. THIS SUGGESTS STRONG PRES FALLS RAPIDLY JUST SE OF
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AS THE LOW PRES MAKES ITS PASS. GIVEN
THIS...EXPECT DECENT DYNAMICS FOR BOTH SNOW BANDING AND STRONG
WINDS TO EFFECT THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO
THE MORNING HOURS WED. ALSO...THIS STRENGTHENING LOW CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF BANDED PRECIP SOMEWHERE IN THE SRN CT-RI SE
MASS CORRIDOR AS IT PASSES AND DECENT F-GEN SETS UP. H85 LOW DOES
BECOME CUTOFF DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS WELL. FOR A BRIEF
DISCUSSION OF ALL THE HAZARDS SEE BELOW...

QPF/SNOWFALL...WITH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT
ON THE GENERAL TRACK AND QPF OUTPUT OF THIS STORM...LEANED WITH A
GENERAL BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS AND MEAN SREF BLEND FOR THE QPF. THIS
LEAD TO A TOTAL QPF RANGE OF A QUARTER INCH IN NW MASS AND SW NH
TO UP TO 0.75+ INCHES ALONG THE CAPE/ISLANDS...WHERE BANDED PRECIP
IS MOST LIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE KEY FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE RATIOS.
USED A 16 TO 1 RATIO FOR TEMPERATURES AT 22F OR HIGHER WITH AN 18
TO 1 RATIO FOR TEMPS BELOW. HIGH FLUFF FACTOR GIVEN THE COLD DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND THE FACT THAT LIFT FROM THE F-GEN AND
DEFORMATION AXES LISTED ABOVE IS WELL WITHIN THE -12C TO -18C SNOW
GROWTH REGIME. USING THIS...HAVE SNOW TOTALS RANGING FROM ABOUT 4+
INCHES THROUGH EXTREME NW MA TO 10-12 INCHES ALONG THE
CAPE/ISLANDS. THEREFORE...HAVE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL OF
CT/RI AND MUCH OF MA...WITH ADVISORIES IN THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES AND ALL OF FRANKLIN COUNTY MA AWAY FROM THE BEST LIFT
POTENTIAL. A BLIZZARD WARNING IS OUT FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTIES BUT THIS IS TO ACCOUNT FOR STRONGER
WINDS AND REDUCED VSBYS...SEE WINDS BELOW FOR MORE DISCUSSION ON
THIS. WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SRN NH AT THIS TIME
GIVEN THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR 2ND PERIOD AND
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE QPF CUTOFF WILL RESIDE.

WINDS...
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS RAPID PRES FALLS OFFSHORE INDUCE STRONG
ISALLOBARIC FLOW. AT THIS TIME...A PERIOD OF 40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE ON CAPE/ISLANDS. GIVEN THIS...AND THE LIGHT FLUFFY
SNOW...FEEL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL BE ISSUING A BLIZZARD WARNING
WHERE CURRENT BLIZZARD WATCHES STAND WITH THIS UPDATE. 30-40 MPH
WIND GUSTS FOR RI AND ERN MA ARE LIKELY AS WELL...BUT GIVEN
SNOWFALL RATES MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH...NOT AS CONFIDENT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME...BUT WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL
COVER THE STRONG WIND THREAT.

COLD TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE OUTSIDE OF AND LOW TEENS WITHIN AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NORTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND AS MENTIONED
ABOVE UP TO 50 MPH ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL RESULT IN FRIGID
WIND CHILLS. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS
FOR MOST OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING. WIND
CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO -15F TO -20F ACROSS PORTIONS
OF INTERIOR MA/CT AND SRN NH. THEREFORE...WILL BE ISSUING WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
GIVEN THAT HIGH TIDES DURING THE EARLY MORNING WED HIGH TIDE
CYCLE WILL BE GENERALLY ON THE LOW END /BOSTON JUST UNDER 9.5
FEET/ WHICH IS THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS/WAVES...EXPECT THAT
THE RISK FOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE GENERALLY LOW THIS IS HELPED
BY THE FACT THAT WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE NORTH
RATHER THAN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY FOR NORTH FACING BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
* LINGERING OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
* WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WIND
  CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES
* ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY APPROACH OUR REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE/CONFIDENCE....
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AN ARCTIC BLAST WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON A POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IN IS GOOD AGREEMENT. TRENDED THIS FORECAST TOWARD THE
CONSENSUS OF THE 21/00Z GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY...
STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 12Z WEDNESDAY
AND BEGIN TO HEAD TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ADDITIONAL
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST AND
ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CAPE VALUES COULD
REACH BETWEEN 200-300 J/KG ACROSS THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS WITH A
GOOD NORTHERLY FETCH SLOWLY SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST. LAPSE
RATES ARE 8-6 C/KM AND WITH MOISTURE STILL IN THE SNOW GROWTH
REGION...ONE CAN EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY.

21/03Z SREF KEEPS SNOW FALLING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ASSUMING A NEGATIVE TILT...WE STILL FAVOR A SLIGHTLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE OUT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WINDS. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...A STRONG 925 MB JET OF 40-50 KTS
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS. BECAUSE OF THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES BELIEVE WE WILL TAP INTO THESE HIGHER WINDS AND WILL
SEE GUSTS ABOVE 35 KT FROM PLYMOUTH TO THE VINEYARD AND POINTS
EAST...AT LEAST THAT IS WHERE WE HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE. IN FACT
40 TO 45 KT ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY AS
THE SNOW WILL BE POWDERY. WE EXPECT THESE GUSTY WINDS TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

FINALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WEDNESDAY.
IF WINDS DIE DOWN BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BELOW GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE
FRESH SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO
BE CONSIDERED AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY....REINFORCING ARCTIC AIR WILL STICK AROUND
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. BECAUSE OF HOW STRONG THE COLD AIR
WILL BE ALOFT AND MOVING OVER THE SOMEWHAT WARMER
WATERS...EXPECTING A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE OF 15C OR MORE FROM
THE SURFACE TO 850MB. THIS INDICATES THAT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN A WESTERLY
FLOW. THIS SHOULD LAST WELL INTO FRIDAY.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...STILL SOME SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
WITH A POTENTIAL SYSTEM. THE CONSENSUS TIMING BRINGS A LOW
PRESSURE INTO EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
SLIGHTLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
COOL DOWN IS IN STORE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS TODAY...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING IN TAFS.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH BKN-SCT
MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE W TO THE NNE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH WINDS MAINLY HOLDING AROUND 10 KT UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON.

BEGINNING 18Z-21Z...LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD ESPECIALLY CT/RI
AND MASS S OF THE MASS PIKE WITH MIXED MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING ON RUNWAYS. NNE WINDS
WILL ALSO BE PICKING UP WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN A CORRIDOR FROM
CT/RI/SE MASS. 1-2 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY
ACCUMS ON AREA RUNWAYS IN THESE LOCATIONS AS WELL. LIGHTER
SNOWFALL IN CENTRAL/WRN MA AND SW NH. MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE WITH WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 20-30 KT FOR CT/INTO
CENTRAL MA...25-35 KT IN ERN MA AND NRN RI...AND 30-40 KT IN SE
MASS AND SRN RI.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN TAF TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN TAF TIMING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. IFR STILL ACROSS THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE DAY FROM OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY
BE REDUCED FROM BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WILL
PASSING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FROM OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE WIDELY SCT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST DROPPING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR. IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT...

TODAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER AS REMNANT SWELL
SUBSIDES AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE N-NE WITH TIME. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE OVERNIGHT...AND GALE WARNINGS ARE ALREADY OUT...BUT
WATCH FOR SOME SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TODAY TODAY.

TONIGHT...
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS WITH EVEN AN ISOLATED GUST TO AROUND
STORM FORCE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRES PASSES JUST S OF THE WATERS. THESE WINDS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY OF A
MILE OR LESS. ALSO...FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY AS STRONG WINDS
COMBINE WITH A VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AT
LEAST MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE ALONG THE ERN WATERS WHERE
TEMPS WILL BE COLDEST...SO WILL HAVE A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
THERE. HOWEVER LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL STRENGTHEN
CREATING A DANGEROUS STORM FOR MARINERS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST
UP TO 45 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 20 FT. GALE WARNING HAVE
BEEN POSTED...LOW PROBABILITY FOR STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO LIKELY
ACROSS THE WATERS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIE DOWN ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED. EXPECTING AREAS OF MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY AND OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ003-004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002-
     003-008-009.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>005-008>012-026.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ004>007-
     010>018-020-026.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MAZ019-021>024.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ011.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ011-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-250-251.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
923 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

MAZ002-003-008-009-NHZ011-221430-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-CHESHIRE NH-
923 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
   WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
   WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

STRONG ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DROPPING
WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -15 TO -20 DEGREES AT TIMES WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CTZ002-MAZ006-007-013>018-020-NHZ012-RIZ001>008-221430-
HARTFORD CT-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-
WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
923 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

STRONG ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DROPPING
WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -15 TO -20 DEGREES AT TIMES WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CTZ003-004-MAZ004-005-010>012-026-NHZ015-221430-
TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
923 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.
   WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.
   WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

STRONG ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DROPPING
WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -15 TO -20 DEGREES AT TIMES WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MAZ019-021>024-221430-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-
NANTUCKET MA-
923 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   BLIZZARD WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   BLIZZARD WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ231>237-254>256-221430-
CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
923 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL
OCCUR AT TIMES DURING THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK OVER THE
WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230-250-251-221430-
BOSTON HARBOR-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
923 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY.
   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY.
   GALE WARNING.

THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL
OCCUR AT TIMES DURING THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK OVER THE
WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RLG

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