Special Weather Statement, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
308 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION COMING OFF OF THE FOOTHILLS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
THE STORMS MOVING ON THEIR EASTERLY TRACK. BRIEF RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. DEEPER MOISTURE IS
PRESENT OUT ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER...SO WHEN STORMS GET OUT TO
THAT PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEY MAY STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT.

FOR TOMORROW...ADDITIONAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOVING OVER THE STATE...FUELING ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER...ADDING A LITTLE MORE PUNCH TO THE CONVECTION.
CONTINUING MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS MOVING
FAST ENOUGH TO AVOID ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY IN THE MORNING...BEFORE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND BEGINS MARCHING EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY PUSHING A FRONT SOUTH
INTO COLORADO. TIMING OF THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE EFFECTS DIFFER
BETWEEN MODELS...BUT THEY ALL SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON A PIECE OF
ENERGY TO PUSH OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY EVENING WHICH
WOULD KEEP CONVECTION GOING THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING...THEN
THE FRONT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW TO FOLLOW TO PUSH IN SUNDAY MORNING.
LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOME
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS OUT
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES DOWN...SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE COULD BE PUSHED IN AND AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS FOR A CHANCE
OF STRATUS IN THE MORNING. WITH CONTINUING UPSLOPE EXPECTED...LOOK
FOR STORMS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN A BIT EARLIER ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MAINLY FOCUS THERE AND AND THE
WESTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY. THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY BE TO
STABLE FOR MANY SHOWERS TO OCCUR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
STATE FOR WARMER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS...THOUGH STILL
EXPECT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS...MAINLY AFFECTING
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  A CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEAST TO PUSH THE RIDGE DOWN TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND HELP BRING UP SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...INCREASING
OUR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRIMARILY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE SO
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN APPROACH AND DEPARTURE GATES SHOULD
BE IMPACTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS
MAY STILL MOVE ACROSS THE DENVER METRO AREA AND AIRPORT DURING
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH GENTLE DOWNSLOPE WINDS KEEPING ANY STRATUS CLOUDS
WELL TO THE EAST OF THE DENVER AIRPORTS. ON SATURDAY...MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR...UNTIL DEVELOPING SHOWERS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS MOVE OVER THE DENVER IN THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5000FT AGL...EVEN AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
OVERHEAD.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...DANKERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1051 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

COZ030>051-091700-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-
WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/
GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE
9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY-
1051 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
WITH MOST OF THE STORMS...THOUGH A FEW STRONGER STORMS OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL. THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR A
BETTER CHANCE AREA WIDE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN A COOL FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OVER THE AREA CREATING UPSLOPE FLOW. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD...THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL
USHER IN MORE MONSOONAL MOISTURE FOR AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
423 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

COZ048-082300-
LOGAN COUNTY CO-
423 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LOGAN COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM MDT...

AT 423 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTH OF WESTPLAINS...OR 18 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KIMBALL...MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN LOGAN
COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4091 10355 4100 10354 4100 10331 4091 10329
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 280DEG 8KT 4099 10349

RPK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
438 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

COZ044-045-082300-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES CO-MORGAN COUNTY CO-
438 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN
MORGAN AND EASTERN ADAMS COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

AT 437 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
TWELVE-MILE CORNER...OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF FORT MORGAN...MOVING EAST
AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TWELVE-MILE CORNER...GARY AND ADENA SCHOOL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 10356 4000 10370 3994 10371 3995 10388
      4014 10389 4014 10356
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 271DEG 10KT 4003 10377

RPK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
453 PM MDT FRI AUG 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     HAIL             1 SW ST PETERSBURG      40.55N 102.83W
08/07/2014  M1.75 INCH       LOGAN              CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER TO GOLF BALL HAIL COMPLETELY COVERED THE GROUND

&&

JK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
549 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

COZ049-090015-
WASHINGTON COUNTY CO-
549 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
UNTIL 615 PM MDT...

AT 548 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTH OF BURDETT...OR 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF AKRON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LONE STAR AND BURDETT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4018 10305 4042 10299 4042 10279 4018 10281
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 212DEG 13KT 4026 10296

RPK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
616 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

COZ048-090045-
LOGAN COUNTY CO-
616 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTY UNTIL
645 PM MDT...

AT 615 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES SOUTH OF ST PETERSBURG...OR 23 MILES NORTH OF YUMA...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.  ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
REIRADON HILL AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH AS WELL.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ST PETERSBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4044 10268 4044 10323 4064 10319 4064 10266
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 257DEG 15KT 4046 10281

RPK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
700 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

COZ051-090130-
PHILLIPS COUNTY CO-
700 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PHILLIPS COUNTY UNTIL 730
PM MDT...

AT 659 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PAOLI...OR 11 MILES WEST OF HOLYOKE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOLYOKE...PAOLI...HIGHLAND CENTER AND FAIRFIELD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4045 10260 4070 10258 4070 10226 4045 10226
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 266DEG 13KT 4059 10252

RPK