Special Weather Statement, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
629 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAS PUSHED SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE DENVER METRO AREA. COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL
LIKELY END THE THREAT FOR STORMS THIS EVENING FROM DENVER AND
NORTH. MAY STILL SEE A BRIEF SHOWER IN THE NEXT HOUR RIGHT BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY. WILL STILL SEE STORMS JUST SOUTH OF DENVER...AHEAD
OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA RIGHT NOW...
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS FAIRLY LIMITED. THE RADAR ALSO SHOWS PLENTY
OF BOUNDARIES OVER THE PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
RIGHT AROUND 1.00 INCH OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS. THE ACARS
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CIN IS GONE OVER THE PLAINS NOW. MODELS SHOW
THE UPPER RIDGE TO FLATTEN DOWN A BIT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE JET LEVEL
FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE WESTERLY AT 30-50 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH HELPS BRING A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT INTO THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING. IT
IS NOT VERY SIGNIFICANT HOWEVER. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS
BENIGN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE
DRAINAGE TONIGHT...THEN NORTH TO EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. FOR MOISTURE
...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PLUME LOOKS TO STAY OVER THE CWA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ACCORDING TO THE SATELLITE PICTURES. AGAIN...
THE MODELS HAVE 0.70 TO 1.30 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGGED
FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S F TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THE CAPE PROGS SHOW IT GOING AWAY PRETTY QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON....THERE IS 300-1200 J/KG FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE LIMITED MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVER THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH ALMOST NOTHING OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE COVERAGE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS A BIT MORE THAN THIS
EVENING'S...BUT NOTHING GREAT. SO FOR POPS...WITH THE INITIAL
BATCH MOVING OFF THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE PLAINS AND NOT MUCH
UPSTREAM...WILL GO WITH LIMITED CHANCES THIS EVENING. NOTHING
AFTER LATE EVENING UNTIL ABOUT NOON FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY 20-30%S AGAIN. TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE WEAK
FRONT ON FRIDAY SEEMS TO COOL OFF MAYBE 1-2 C DOWN FROM THIS
AFTERNOON'S READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

SOME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...BEFORE ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT.
BRIEF MODERATE RAIN AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STORMS. ON SATURDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS
COLORADO WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH DAKOTA. MODELS SHOW COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS PLAINS LATE MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING. MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME STILL IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. ACROSS
PLAINS...SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAP WHICH COULD LIMIT THE
CHANCE FOR STORMS. FOR MONDAY... THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHWEST
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
SURFACE HIGH PUSHES INTO CENTRAL PLAINS WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. MODELS SHOW SOME
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK MID LEVEL QG ASCENT SHOULD
GENERATE A DECENT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
ACROSS PLAINS...LOW LEVEL COOLING CONTINUES WHICH SHOULD KEEP CAP
IN PLACE LIMITING THE STORM POTENTIAL. BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MID
LEVEL ASCENT TO OFFSET THIS CAP...SO WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS. HIGHS
ACROSS PLAINS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S. ON MONDAY...THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY.
MODELS BEGIN TO BUILD THETA-E RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA...WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS. MAY SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS THE
PLAINS...BUT PERSISTENT CAP MAY AGAIN LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. STORMS
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE PLAINS AND NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.

FOR THE LATER DAYS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TUESDAY AS BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. DECENT MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOST LOCATIONS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE
STORMS AS WELL. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE. STILL
DECENT MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

THREAT FOR STORMS HAS LIKELY ENDED FOR THE DENVER AREA. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BROUGHT COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR. STORMS
WILL CONTINUE JUST SOUTH OF DENVER AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...D-L
AVIATION...MEIER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1103 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

COZ030>051-251715-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-
WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/
GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE
9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY-
1103 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS FROM NOON TO 2 PM. THEY SHOULD SPREAD OVER
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH WITH THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS THE BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN HOT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A
GRADUAL COOL DOWN OCCURS SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ONLY ISOLATED
STORMS ON THE PLAINS. THE AIRMASS WILL STABILIZE SOMEWHAT ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY LESS STORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED. MOST OF THE STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
416 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

COZ042-044-048-049-242300-
LOGAN COUNTY CO-WASHINGTON COUNTY CO-MORGAN COUNTY CO-
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY CO-
416 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WELD...NORTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON...NORTHEASTERN MORGAN AND SOUTHWESTERN LOGAN COUNTIES
UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

AT 411 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER NORTHEAST MORGAN COUNTY AND CENTERED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WILLARD...OR 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STERLING. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STERLING...MERINO...ATWOOD...PREWITT RESERVOIR...ANTELOPE SPRINGS AND
WILLARD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

INTENSE RAINFALL FROM THIS STORM MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS SUCH AS FIELDS AND PASTURES ALONG THE BANKS OF THE SOUTH
PLATTE RIVERS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE OVER WATER COVERED ROADWAY
AS THEY MAY BE DAMAGED BY THE RAINFALL RUNOFF.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4042 10379 4060 10380 4063 10318 4034 10319
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 268DEG 13KT 4047 10352

BAKER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
452 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

COZ046-049-242330-
WASHINGTON COUNTY CO-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY CO-
452 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

AT 450 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST LINCOLN AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON
COUNTIES EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF COPE TO 3 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THURMAN TO 15 MILES NORTH OF ARRIBA TO 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF
GENOA. THIS LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ARRIBA...ARICKAREE SCHOOL...COPE AND THURMAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR SUDDEN STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS AND
MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3956 10315 3925 10315 3923 10318 3938 10358
      3994 10283 3986 10280 3957 10280
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 273DEG 17KT 3979 10288 3964 10319 3951 10327
3939 10341

BAKER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
513 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

COZ051-250000-
PHILLIPS COUNTY CO-
513 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PHILLIPS COUNTY
UNTIL 600 PM MDT...

AT 511 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HOLYOKE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOLYOKE...PLEASANT VALLEY AND AMHERST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR SUDDEN STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS AND
MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS
STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK
A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4044 10244 4062 10246 4071 10205 4044 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 270DEG 16KT 4055 10223

BAKER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
655 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

COZ036-040-041-250130-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET CO-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE  6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET CO-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE
COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY CO-
655 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN ARAPAHOE...NORTH CENTRAL
DOUGLAS...EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND SOUTHEASTERN DENVER COUNTIES
UNTIL 730 PM MDT...

AT 651 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A THUNDERSTORM
STRENGTHENING OVER ROXBOROUGH PARK...OR 18 MILES SOUTH OF
DENVER...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SOUTHWESTERN CENTENNIAL...HIGHLANDS
RANCH...NORTHWESTERN CASTLE ROCK...LONE TREE...ROXBOROUGH
PARK...LOUVIERS...BEVERLY HILLS... SURREY RIDGE AND SEDALIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR SUDDEN STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS AND
MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLY CAUSING MINOR STREET
FLOODING.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3937 10514 3955 10513 3955 10512 3952 10512
      3952 10510 3949 10513 3949 10509 3956 10506
      3957 10491 3946 10482 3934 10488
TIME...MOT...LOC 0051Z 270DEG 16KT 3946 10505

BAKER