Special Weather Statement, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
157 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF IT HAS BROUGHT
DRIER AIR TO EASTERN COLORADO. ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...THE AIRMASS
REMAINS MOIST WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. CAPES ARE UP TO 2000 J/KG ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE...BUT LESS THAN 500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. ALREADY
SEEING A GOOD NUMBER OF STORMS FORMING OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOVING
WEST. EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY EVENING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND FRONT RANGE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND AREAS NEAR BY.
THE DRIER AIR OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION AND WILL JUST
HAVE ISOLATED POPS. EVEN THOUGH SHEAR IS WEAK...WITH CAPES UP TO
2000 J/KG...COULD SEE A BRIEF SEVERE STORM WITH HAIL UP TO ONE INCH.
IF STORMS PERSIST OVER AN AREA...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY MID EVENING AS THE AIRMASS
STABILIZES. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW NEAR BY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY DRY.

AIRMASS WARMS TOMORROW AS THE LOW DIPS SOUTH. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
DECREASE...BUT ENOUGH WILL PREVAIL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS. COVERAGE WILL BE LESS AND THAN TODAY. THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LOWER TOO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014

COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING
03Z. HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

EAST WINDS WILL LIKELY TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
PUSH THROUGH FROM STORMS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. WINDS WILL THEN TURN
SOUTHERLY BY 06Z.

AIRMASS DRIES SOME TONIGHT...SO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS
TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. BECAUSE OF THE DRIER AIR...CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOWER ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014

RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE DUE TO SNOW MELT AND RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
OVER JACKSON...GRAND AND LARIMER COUNTIES WHERE MANY STREAMS ARE
BANKFULL. LOW LYING AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES IN
THE RIVERS WHERE HEAVY RAIN FALLS. BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 WHERE ONE INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL IN 30 TO
45 MINUTES.

AIRMASS DRIES TONIGHT AND MONDAY...LOWERING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING MONDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH DUE TO THE SNOW MELT AND RECENT RAINFALL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...MEIER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1053 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014

COZ030>051-261700-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-
WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/
GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE
9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY-
1053 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS
IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM
DENVER NORTH TO THE WYOMING BORDER COULD PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IF THEY OCCUR IN THE BURN SCARS OR OVER AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

OTHERWISE...A MAJORITY OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH.  MEANWHILE...AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL UP TO ONE INCH
IN DIAMETER.

SOME SNOW MAY OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET WITH A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ON MONDAY...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
AND A DRIER AIRMASS MOVE OVER COLORADO. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
AGAIN LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT BUT
RAINFALL REPORTS WILL BE APPRECIATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1238 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014

COZ036-039-251915-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY
CO-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE  6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET CO-
1238 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1237 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER GOLDEN...OR 13 MILES WEST OF DENVER...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SLOW MOVING STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHERN LAKEWOOD...GOLDEN AND WHITE RANCH OPEN SPACE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3971 10533 3984 10533 3974 10510
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 082DEG 6KT 3976 10521

BAKER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1250 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014

COZ036-041-251930-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET CO-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE  6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET CO-
1250 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY
UNTIL 130 PM MDT...

AT 1248 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR PALMER LAKE...OR 22 MILES NORTH OF COLORADO SPRINGS...MOVING
NORTH AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE DRAINAGE
DITCHES ALONG ROADWAYS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS TO FILL WITH WATER.
THE SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO COVER THE GROUND SEVERAL INCHES DEEP.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LARKSPUR AND PERRY PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3924 10504 3928 10494 3924 10485 3913 10484
      3913 10502
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 180DEG 9KT 3915 10493

BAKER

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