Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

653 
WWUS55 KBOU 030153
SVSBOU

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
753 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014

COC093-030202-
/O.EXP.KBOU.SV.W.0161.000000T0000Z-140703T0200Z/
PARK CO-
753 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL PARK COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 800 PM MDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3925 10577 3935 10585 3945 10568 3937 10555
      3925 10559
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 262DEG 11KT 3934 10574 

$$

BAKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
340 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014

PREVIOUS CHANGES STILL LOOKING GOOD WITH THE PLAINS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CAPPED AND ONLY ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT THE CLOUDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO BE SLOW TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS IT IS FAIRLY MOIST AT THAT LEVEL. AT THE
SURFACE THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH WARMING AND WIND TO PREVENT
STRATUS...THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF DEVELOPING SOME SHALLOW
LOWER STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE...AND IT WILL BE
STILL WARMER BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT. WE SHOULD BE CLOSER TO
GETTING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...BUT THE SITUATION MAY WIND UP
BEING SIMILAR WITH THE PLAINS BEING A LITTLE SHY OF THE HEAT
NEEDED FOR THERMALLY DRIVEN STORMS. MAYBE A BETTER CHANCE WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. CAPES WILL BE BELOW 1000 J/KG IN THE MOUNTAINS...MAYBE
UP TO 1500 J/KG ON THE PLAINS BUT WITH A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
ANY ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE ALONG BOUNDARIES SO IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK PRETTY
GOOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WITH CENTER
OF THE 5H HIGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH INTO
COLORADO...THOUGH CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN
THE MID LEVELS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP GENERATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...AND SHOULD END
AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH LACK OF ANY SUPPORT TO KEEP ANY STORMS GOING
OVERNIGHT. BRIEF MODERATE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE STORMS. WITH FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW ALOFT...STORMS COULD BE
SLOW MOVING AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
TO BE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH MAINLY 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. MODELS DO INDICATE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH...BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
AGAIN...STORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
FLOW ALOFT TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...SO SLOW MOVING STORMS STILL A
POSSIBILITY. HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MID 60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.

FOR THE LATER DAYS...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: RIDGE LOOKS TO
RETROGRATE ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF CANADA. THERE
WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BY WEDNESDAY...
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NORTHWEST. SURFACE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE TUESDAY WITH DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...WITH THE ECMWF DRIER. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR
AROUND AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014

VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF DENVER THIS EVENING...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. FOR THURSDAY A BIT MORE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE BUT STILL JUST A CHANCE OF VARIABLE WINDS AND NO OTHER
IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...D-L
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1103 AM MDT WED JUL 2 2014

COZ030>051-031715-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-
WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/
GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE
9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY-
1103 AM MDT WED JUL 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT ONE OF THESE STORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO
DENVER OR AREAS SOUTH OF DENVER LATE IN THE DAY. BRIEF RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE SHOWERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH WARM
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE STATE WILL CAUSE DAILY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THE MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND. LIGHT WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR SLOWER MOVING STORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN
SOME AREAS. A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH FROM CANADA
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING COOLER AIR TO NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

GIMMESTAD/LESZCYNSKI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
441 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014

COZ037-022315-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY CO-
441 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PARK COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM MDT...

AT 437 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES NORTH OF WAUGH MOUNTAIN...OR 51 MILES WEST OF COLORADO
SPRINGS...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GUFFEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR SUDDEN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS AND MOVE
TO A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO BE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND CAUSE MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AREAS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 10577 3882 10589 3890 10572 3880 10552
      3870 10552
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 082DEG 7KT 3875 10576

BAKER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
536 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014

COZ037-030015-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY CO-
536 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PARK COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM MDT...

AT 534 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES WEST OF ELEVENMILE CANYON RESERVOIR...OR 45 MILES WEST OF
COLORADO SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

RADAR IS INDICATING SOME CIRCULATION WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL PARK
COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3891 10576 3895 10564 3883 10554 3877 10568
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 334DEG 14KT 3886 10566

BAKER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
711 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014

COZ034-037-030200-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY CO-
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE
9000 FEET CO-
711 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2014

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 710 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
COMO...OR 53 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DENVER...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JEFFERSON...TARRYALL RESERVOIR...KENOSHA PASS AND COMO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS AND MOVE TO A
SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

LAT...LON 3933 10594 3944 10575 3937 10561 3921 10560
      3922 10588
TIME...MOT...LOC 0110Z 257DEG 18KT 3932 10583

BAKER