Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
332 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWLY LIFTING OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF WELD
COUNTY DOWN TO ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW
MOVING...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESS. SOME SHOWERS
ARE ALSO DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT WITH MUCH LESS
INTENSITY. CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT DISSIPATE AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE PLAINS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES ITS MARCH TO THE NORTHEAST. LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO POSE PROBLEMS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OUT OF THE STATE BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. MOST...IF NOT
ALL...OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE PLAINS SHOULD BE OVER BY THEN.

BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE STATE FROM A FLAT UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE WEATHER ACROSS COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY EVENING WITH DECREASING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES TO BE FAIRLY STEEP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY AND ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. A FEW STORMS
COULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS INDICATED BY SOME MID LEVEL QG ASCENT...WHICH MAY HELP IN
GENERATING SOME STORMS. THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE
MAINLY HIGH BASED...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN. OTHERWISE...AIRMASS LOOKING RATHER WARM AND FAIRLY
DRY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH MAINLY 70S ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY. UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO BECOMING A BIT MORE NORTHWEST.
MODELS ROTATE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS WYOMING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING
THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CFWA BY 12Z. NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT...BECOMING NORTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES INTO WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LOW LEVELS LOOK
FAIRLY DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY STRATUS DURING THE MORNING. SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS BY THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
MODERATE RAIN. COOLER AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH WILL
HELP KEEP THINGS FAIRLY STABLE...SO NO STORMS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO DROP BACK INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
OVER THE PLAINS...ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS MOST AREAS.
LOW LEVEL STILL LOOK FAIRY DRY...SO WETTING RAINS NOT EXPECTED.
AIRMASS TO BE EVEN COOLER ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A REINFORCING
WEAK SURGE WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES.

FOR THE LATER DAYS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THE ACROSS EASTERN
UTAH AND EASTERN ARIZONA. BY FRIDAY THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVING OVER COLORADO. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LEVEL
FLOW TO CONTINUE TO BRING MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
COLORADO. AIRMASS TO GRADUALLY WARM AND BECOME A BIT MORE
UNSTABLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING OFF THE
WEST COAST OF MEXICO SOMETIME THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD ADVECT NORTH INTO
COLORADO...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN. STILL ALOT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND WAY TOO EARLY TO
EVEN CONSIDER INCLUDING IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

INITIAL BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE DENVER AREA
AND KDEN WHICH HAS STABILIZED THE AIRMASS FOR THE TIME BEING. THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AT THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD
BE ONTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CUMULUS
FIELDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DO NOT REVEAL ANY ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF
INSTABILITY FOR NOW. OUTFLOW FROM THE STRONG CONVECTION ON THE
PLAINS MAY STILL FLOW BACK TO THE FOOTHILLS AND PRODUCE ONE MORE
ROUND OF SHOWERS...BUT IF THIS HAPPENS...THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD BE
FINISHED MOVING OVER DENVER AREA AIRPORTS BY 7 PM OR 8 PM. WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE STATE LATER THIS
EVENING...SKIES WILL BEGIN CLEARING AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
MORNING BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...D-L
AVIATION...DANKERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1110 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

COZ030>051-281715-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-
WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/
GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE
9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY-
1110 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CLOSER TO
THE FOOTHILLS AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...LESS MOISTURE IS PRESENT...SO
STORMS WILL PRODUCE MORE GUSTY WINDS THAN RAIN.

STORMS SHOULD END EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY HUG THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
118 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

COZ040-043-272015-
CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY CO-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE
COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY CO-
118 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WELD...EAST CENTRAL
DENVER AND NORTHWESTERN ADAMS COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM MDT...

AT 115 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR DACONO TO THORNTON...
AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN 30 MINUTES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EASTERN THORNTON...NORTHEASTERN COMMERCE CITY...BRIGHTON...
FIRESTONE...NORTHERN DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...FREDERICK...FORT
LUPTON...LOCHBUIE...DACONO...HUDSON AND BARR LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND
WILL PRODUCE STREET FLOODING.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.

LAT...LON 4014 10466 3989 10466 3989 10493 4011 10494
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 278DEG 10KT 4005 10490 3993 10489

COOPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
146 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             1 S FORT LUPTON         40.07N 104.81W
06/27/2014  M1.00 INCH       WELD               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
157 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     HAIL             N NUNN                  40.70N 104.78W
06/27/2014  M1.00 INCH       WELD               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0140 PM     HAIL             1 S FORT LUPTON         40.07N 104.81W
06/27/2014  M1.00 INCH       WELD               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
400 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

COZ044-049-272300-
WASHINGTON COUNTY CO-MORGAN COUNTY CO-
400 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

AT 357 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STORMS
EXTENDING FROM AROUND FORT MORGAN TO NEAR LAST CHANCE.  THE STORMS
WERE MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORT MORGAN...AKRON...BRUSH...LAST CHANCE...GARY...LINDON...
THURMAN...ANTON...WOODROW...ELBA...WOODLIN SCHOOL AND MIDWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS AND MOVE TO A
SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN DENVER.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3957 10311 3957 10370 4000 10370 4001 10375
      4030 10382 4033 10311
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 295DEG 21KT 4061 10414

COOPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
408 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0244 PM     HAIL             PIERCE                  40.63N 104.75W
06/27/2014  M1.00 INCH       WELD               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0228 PM     HEAVY RAIN       E NUNN                  40.70N 104.77W
06/27/2014  U4.00 INCH       WELD               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MINOR STREET FLOODING. WATER OVER THE CURBS.

0155 PM     HAIL             N NUNN                  40.70N 104.78W
06/27/2014  M1.00 INCH       WELD               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0140 PM     HAIL             1 S FORT LUPTON         40.07N 104.81W
06/27/2014  M1.00 INCH       WELD               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JK

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