Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
316 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014

SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE FRONT RANGE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY. STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND SHIFT EAST OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME
STRONGER...SOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE INTO MORE MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT FURTHER EAST ON THE PLAINS. OVER THE FRONT
RANGE...LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS NEAR DENVER INDICATE SURFACE BASED
CAPES AROUND 1000J/KG WITH STILL A BIT OF CIN TO OVERCOME. HOWEVER
CLOUDS FROM STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW HEATING AND OVERALL STORM
STRENGTH WILL BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

FOR MONDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THERE WILL BE A BIT
STRONGER AND DEEPER LOW LEVEL FLOW WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW IS
STRONGER. OVERALL...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS BETTER ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH BETTER SHEAR PROFILE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY. PW
VALUES ALSO APPROACH AN INCH SO ALSO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
MORE OF A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. MAIN CHANGE TO ZONES WILL BE TO
INCREASE POPS A BIT OVER THE FRONT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014

NOT MUCH TO SINK ONE'S TEETH INTO DURING THE PERIOD. WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP
SOME MOISTURE BANKED UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
CONDITIONS DRYING OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE THREAT OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION GOING MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH LESSER CHANCES THEREAFTER. INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP A LOW RISK OF SEVERE STORMS DURING THAT PERIOD AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD EXCEPT IN THE OUTER PERIODS WHEN WARMER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014

EXPECT MAINLY WEAK CONVECTION OVER TERMINALS AS STRONGER STORMS
REMAIN SOUTH THROUGH DOUGLAS COUNTY. THE TEMPO THUNDER MAY BE TOO
MUCH BUT WILL REEVALUATE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. COULD SEE A DENVER
CYCLONE SET UP ON MONDAY MORNING AND STILL A POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRATUS EARLY IN THE AM. BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER MOISTURE...UPSLOPE FLOW AND DENVER CYCLONE
IN PLACE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...ENTREKIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1101 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014

COZ030>051-231715-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-
WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/
GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE
9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY-
1101 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD OVER
THE PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND
STRETCHING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE. HEAVY
RAIN...LARGE HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER...AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE
EVENING...BUT A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL EXIST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO KEEP THE
THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM ACTIVITY MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL BE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SOME STORMS
MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. THERE
WILL BE A THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND OR JUST A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

FOR LATER IN THE WEEK...MOISTURE WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
...LOWERING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM SOME DURING THAT TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 2 PM OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
351 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     HAIL             CARR                    40.90N 104.87W
06/22/2014  M1.25 INCH       WELD               CO   STORM CHASER

            WALL CLOUD NEAR BY

&&

BAKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
406 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 PM     HAIL             2 SE NUNN               40.68N 104.75W
06/22/2014  M1.00 INCH       WELD               CO   PUBLIC

0341 PM     HAIL             CARR                    40.90N 104.87W
06/22/2014  M1.25 INCH       WELD               CO   STORM CHASER

            WALL CLOUD NEAR BY

&&

BAKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
428 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     HAIL             11 ENE PAWNEE BUTTES    40.87N 103.78W
06/22/2014  M1.75 INCH       WELD               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0343 PM     HAIL             2 SE NUNN               40.68N 104.75W
06/22/2014  M1.00 INCH       WELD               CO   PUBLIC

0341 PM     HAIL             CARR                    40.90N 104.87W
06/22/2014  M1.25 INCH       WELD               CO   STORM CHASER

            WALL CLOUD NEAR BY

&&

BAKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
436 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     HAIL             5 NNE NUNN              40.77N 104.75W
06/22/2014  M1.75 INCH       WELD               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0343 PM     HAIL             2 SE NUNN               40.68N 104.75W
06/22/2014  M1.00 INCH       WELD               CO   PUBLIC

0341 PM     HAIL             CARR                    40.90N 104.87W
06/22/2014  M1.25 INCH       WELD               CO   STORM CHASER

            WALL CLOUD NEAR BY

&&

BAKER