High Wind Watch 12, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
338 PM MDT MON APR 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT MON APR 28 2014

UPPER LOW STILL OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE PLAINS...STRONGEST FAR NORTHEAST CORNER WHERE SURFACE
GRADIENT IS THE TIGHTEST. GUSTS FROM 50 TO 55 MPH CURRENTLY ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST CORNER WITH A GUST TO 60 MPH AT AKRON AT 258 PM.
OTHERWISE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER
COLORADO. RADAR SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AT
THIS TIME WITH MOST OF ACTIVITY OVER LOGAN...WASHINGTON AND
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTIES. ACROSS MOUNTAINS...DECENT OROGAPHICS
KEEPING SNOW SHOWERS GOING WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF SUMMIT AND GRAND COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE
PARK AND GORE RANGES OF WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY. MODELS SHOW UPPER
LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS BY 06Z
WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NORTHERLY ACROSS COLORADO. SURFACE
GRADIENT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY DURING THE EVENING WITH AIRMASS
STABILIZING. SHOULD SEE WINDS DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL
KEEP HIGH WIND WARNING FOR FAR NORTHEAST CORNER GOING THOUGH 9PM.
STILL PERSISTENT WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHICS OVER
MOUNTAINS TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS MOUNTAINS WITH UP TO 3
INCHES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SOME DECREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS PLAINS BUT STILL SOME CHANCE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE. LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL. ON TUESDAY...STRONG NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO WITH UPPER LOW OVER IOWA. SURFACE
GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED
MIXING. SHOULD BE ANOTHER WINDY DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL WINDS
REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
PLAINS. WILL HOIST A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR ZONES 42..44..45..46>51
FROM 15Z TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. LATEST NAM GUIDANCE INDICATED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 42 KTS AT DEN AT 21Z WITH THE GFS GUIDANCE SHOWING 41
KTS. BASED ON THE MODEL SURFACE GRADIENT...OPT NOT TO INCLUDE
ZONES 43 OR 45 AT THIS POINT. CONTINUED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ALONG
WITH WEAK MID LEVEL QG ASCENT AND CONTINUED MOUNTAIN OROGRAPHICS
ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY. ADDITIONAL
MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATION TO BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT MON APR 28 2014

MINIMAL CHANGES TODAY AS THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH ABOUT FRIDAY. UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST WITH WEAK WAVES
ROTATING OVER COLORADO FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND NORTH WINDS BLOWING...BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE
FAIRLY STABLE AND ANY CONVECTION WILL EITHER BE ELEVATED OR CAPPED
AT A LOW LEVEL. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A LOW LEVEL OF WEAK SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND STILL LOOKS GOOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A TREND
TOWARD A BIT MORE COLD ADVECTION WITH THE WEAK WAVES...KEEPING US
FROM MUCH WARMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BIT MORE LIFT IS SHOWN WITH
SOME INTERACTION LATE WEDNESDAY BETWEEN A WAVE COMING OVER THE
RIDGE AND ONE COMING AROUND THE BACK OF THE LOW. THIS GENERATES AN
AREA OF LIFT...PROBABLY OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND
COULD BE ONE LAST GASP OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE STILL MAY BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND THURSDAY BUT WE WILL GET
ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT TO CAP CONVECTION. SURFACE WARMING WILL LAG
THE WARMING ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THERE MAY BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE WARMING ALOFT AS THE LOW DEPARTS FOR
GOOD.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A FAIRLY SEASONABLE PATTERN WITH
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. PRETTY DRY INITIALLY...BUT AS THE
SURFACE WARMS AND MOISTENS A LITTLE WILL TREND BACK TOWARD
SEASONAL DIURNAL CONVECTION BY MONDAY. NOT LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL
BE MUCH EFFECT FROM AN UPSTREAM TROUGH YET...BUT COULD INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND/OR WINDS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT MON APR 28 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 35 KTS AT KDEN. WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS
EVENING...THOUGH WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 12 KTS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF DENVER
AREA THIS EVENING...SHOULD NOT HAVE AN IMPACT AT THE AREA
AIRPORTS. VFR TO CONTINUE WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 12000 FEET AGL.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE BY 15Z WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AFTER 18Z WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS FROM 35
TO 40 KTS...HIGHEST AT KDEN. SOME SHOWERS AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF DENVER. VFR TO
CONTINUE WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ048>051.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ042-044>051.

&&

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...D-L

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1001 AM MDT MON APR 28 2014

COZ030>051-291615-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-
WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/
GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE
9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY-
1001 AM MDT MON APR 28 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO UNTIL 9 PM
MDT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN TODAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
STERLING TO AKRON WHERE SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON
ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS TO 60 MPH. ELSEWHERE...WIND GUSTS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 35 TO 50 MPH RANGE TODAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
TODAY AND ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT. LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED IN HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

A DEEP AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA WILL
KEEP THE WINDY AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY GUST TO 60 MPH TUESDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NORTHEAST
COLORADO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...ANY REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE
APPRECIATED.

D_L/GIMMESTAD

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
302 PM MDT MON APR 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 E HAXTUN              40.64N 102.55W
04/28/2014  M67.00 MPH       PHILLIPS           CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

1206 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST HOLYOKE                 40.58N 102.30W
04/28/2014  M62.00 MPH       PHILLIPS           CO   MESONET

0300 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N AKRON               40.18N 103.21W
04/28/2014  M60.00 MPH       WASHINGTON         CO   ASOS

&&

KBOWEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
504 PM MDT MON APR 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 E HAXTUN              40.64N 102.55W
04/28/2014  M67.00 MPH       PHILLIPS           CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

1206 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST HOLYOKE                 40.58N 102.30W
04/28/2014  M62.00 MPH       PHILLIPS           CO   MESONET

1227 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N STRASBURG           39.75N 104.30W
04/28/2014  M55.00 MPH       ADAMS              CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0300 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N AKRON               40.18N 103.21W
04/28/2014  M60.00 MPH       WASHINGTON         CO   ASOS

0410 PM     HIGH SUST WINDS  STERLING                40.65N 103.21W
04/28/2014  M40.00 MPH       LOGAN              CO   AWOS

0435 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST HOLYOKE                 40.58N 102.30W
04/28/2014  M59.00 MPH       PHILLIPS           CO   AWOS

&&

KBOWEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
506 PM MDT MON APR 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 E HAXTUN              40.64N 102.55W
04/28/2014  M67.00 MPH       PHILLIPS           CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

1206 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST HOLYOKE                 40.58N 102.30W
04/28/2014  M62.00 MPH       PHILLIPS           CO   MESONET

1227 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N STRASBURG           39.75N 104.30W
04/28/2014  M55.00 MPH       ADAMS              CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0300 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N AKRON               40.18N 103.21W
04/28/2014  M60.00 MPH       WASHINGTON         CO   ASOS

0410 PM     HIGH SUST WINDS  STERLING                40.65N 103.21W
04/28/2014  M40.00 MPH       LOGAN              CO   AWOS

0435 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST HOLYOKE                 40.58N 102.30W
04/28/2014  M59.00 MPH       PHILLIPS           CO   AWOS

0459 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W NORTHGLENN          39.91N 104.99W
04/28/2014  M50.00 MPH       ADAMS              CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KBOWEN