Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Boise, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
243 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...FEWER THUNDERSTORMS AT 2 PM MDT THAN YESTERDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN BAKER COUNTY/OR WHERE STRONG STORMS DEVELOPED
YESTERDAY NEAR A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  TODAY THERE ARE NONE
SO FAR.  CU ARE BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS BUT SWLY
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS FROM DRIFTING BACK INTO
THE SNAKE BASIN.  A COUPLE NEW STORMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED IN THE
OWYHEES AND IN SRN MALHEUR COUNTY.  THE MONSOON FLOW HAS BEEN PUSHED
EAST AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE NOW IS COMING FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH
CENTRAL CALIF AND NEVADA.  WITHIN THAT FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WE SEE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN WRN NEVADA HEADING TOWARD OUR CWA.  THE LONG
WAVE RIDGE IS STILL ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...CLOSE ENOUGH TO
LET MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO IDAHO ZONES WITH ANY EMBEDDED WAVE
THAT CAN TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY.  LATEST FORECAST HAS SCALED
BACK THE QPF IN THE BOISE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT A VERY
MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL BE
APPROACHING SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER NORTH
OVER OUR AREA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW SUNDAY/S HIGHS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH FRIDAY.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WILL CONTINUE IN
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30 KTS OR MORE IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 10 KT UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT/AB
AVIATION.....JT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
344 PM MDT FRI AUG 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S ANDERSON DAM        43.32N 115.45W
07/31/2014                   ELMORE             ID   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            FLASH FLOODING AND LAND SLIDES ON THE SOUTH END OF THE
            ELK COMPLEX BURN SCAR NEAR ANDERSON RANCH DAM. SEVERAL
            ROADS COMPROMISED INCLUDING ANDERSON RANCH DAM ROAD AND
            HIGHWAY 20 WHICH HAVE BEEN CLOSED.

&&

JSMITH