Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Boise, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
222 PM MDT TUE AUG 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO TROUGH THE EVENING. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS ACTIVITY MAY SHIFT INTO THE MAGIC VALLEY AS
THE AIR HAS BEEN RAIN COOLED A BIT OVER EASTERN OREGON AND
EXTREME WESTERN IDAHO MAKING THE AIR LESS UNSTABLE THAN IT WAS.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN ALL AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. TOMORROW
WILL BE ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AS AN 80 KT JET MAX MOVES
AROUND THE BASE OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER OREGON. THE JET MAX
WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW AND THERE WILL STILL
BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE AREA. SO...EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
IN THE STRONGER STORMS. THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT ONLY A BIT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...SO WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST BAKER COUNTY AND IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO ON THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH OREGON AND WASHINGTON... AND THEN
MOVE INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE LOW
WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE OREGON
TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY AND CENTRAL IDAHO WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 KNOTS...HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTH 5-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHERLY 15-25
KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT IDZ400>403-420.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT
     ORZ636-637-646.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM....JS/DD
AVIATION.....JS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
230 PM MDT TUE AUG 12 2014

IDZ013-014-122115-
UPPER TREASURE VALLEY ID-BOISE MOUNTAINS ID-
230 PM MDT TUE AUG 12 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OWYHEE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ELMORE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM MDT...

AT 230 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
MOUNTAIN HOME AIR FORCE BASE...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOUNTAIN
HOME...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MOUNTAIN HOME AROUND 300 PM MDT.
  TOLLGATE AROUND 310 PM MDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE RELAY STORM REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN BOISE IDAHO VIA LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT...OR NWS
BOISE FACEBOOK AND TWITTER ACCOUNTS.

&&

LAT...LON 4292 11580 4301 11601 4339 11575 4325 11544
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 212DEG 20KT 4303 11585

JDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
235 PM MDT TUE AUG 12 2014

IDZ016-030-122115-
SOUTHERN TWIN  FALLS COUNTY ID-WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY ID-
235 PM MDT TUE AUG 12 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GOODING...WEST
CENTRAL JEROME AND WEST CENTRAL TWIN FALLS COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM
MDT...

AT 235 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES SOUTHWEST OF FILER...OR 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TWIN FALLS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND BREIF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BUHL AROUND 300 PM MDT.
  TWIN FALLS...JEROME...FILER AND WENDELL AROUND 310 PM MDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE RELAY STORM REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN BOISE IDAHO VIA LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT...OR NWS
BOISE FACEBOOK AND TWITTER ACCOUNTS.

&&

LAT...LON 4233 11466 4241 11488 4281 11469 4268 11435
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 207DEG 20KT 4244 11473

JS