Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Boise, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
253 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGES WERE DETECTING ISOLATED CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SO FAR ONE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED NEAR THE STEENS.
NEWEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
BE ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. STRONGER STORMS MAY FORM OVER FAR NORTHERN HARNEY COUNTY
/INCLUDING BURNS/ AND BAKER COUNTY WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT THERE
WILL BE MORE OF THE SAME WITH CONVECTION INCREASING DURING THE
DAY...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MAIN CONCERN BEGINS ON
MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM /CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN U.S./ MOVES NORTHWARD AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
MONSOON SURGE. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY...AVERAGING 1.25 INCHES BY THE AFTERNOON. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINFALL.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT THE SITUATION
WILL BE MONITORED. DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND CONVECTION...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A SURGE OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PRESENTLY SITUATED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL REACH 97TH PERCENTILE OR AROUND 1.18IN AT
KBOI ON TUESDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S SO
EXPECT A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER LEVEL STEERING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO EXPECT STORMS TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND A FLASH FLOOD THREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER BURN
SCARS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THIS
FEATURE. THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EAST BUT KEEPS A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SMOKE LAYERS FROM FIRES IN OR AND CA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS EXCEPT IN VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHERE GUSTS TO 45KT
POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW. SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY 10-20KT FROM 00-06Z SUN.WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...SOUTHERLY 5-15KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA/DD
AVIATION.....KA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
359 PM MDT SAT AUG 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     HAIL             2 WSW DUNNEAN           43.43N 118.29W
08/02/2014  M0.50 INCH       HARNEY             OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JSMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
448 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

ORZ063-022330-
MALHEUR COUNTY OR-
448 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MALHEUR COUNTY UNTIL 530
PM MDT...

AT 448 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 27
MILES NORTHWEST OF ROME...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SACRAMENTO BUTTE AROUND 450 PM MDT.
  CEDAR MOUNTAIN AROUND 510 PM MDT.
  KNOTTINGHAM BUTTE...DIAMOND BUTTE AND SOUTHERN OWYHEE RESERVOIR
AROUND 530 PM MDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE RELAY STORM REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN BOISE IDAHO VIA LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT...OR NWS
BOISE FACEBOOK AND TWITTER ACCOUNTS.

&&

LAT...LON 4308 11783 4322 11798 4353 11755 4332 11732
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 230DEG 22KT 4320 11783

DG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
420 PM PDT SAT AUG 2 2014

ORZ062-030000-
BAKER COUNTY OR-
420 PM PDT SAT AUG 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MALHEUR AND
SOUTHWESTERN BAKER COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM PDT...

AT 419 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16
MILES WEST OF IRONSIDE...OR 36 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BAKER CITY...MOVING
NORTH AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  UNITY AND ELK CREEK CAMPGROUND AROUND 430 PM PDT.
  UNITY RESERVOIR...UNITY DAM AND BLUE MOUNTAIN PASS AROUND 440 PM
PDT.
  LARCH SUMMIT...ANTLERS FOREST SERVICE STATION...SUMPTER AND MCEWEN
AROUND 500 PM PDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE RELAY STORM REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN BOISE IDAHO VIA LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT...OR NWS
BOISE FACEBOOK AND TWITTER ACCOUNTS.

&&

LAT...LON 4477 11800 4427 11816 4429 11841 4446 11840
      4447 11836 4453 11837 4459 11830 4465 11838
      4475 11837 4475 11829 4479 11829
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 187DEG 27KT 4436 11828

DG

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