Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Boise, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
253 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGES WERE DETECTING ISOLATED CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SO FAR ONE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED NEAR THE STEENS.
NEWEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
BE ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. STRONGER STORMS MAY FORM OVER FAR NORTHERN HARNEY COUNTY
/INCLUDING BURNS/ AND BAKER COUNTY WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT THERE
WILL BE MORE OF THE SAME WITH CONVECTION INCREASING DURING THE
DAY...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MAIN CONCERN BEGINS ON
MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM /CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN U.S./ MOVES NORTHWARD AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
MONSOON SURGE. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY...AVERAGING 1.25 INCHES BY THE AFTERNOON. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINFALL.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT THE SITUATION
WILL BE MONITORED. DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND CONVECTION...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A SURGE OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PRESENTLY SITUATED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL REACH 97TH PERCENTILE OR AROUND 1.18IN AT
KBOI ON TUESDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S SO
EXPECT A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER LEVEL STEERING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO EXPECT STORMS TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND A FLASH FLOOD THREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER BURN
SCARS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THIS
FEATURE. THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EAST BUT KEEPS A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SMOKE LAYERS FROM FIRES IN OR AND CA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS EXCEPT IN VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHERE GUSTS TO 45KT
POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW. SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY 10-20KT FROM 00-06Z SUN.WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...SOUTHERLY 5-15KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA/DD
AVIATION.....KA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
256 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

ORZ061-063-022130-
MALHEUR COUNTY OR-HARNEY COUNTY OR-
256 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MALHEUR AND EAST
CENTRAL HARNEY COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM MDT/230 PM PDT/...

AT 256 PM MDT /156 PM PDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 19 MILES SOUTH OF NEW PRINCETON...OR 47 MILES WEST OF
ROME...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RIDDLE MOUNTAIN AROUND 210 PM PDT.
  FOLLYFARM FLAT AROUND 230 PM PDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

WHEN SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE RELAY STORM REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN BOISE IDAHO VIA LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT...OR NWS
BOISE FACEBOOK AND TWITTER ACCOUNTS.

&&

LAT...LON 4292 11855 4304 11865 4325 11837 4304 11815
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 232DEG 17KT 4300 11853

KA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
350 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

ORZ061-063-022230-
MALHEUR COUNTY OR-HARNEY COUNTY OR-
350 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL MALHEUR AND
NORTHEASTERN HARNEY COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM MDT/330 PM PDT/...

AT 349 PM MDT /249 PM PDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES EAST OF CRANE...OR 41 MILES EAST OF BURNS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RIVERSIDE AROUND 410 PM MDT.
  WARM SPRINGS RESERVOIR AROUND 420 PM MDT.
  JUNTURA...MOSQUITO MOUNTAIN AND MONUMENT PEAK AROUND 430 PM MDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE RELAY STORM REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN BOISE IDAHO VIA LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT...OR NWS
BOISE FACEBOOK AND TWITTER ACCOUNTS.

&&

LAT...LON 4379 11815 4365 11784 4332 11820 4342 11841
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 212DEG 20KT 4344 11825

DG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
353 PM MDT SAT AUG 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     HAIL             2 WSW DUNNEAN           43.43N 118.29W
08/02/2014  M0.75 INCH       HARNEY             OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JSMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
359 PM MDT SAT AUG 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     HAIL             2 WSW DUNNEAN           43.43N 118.29W
08/02/2014  M0.50 INCH       HARNEY             OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JSMITH