Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1213 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY BISECTING THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST
WILL SINK VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PREVALENT AND ALTHOUGH SKIES MAY CLEAR
BRIEFLY....CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN. FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH DRIER AIR FINALLY RETURNING
LATE IN THE PERIOD. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT KAND AND FOR ALL TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE
WHEN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR/

UPDATE...

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE FOG WORDING FROM MORNING
FORECAST...AS WELL AS TO ADJUST THE MORNING POP/WX GRIDS. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...

FOR 12Z AVIATION.

DISCUSSION...

IT APPEARS THAT OUR PESKY SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED BACK A BIT
NORTH...BASED LARGELY ON DEW POINT ANALYSIS. LOW LEVELS REMAIN
VERY MOIST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PATCHY FOG WAS EVIDENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. BRIEFLY CONTEMPLATED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
EARLIER...AS A FEW SPOTS SHOWED VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 MILE. BUT THE
WORST VISIBILITIES HAVE SINCE IMPROVED TO THE POINT WHERE A DFA IS
NOT NEEDED. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST...AND IN THE
HWO...THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS HOWEVER.

MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD PUSH BACK TO THE SOUTH OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TREKS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE MORE MOISTURE RICH AREAS
OF THE SOUTH.

THE MIDDLE TO END OF WEEK PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER...WITH
LOWER DEW POINTS. INTERESTINGLY...WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH WHAT HAPPENS
TO THE PLUME OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE IN THE
PACIFIC. MODELS SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE COULD GET CAUGHT UP IN THE
WESTERLIES BY THE WEEKEND...AND EVENTUALLY LINK UP WITH A
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

/61/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS BEEN BRINGING
VISIBILITIES UP AND DOWN WHICH HAS BEEN MORE TROUBLESOME ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AS THE WESTERN HALF HAS HAD MORE MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ANY LINGERING LOW CIGS/FOG SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY MID MORNING WITH MIXING. A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL HAVE A MENTION OF TSRA TEMPOED IN
FOR EAST/SOUTHEAST POTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT...IE EET/ANB/MGM/TOI.
CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

08/MK

NOTE: WE WILL BEGIN BACK WITH OUR SEASONAL ISSUANCE OF KASN TAF
(TALLADEGA AL) ON OCTOBER 5TH AT THE 00Z ISSUANCE AND IT WILL RUN
THROUGH OCTOBER 23RD 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     87  64  83  59  83 /  20  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    87  66  84  60  83 /  30  10   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  88  67  85  63  86 /  30  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  90  68  89  64  88 /  30  10   0   0  10
CALERA      87  68  87  63  86 /  30  10   0   0  10
AUBURN      89  69  89  63  87 /  40  20   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  91  70  91  64  89 /  40  20   0   0  10
TROY        91  69  91  63  90 /  40  20  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

07/07/56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
900 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ALZ011>015-017>050-171400-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
900 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LZK/55

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1221 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ALZ050-161735-
BARBOUR AL-
1221 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BARBOUR COUNTY UNTIL
1230 PM CDT...

AT 1221 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT A THUNDERSTORM WAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CLIO...OR 19 MILES WEST OF ABBEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BLUE SPGS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3161 8565 3162 8566 3167 8566 3173 8550
      3165 8541 3162 8541 3161 8542
TIME...MOT...LOC 1721Z 332DEG 9KT 3166 8555

LZK/55