Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
344 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

.DISCUSSION...

FIRST OFF...WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS MS AND POISED TO MOVE INTO ALABAMA.
NOTED A 51 KT GUST EARLIER THIS MORNING AT GLH...AND SUSPECT THIS
LINE WILL HAVE SIMILAR GUSTS ALONG IT IS RACES EASTWARD. ROUGH
ANALYSIS GETS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STORMS INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES JUST BEFORE 5 AM...AND APPROACHING I-59 BETWEEN 7 AND 8
AM. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THE LINE REACHES ITS PEAK INTENSITY
BEFORE IT ACTUALLY GETS TO ALABAMA...AS MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING IS LIFTING OUT TO OUR NORTH. HAVING SAID THAT...THE LINE
COULD VERY WELL STILL BRING SOME VERY INTENSE STORMS WITH QUITE A
BIT OF DAMAGING WINDS TO AREAS NORTH OF I-20/59 AND WEST OF I-65.
WITH THE LINE FULLY DEVELOPED NOW...AND WITH A GOOD HEAD OF
STEAM...MY CONFIDENCE IN SOME SORT OF REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
BACK BEHIND (ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT) IT IS REALLY WANING.
EVEN IF IT DECREASES TO BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AS IT MARCHES ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA...IT WILL STILL HAVE A LARGE STABILIZING COMPONENT
TO IT. IN MY MIND...THE PRIMARY THREAT TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA IS EITHER THE LINE HOLDS ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES IN...OR
THE CURRENT LINE RE-INTENSIFIES AS CONDITIONS WARM UP AHEAD OF IT
AFTER SUNRISE. A SCENARIO OF COMPLETE WEAKENING AND DEATH OF THE
LINE...TO BE FOLLOWED BY STORM DEVELOPMENT INDEPENDENT OF THE
LINE...JUST SEEMS LESS PLAUSIBLE.

ALL RAIN CHANCES SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
LEAVE A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN FREE CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT GETTING HUNG UP ALONG THE COAST AND
ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR ANOTHER SOAKING SYSTEM LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

THE OLD COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO TURN AROUND (AND NOT DROWN)...
AND TRY TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL BE DIFFICULT AT
FIRST...AS A LARGE AREA OF RAIN IS FORECAST TO BREAK OUT ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL TRY TO KEEP CONDITIONS COOLER. BUT
AS A SURFACE LOW FORMS AND BEGINS TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
OUT OF THE GULF...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD EVENTUALLY HELP
PUSH THE FRONT NORTHWARD AT LEAST PART WAY ACROSS OUR CWA.

THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS AN IMPORTANT BEARING ON HOW
MUCH CONDITIONS CAN WARM UP AND SUBSEQUENTLY DESTABILIZE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPERIENCE TELLS ME ITS GOING TO BE A TOUGH
GO...BUT STILL POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...I THINK OUR ONGOING
MESSAGE OF A PRIMARILY SOUTHERN ALABAMA THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
IS STILL VALID...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HWO.

WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD ON MONDAY...ANY
SEVERE THREAT THAT IS REALIZED WILL END BEFORE NOON. THAT WILL
LEAVE US WITH A DRYING AND COOLING WEST WIND. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES BRIEFLY QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP TROUGH RIGHT OVER US
ON TUESDAY...WHICH COULD ACTUALLY DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED BY THE MODELS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
CIGS LOWERING BACK TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE
LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND WILL BE SLIDING NORTHWARD. LOWEST
CIGS LOOK TO BE OBSERVED IN THE SOUTH AROUND TOI/MGM WHERE IFR IS
LIKELY. MODELS HAVE SLOWED A TOUCH IN THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF
THE LINE OF STORMS. WITH THAT IN MIND THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
A TOUCH MORE MOIST AND IFR CIGS ARE NOW POSSIBLE AT ALL ALL SITE
BY 9 TO 12Z.

A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING. CONTINUED TO
FINE TUNE THE START TIME OF THE STORMS AND SHOWERS WITH A BLEND OF
THE SREF AND NAM OMEGA FIELDS. THESE TIMES WILL MOST CERTAINLY
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LATER TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO
THE AREA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST/SOUTH
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVES
THRU. MOST OF THIS WILL BE BETWEEN 18 AND 00Z.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     71  45  63  47  63 /  70   0  10  40  80
ANNISTON    72  46  64  47  63 /  70  10  10  40  80
BIRMINGHAM  72  46  64  48  62 /  70   0  10  40  80
TUSCALOOSA  73  47  65  49  63 /  70   0  10  50  80
CALERA      73  48  66  50  63 /  70   0  10  50  80
AUBURN      75  52  68  50  62 /  70  30  20  70  80
MONTGOMERY  79  54  69  52  65 /  50  20  30  80  80
TROY        79  56  70  52  65 /  50  30  30  80  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

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