Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1202 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY FINALLY BE COMING
INTO BETTER FOCUS THIS MORNING WITH THE HELP OF SHORT RANGE
MODELS. THOUGH CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE GULF COAST THIS
MORNING...IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INSTEAD OF STALLING...
WHICH MEANS IT IS LESS LIKELY TO BLOCK THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE WARM SECTOR. CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
CWA ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH ALABAMA AND IS LIKELY TO HAVE TROUBLE
MOVING NORTHWARD...NOT BECAUSE OF COASTAL CONVECTION...BUT INSTEAD
A COOL WEDGE. EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INTO THIS EVENING. THE LAST
FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THE WARM FRONT HAVING TROUBLE MOVING
NORTH OF A LINE FROM DEMOPOLIS TO EUFAULA THROUGH 00Z. MEANWHILE
THE HRRR ALSO SUGGESTS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WILL
BE A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...NEAR THE FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...WHERE A QLCS MAY ORGANIZE THIS
AFTERNOON. IF THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO OCCURS...THE BEST CHANCE
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTH THE
INTERSECTION OF THE QLCS AND THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA STARTING AROUND 20Z IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE QLCS REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH MEAN-LAYER
FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE QLCS AND THE BEST UPPER-LEVEL FORCING
NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER 03Z. THIS COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING TONIGHT IF THE QLCS SLOWS DOWN FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME. THE QLCS WILL PROBABLY EXIT OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY 09Z
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEINGS TO SHIFT EASTWARD.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS
FOR WITH FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
LIMITED PERIODS OF MVFR. THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST TERMINAL
LOCATIONS. CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
AS SHOWERS PASS OVER TERMINALS...BUT ONLY MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT CAN
BE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...EXITING ALABAMA WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AS DRY AIR SINKS INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014/

A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY FINALLY BE COMING
INTO BETTER FOCUS THIS MORNING WITH THE HELP OF SHORT RANGE
MODELS. THOUGH CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE GULF COAST THIS
MORNING...IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INSTEAD OF STALLING...
WHICH MEANS IT IS LESS LIKELY TO BLOCK THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE WARM SECTOR. CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
CWA ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH ALABAMA AND IS LIKELY TO HAVE TROUBLE
MOVING NORTHWARD...NOT BECAUSE OF COASTAL CONVECTION...BUT INSTEAD
A COOL WEDGE. EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INTO THIS EVENING. THE LAST
FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THE WARM FRONT HAVING TROUBLE MOVING
NORTH OF A LINE FROM DEMOPOLIS TO EUFAULA THROUGH 00Z. MEANWHILE
THE HRRR ALSO SUGGESTS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WILL
BE A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...NEAR THE FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...WHERE A QLCS MAY ORGANIZE THIS
AFTERNOON. IF THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO OCCURS...THE BEST CHANCE
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTH THE
INTERSECTION OF THE QLCS AND THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA STARTING AROUND 20Z IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE QLCS REMAINS IN QUESTION WITH MEAN-LAYER
FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE QLCS AND THE BEST UPPER-LEVEL FORCING
NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER 03Z. THIS COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING TONIGHT IF THE QLCS SLOWS DOWN FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME. THE QLCS WILL PROBABLY EXIT OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY 09Z
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEINGS TO SHIFT EASTWARD.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS
FOR WITH FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BULLOCK...ELMORE...LEE...LOWNDES...
MACON...MONTGOMERY...PIKE...RUSSELL.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

ALZ011>015-017>050-241245-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
636 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE...LOW-END THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...AND A TORNADO OR TWO GENERALLY SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM ALICEVILLE TO WETUMPKA TO PHENIX CITY. THIS THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 3 PM IN THE SOUTHWEST AND END BY 3 AM
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OVERNIGHT GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
901 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

ALZ034-231545-
BIBB AL-
901 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BIBB COUNTY UNTIL 945 AM CST...

AT 900 AM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR LOW GAP...OR 13 MILES WEST OF BRENT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  LOW GAP...
  EOLINE...
  WEST BLOCTON...
  WOODSTOCK...
  HARMON...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3301 8742 3300 8732 3308 8732 3313 8728
      3313 8720 3320 8720 3323 8716 3324 8713
      3322 8711 3325 8707 3325 8703 3317 8703
      3316 8697 3310 8697 3308 8693 3287 8733
      3287 8741 3288 8742
TIME...MOT...LOC 1500Z 235DEG 24KT 3295 8739

56

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1103 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

ALZ018-231745-
ETOWAH AL-
1103 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ETOWAH COUNTY UNTIL 1145 AM
CST...

AT 1100 AM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR STEELE...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RAINBOW CITY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  RAINBOW CITY...
  GADSDEN...
  HOKES BLUFF...
  ATTALLA...
  GADSDEN MALL...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3420 8584 3411 8584 3412 8579 3410 8580
      3404 8576 3385 8603 3384 8605 3387 8607
      3386 8609 3390 8611 3390 8614 3393 8616
      3396 8616 3399 8621 3420 8602
TIME...MOT...LOC 1703Z 220DEG 42KT 3392 8613

56

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1146 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

ALZ012-022-231830-
LAMAR AL-PICKENS AL-
1146 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PICKENS AND SOUTHERN
LAMAR COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CST...

AT 1142 AM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
COLUMBUS TO NEW HOPE TO 9 MILES WEST OF BEVILL LOCK AND DAM...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  VERNON...
  MILLPORT...
  ETHELSVILLE...
  BLOOMING GROVE...
  KENNEDY...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3368 8827 3388 8795 3352 8795 3330 8830
TIME...MOT...LOC 1746Z 233DEG 36KT 3359 8827 3346 8828
          3328 8840

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1153 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BALLPLAY                34.05N 85.81W
12/23/2014                   ETOWAH             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWERLINES DOWN NEAR CENTRE HWY IN THE BALLPLAY
            COMMUNITY. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

TGOGGINS