Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Birmingham, AL

100 
WWUS54 KBMX 132102
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
402 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

ALC009-073-115-132145-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0128.000000T0000Z-141013T2145Z/
BLOUNT AL-JEFFERSON AL-ST. CLAIR AL-
402 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
ST. CLAIR...NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND BLOUNT COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM
CDT...

AT 402 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN 
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING 
FROM ARKADELPHIA TO LOCUST FORK TO 6 MILES EAST OF 
SPRINGVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH. TREES HAVE BEEN BLOWN DOWN 
WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CLEVELAND...ONEONTA...BLOUNTSVILLE...ASHVILLE...ALLGOOD...
  FAIRVIEW...BANGOR...NECTAR...STEELE AND ROSA.

THIS INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 65 EXIT NUMBERS 275 THROUGH 282...
INTERSTATE 59 EXIT NUMBERS 148 THROUGH 166...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3411 8630 3394 8637 3394 8633 3399 8628
      3397 8625 3399 8622 3397 8618 3366 8625
      3371 8693 3372 8693 3387 8696 3387 8693
      3391 8693 3396 8684 3396 8680 3404 8671
      3409 8671 3412 8661 3423 8654
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 178DEG 42KT 3393 8688 3393 8659
          3382 8638

$$

75

991 
WWUS54 KBMX 132138
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
438 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

ALC009-073-115-132148-
/O.EXP.KBMX.SV.W.0128.000000T0000Z-141013T2145Z/
BLOUNT AL-JEFFERSON AL-ST. CLAIR AL-
438 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN ST. CLAIR...
NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND BLOUNT COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM
CDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE
WARNED AREA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO 
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. 

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3411 8630 3394 8637 3394 8633 3399 8628
      3397 8625 3399 8622 3397 8618 3366 8625
      3371 8693 3372 8693 3387 8696 3387 8693
      3391 8693 3396 8684 3396 8680 3404 8671
      3409 8671 3412 8661 3423 8654
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 178DEG 42KT 3435 8690 3435 8661
          3424 8640

$$

75

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1226 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. LOW TO MID-LEVEL WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FROM THIS MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING AND THIS FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN WARM MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH. THE FIRST THING OF NOTE THIS MORNING IS THAT THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS ALREADY A COUPLE HOURS AHEAD OF THE FASTEST
HI-RES MODELS. THIS LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE QUICKLY
APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THIS LINE WILL MOVE IN A BIT QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND WILL MOST LIKELY BE KNOCKING ON OUR
DOORSTEPS IN THE 22-01Z TIMEFRAME. THEREFORE...ADJUSTED TIMING UP
BY A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SPEED OF THE LINE AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL LATER TODAY. THIS COULD ACT TO SLOW THE
LINE DOWN SOME BUT CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST A FASTER EVOLUTION.

THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE
LINE WITH 0-1KM SRH VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2. MOST OF THE MODELS
SUGGEST THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE LINE
AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED CELLS JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE
AND ANY BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE LINE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES. EXPECT CONVECTION WILL FIRE WELL AHEAD OF THE LINE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. NOT AS
CONFIDENT WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THESE CELLS AS
SHORT RANGE MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
LOW LEVEL FORCING THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING HAS PUT
A HAMPER ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. SURFACE WINDS ARE BACKED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. LOOKING AT
RADAR...THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE GULF COAST PUSHING NORTHWARD. OVERALL...THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS
TO BE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE BUT THE CELLS THAT
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR SOME ROTATION.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA HAVE ALREADY
EXPERIENCED APPRECIABLE RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND EXPECT THE
CONTINUATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL CREATE THE POSSIBILITY
OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING
ELSEWHERE. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES WHICH IS NEAR
THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-OCTOBER. FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE
AROUND 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH 1-HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES LESS THAN 2 INCHES IN THE AREA OF THE FLASH FOOD
WATCH.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SQUALL LINE BECOMES LESS DEFINED AS IT
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. MOST OF THE MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CUT OFF MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE LINE CAUSING THE SQUALL
LINE TO BECOME LESS DEFINED AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL LATER IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY
AND SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
BEING WORKED OVER.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN ALONG THE GULF COAST. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE NORTHWARD AND WILL EFFECT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...HAVE JUST INCLUDED VCTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL MAKE
AMENDMENTS FOR TSRA AS NECESSARY. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL EFFECT ALL OF THE TERMINALS
AFTER 01Z THROUGH 12Z AND TRIED TO TIME THIS OUT IN THE TAFS. MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
LINE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS POSSIBLE.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA THROUGH AT LEAST THE 23RD OF OCTOBER.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BLOUNT...FAYETTE...LAMAR...
MARION...WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
112 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

ALZ011>015-017>050-141815-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
112 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND TORNADOES...EXIST THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY MORNING.

FIRST...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ISOLATED
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEST OF A TROY...TO ROCKFORD...TO RAGLAND LINE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SECOND...A SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE
AND EMBEDDED TORNADOES WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST AROUND 6 PM. THIS
SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS

ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM SELMA TO
BIRMINGHAM. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
OF 60 MPH OR GREATER AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THERE IS A SLIGHTLY
LOWER THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION.

ANY STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH 1.5 TO 3 INCHES
EXPECTED AREAWIDE THROUGH TOMORROW. PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA HAVE RECEIVED 2 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MILLPORT TO
CORDOVA TO ONEONTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A COMBINATION OF SQUALL LINE AND SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. THE
THREAT OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM MILLPORT TO CORDOVA TO ONEONTA THROUGH MID DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
225 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

ALZ030>032-039-132015-
GREENE AL-HALE AL-MARENGO AL-SUMTER AL-
225 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME EASTERN SUMTER...EXTREME
NORTHERN MARENGO...HALE AND EASTERN GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM
CDT...

AT 223 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR ARCOLA...OR 6 MILES EAST OF DEMOPOLIS...MOVING
NORTH AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  GREENSBORO...
  EUTAW...
  NEWBERN...
  FORKLAND...
  DUFFYS BEND...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3306 8797 3306 8783 3302 8783 3302 8772
      3300 8763 3300 8743 3283 8745 3283 8747
      3275 8747 3265 8749 3265 8753 3248 8752
      3249 8790
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 185DEG 33KT 3258 8773

05/MA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
244 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

ALZ030-031-132030-
GREENE AL-SUMTER AL-
244 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SUMTER AND WESTERN GREENE
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 241 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR COATOPA...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LIVINGSTON...
MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  LIVINGSTON...
  DUG HILL...
  THE UNIVERSITY OF WEST ALABAMA...
  BLUFFPORT...
  TISHABEE...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3299 8787 3245 8799 3242 8804 3243 8820
      3300 8827
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 186DEG 33KT 3249 8810

05/MA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
249 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E DEMOPOLIS           32.52N 87.82W
10/13/2014                   MARENGO            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF BLOWN OFF A LAUNDROMAT JUST EAST OF DEMOPOLIS ON US
            80. ALSO SEVERAL TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY AS THE
            STORM MOVED THROUGH.

&&

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
300 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

ALZ015-024>027-034-036-132045-
BIBB AL-COOSA AL-JEFFERSON AL-SHELBY AL-ST. CLAIR AL-TALLADEGA
AL-WALKER AL-
300 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WALKER...
SOUTHWESTERN TALLADEGA...SHELBY...SOUTHWESTERN ST. CLAIR...
JEFFERSON...NORTHWESTERN COOSA AND NORTHEASTERN BIBB COUNTIES UNTIL
345 PM CDT...

AT 258 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM UNIVERSITY OF MONTEVALLO TO
SHELBY COUNTY AIRPORT TO FAYETTEVILLE...AND MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  COLUMBIANA...
  ALABASTER...
  WILSONVILLE...
  PELHAM...
  HELENA...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3372 8644 3304 8624 3310 8669 3307 8683
      3307 8688 3305 8688 3303 8700 3371 8720
      3379 8690
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 166DEG 39KT 3314 8692 3319 8672
          3314 8637

05/MA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
341 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S WILSONVILLE         33.23N 86.48W
10/13/2014                   SHELBY             AL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            FOUR TREES APPROXIMATELY 8 INCHES IN DIAMETER BROKEN OFF
            AT FOUR FEET ABOVE THE GROUND.

&&

DAVIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
346 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BIRMINGHAM              33.53N 86.80W
10/13/2014                   JEFFERSON          AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            A POWER POLE WAS SNAPPED OFF ON HIGHWAY 78 IN PRATT CITY.

&&

LINHARES