Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
654 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION AND EVENING FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR CHANGES IN THE RADAR
TRENDS AND OVERALL THINKING. CURRENTLY WATCHING THE SECOND ROUND
OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SLIDING THROUGH. THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE
SOUTHWARD MOTION WITH THESE CELLS AND THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF
THE SYSTEM...SO ADJUSTED POPS AND TIMING. RAISED POPS IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO DEFINITE AND LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
STILL SOME GOOD LIFT AVAILABLE OUT THERE THIS EVENING AND WILL
MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT FOR THROUGH AT LEAST 10 PM IN THE
NORTHWEST. WILL BE UPDATING THE HWO IN A FEW MINUTES. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE NIGHT.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE PROGRESSION OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE NOT MADE IT AS FAR
SOUTH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGH SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NORTHERN
TAFS. ALSO THE NEWEST RUNS ARE NOW INDICATING SOME POSSIBLE MFVR
CIGS IN THE NORTH AFTER 12Z SO INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH 18Z. WILL BE RE-EVALUATING THE FORECAST BY 03Z TO SEE IF
ANY CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS BEGUN ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECAST WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
23RD OF OCTOBER.

16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 249 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BROUGHT INCREASED MOISTURE BACK TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEWPOINTS NOW AT 60 DEGREES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MENTIONED IN THE
EARLIER DISCUSSION...A RESULT OF CONVECTION ACROSS MISSISSIPPI
THIS MORNING...CROSSED THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED AND PUSHED NORTHEASTWARD. STILL LOOKING BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST FOR DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS.

INSTABILITY WITHIN THE AIRMASS TO THE NORTH AND WEST IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE...WITH CAPE VALUES NOW OVER 1000 J/KG. THIS
IS ALSO THE AREA OF BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE. AS OF 1930Z...SEEING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA INCREASE AND PUSH
TO THE NORTHEAST. FORCING IS NOT QUITE AS GOOD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOW LEVEL JET TO OUR NORTH AND
UPPER LEVEL JET NOT NOSING INTO THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS AND A LOW CONFIDENCE MENTION OF SEVERE IN
THE HWO FOR THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE STORM ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON WAS NOT A
NECESSARILY TALL STORM BUT IT DID PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. EXPECT ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL POSE A HAIL THREAT. NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE REMAINS INCONSISTENT IN HANDLING THE IMPULSES ROTATING
AROUND THE TROUGH AND WHICH ONES PRODUCE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THEY DO GENERALLY SHOW SCATTERED STORMS
TONIGHT...WITH A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-20 LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS. A WEAK FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH
EJECTS TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A COUPLE DRY PERIODS
AROUND MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     57  81  60  83  56 /  70  60  30  10  10
ANNISTON    60  81  62  84  59 /  40  40  30  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  63  82  65  83  61 /  40  40  30  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  61  85  64  85  60 /  40  30  30  10  10
CALERA      61  83  63  84  60 /  30  30  20  10  10
AUBURN      60  81  64  84  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  60  86  61  86  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        58  84  60  85  59 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
656 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

ALZ011>015-017>050-080000-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
656 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH 10 PM AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MAIN THREAT AREA WILL BE ALONG
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM VERNON TO ONEONTA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL
BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER AND LARGE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 10 PM.

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