Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
244 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR COVERAGE HAS INCREASED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN TRAILING FROM
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHEASTWARD INTO GEORGIA...WHERE CONVECTION IS
MORE ORGANIZED. MEANWHILE...TO OUR WEST...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE CROSSING MISSISSIPPI...WHERE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING TO THE EAST. STORM COVERAGE
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE
AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST THOUGHTS REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED...AND
STILL CAN'T RULE OUT DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE PARTICULARLY WET ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...WITH PWS TOPPING OUT ABOVE 2 INCHES. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE
AND POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COVERAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
APPROACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK AND EXCEED IT IN MANY LOCATIONS.
MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE
MUCH OF THE SAME...WITH THE GREATER LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN CONUS BY
MONDAY...AND WILL HELP TO DEEPEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST...A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL DEVELOP AND APPROACH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AND IT
ENTERING THE CWA ON TUESDAY AND THEN STALLING JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OVERALL SET UP...DID NOT
MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TUESDAY WILL HAVE
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE
INCREASED LIFT ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH...WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN. THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. MEANWHILE...CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR AN MCS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS IS EXTREMELY
UNCERTAIN AND WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PACKAGE WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. MOVED THE START TIME OF THE
TEMPO MENTION OF TSRA UP BY A COUPLE HOURS FOR ANB...BHM...EET...
AND TCL SINCE THE CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THESE SITES ARE BECOMING
WELL DEVELOPED...AND CONVECTION COULD FORM OVER THEM SHORTLY.
ALSO ADDED A TEMPO FOR TSRA AT MGM AND TOI SINCE PRECIP COVERAGE
HAS BEEN MORE THAN EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA THIS MORNING.

GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THE MICROBURST RISK OVER THE AREA TODAY IS HIGH. PRECIP COVERAGE
WILL LESSEN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT ANY SITE THAT RECEIVES RAINFALL TODAY...
BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A MENTION OF LIGHT FOG FOR TCL AND
TOI BASED ON PERSISTENCE.

77/GLEASON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     71  90  73  89  71 /  50  70  50  40  20
ANNISTON    72  90  73  90  72 /  50  70  50  60  20
BIRMINGHAM  74  91  74  91  74 /  50  70  50  50  20
TUSCALOOSA  74  92  74  92  73 /  30  70  40  50  20
CALERA      73  91  74  90  72 /  30  70  50  60  20
AUBURN      73  91  73  88  72 /  30  70  50  60  30
MONTGOMERY  74  93  75  91  73 /  20  70  50  60  30
TROY        73  92  74  89  72 /  20  70  40  60  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
120 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

ALZ011>015-017>050-091830-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
120 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS
UNLIKELY...BUT MAY BE NEEDED ON A LOCALIZED BASIS THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
409 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

ALZ037-043-045-046-082200-
BULLOCK AL-ELMORE AL-MACON AL-TALLAPOOSA AL-
409 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN TALLAPOOSA...
MACON...EASTERN ELMORE AND NORTHERN BULLOCK COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM
CDT...

AT 409 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM EQUALITY TO VICTORYLAND TO
FRANKLIN FIELD...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  MILSTEAD...
  TALLASSEE...
  UNION SPRINGS...
  TUSKEGEE...
  NOTASULGA...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3227 8598 3228 8592 3233 8597 3234 8599
      3242 8603 3242 8604 3275 8618 3276 8601
      3279 8574 3267 8569 3258 8570 3256 8564
      3251 8562 3213 8554 3207 8591
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 252DEG 12KT 3273 8606 3243 8593
          3213 8586

77/GLEASON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
429 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

ALZ019-021-082200-
CALHOUN AL-CLEBURNE AL-
429 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CLEBURNE AND SOUTHEASTERN
CALHOUN COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 426 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR FORT MCCLELLAN...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HEFLIN...
  CHOCCOLOCCO...
  WHITE PLAINS...
  SWEETWATER LAKE...
  COLEMAN LAKE AND CAMPGROUND...

&&

LAT...LON 3386 8557 3364 8549 3358 8579 3375 8586
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 252DEG 7KT 3369 8573

08

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