River Flood Warning 47, NWS Birmingham, AL

562 
WGUS44 KBMX 250321
FLWBMX


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 
921 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014


.THE RIVER HAS ALREADY CRESTED JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND WILL 
CONTINUE TO FALL.

&&

ALC063-065-091-107-119-250351-
/O.CAN.KBMX.FL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-141227T0200Z/
/AVLA1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
921 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

* AT  8:00 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 120.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 122.0 FEET. 
* NO FLOODING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
* IMPACT...AT 122.0 FEET...CATTLE IN LOW-LYING AREAS OF SOUTHERN 
  PICKENS COUNTY SHOULD BE MOVED TO HIGHER GROUND. CATTLE ARE CUTOFF 
  IN LOWLANDS OF SOUTHERN PICKENS COUNTY AT STAGES ABOVE 122 FEET.

&&

LAT...LON 3321 8827 3307 8816 3287 8813 3285 8822
          3301 8825 3320 8832         

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
605 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS FINALLY ON THE MOVE THIS MORNING...CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR THE MS/AL STATE LINE. THE FRONT WILL GAIN FORWARD
SPEED THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA
BY 15Z WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

CHRISTMAS DAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE VERY NICE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND SUNNY SKIES. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE.

A LARGE-SCALE PATTERN CHANGE IS SET TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY.
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO
THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN
THIS SCENARIO. UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH POSSIBLY ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT MOISTURE FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN IS
NOT VERY HIGH AS MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

THE MAIN STORY BY TUESDAY COULD BE THE APPROACH OF A POTENTIALLY
MAJOR ARCTIC FRONT AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR AREA. DECIDED NOT
TO INTRODUCE ANY FROZEN PRECIP INTO THE FORECAST JUST YET...BUT
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN DEPICTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
LOOKING QUITE INTERESTING TO SAY THE LEAST.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LARGE RAIN SWATH NOW PUSHING EAST OF ALL TERMINALS. BEHIND THE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...AN AREA OF LOW CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
EXTENDS BACK TO THE WEST...INTO MISSISSIPPI. HAVE BASED PREVAILING
CONDITIONS ON THE EXPECTATION THAT LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE WILL
OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH IFR CIGS. FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...SO WIND SHIFT WILL BE SLOWER
THAN WHAT EARLIER GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING. WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST...WINDS AND CIGS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY. WILL
MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     55  36  51  29  57 /  60  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    57  37  53  31  59 /  60  10   0   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  56  37  54  35  58 /  40  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  56  36  56  35  60 /  20   0   0   0  10
CALERA      58  37  54  35  59 /  30   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      60  37  55  35  58 /  80   0   0   0   0
MONTGOMERY  59  36  57  35  63 /  50   0   0   0  10
TROY        60  35  56  33  62 /  60   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

87/14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
434 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

ALZ011>015-017>050-251045-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
434 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.