Red Flag Warning 22, NWS Birmingham, AL

Autauga County, AL, Barbour County, AL, Bibb County, AL, Blount County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Calhoun County, AL, Chambers County, AL, Cherokee County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Clay County, AL, Cleburne County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Dallas County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Etowah County, AL, Fayette County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lamar County, AL, Lee County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Macon County, AL, Marengo County, AL, Marion County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Pike County, AL, Randolph County, AL, Russell County, AL, Shelby County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Walker County, AL, Winston County, AL

075 
WWUS84 KBMX 162102
RFWBMX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
402 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

...A DRY AIR MASS ACROSS ALABAMA WILL CREATE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON...

ALZ011>015-017>050-162300-
/O.CON.KBMX.FW.W.0022.000000T0000Z-140416T2300Z/
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
402 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...WILL BE FROM THE EAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WILL DROP AS LOW AS 27 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER 
  CONDITIONS. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE FIRE CONDITIONS...PLEASE
CONTACT THE ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION AT
WWW.FORESTRY.ALABAMA.GOV.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
639 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS KEEPING NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A FEW KNOTS OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SO TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN AS
QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MOST LOCATIONS ARE STILL IN THE
UPPER 30S...WITH OUR USUAL COOLER SPOTS ALREADY BELOW FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES...BUT WITH
THE WINDS...WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED...EXCEPT FOR AT
SHELTERED LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY INTO THE
60S TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY...THOUGH NOT MUCH...BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND TO THE
NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES TO THE EAST...IT WILL AMPLIFY...BRINGING AN ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE AND CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS SHORTWAVE...WITH VARYING
STRENGTHS BETWEEN MODELS. WITH THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
COAST...AND THE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA...MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND THEREFORE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOW...AND
RAIN CONVERGE WILL BE MINIMAL AS WELL. THEREFORE...DID NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS POP FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PRODUCING NICE CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA OVER THE WEEKEND.

BY THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME...MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...WITH
LITTLE TO NO AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE GFS BRINGS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SAGS
SOUTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ROUGHLY 24 HOURS
AFTER THE GFS. WITH THE HIGH DISCREPANCIES...DID NOT INCREASE POPS
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NICE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ACROSS THE AREA.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND SHOULD SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST OR SOUTHEAST
BY THE AFTERNOON.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
754 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

ALZ011>015-017>050-170300-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
754 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON A FEW SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA RIVERS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON A FEW CENTRAL ALABAMA RIVERS...PERHAPS
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ADDITIONAL RISES ARE OCCURRING DUE TO
RECENT RAINS. FLOODING IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ON THE LOWER
TOMBIGBEE...LOWER BLACK WARRIOR...SUCARNOOCHEE...AND LOWER CAHABA
RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR
SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.