Red Flag Warning 15, NWS Birmingham, AL

Autauga County, AL, Barbour County, AL, Bibb County, AL, Blount County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Calhoun County, AL, Chambers County, AL, Cherokee County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Clay County, AL, Cleburne County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Dallas County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Etowah County, AL, Fayette County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lamar County, AL, Lee County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Macon County, AL, Marengo County, AL, Marion County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Pike County, AL, Randolph County, AL, Russell County, AL, Shelby County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Walker County, AL, Winston County, AL

602 
WWUS84 KBMX 281023
RFWBMX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
423 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY...

ALZ011>015-017>050-010000-
/O.CON.KBMX.FW.W.0015.140228T1700Z-140301T0000Z/
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
423 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM CST THIS EVENING. 

* WINDS...WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WILL DROP AS LOW AS 19 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...OF A DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
  CONDITIONS. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS AND OR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE FIRE CONDITIONS...PLEASE
CONTACT THE ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION AT
WWW.FORESTRY.ALABAMA.GOV.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
322 PM CST THU FEB 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING AGAIN TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS OVER ALABAMA TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH
WARMER THAN THURSDAY...BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE. SOME MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF. DESPITE A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM...THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF LIFT AND IT WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE TROF WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND ON SATURDAY...BUT NOT
ENOUGH AREAL COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST. THE RIDGE WILL HOLD
IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY AND KEPT RAIN FREE CONDITIONS. BY SUNDAY
EVENING A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE ARK-LA-MS AREA. AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
NORTHWEST ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION
TYPE SHOULD BE SHOWERS...BUT WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST INVOLVES RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY.
WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...
THERE SHOULD BE A SOLID BAND OF RAIN ALONG AND BEHIND FRONT...AND
RAISED RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL. AGAIN...THE AIR
MASS IS RELATIVELY STABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY SEVERE WORDING. A RAPID
DRYING TREND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH RETURN OF COLDER AIR...BUT
NOT AS COLD AS THE CURRENT COLD SNAP. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME RAIN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS MODEL HAS THE SHORT WAVE TROF MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF MODEL...AND IT KEEPS THE RAIN MOSTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE ECMWF MODEL BRINGS THE RAIN
FARTHER NORTH...AND FOR NOW WILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN IN FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD
AIR INTRUSIONS DURING THIS PERIOD FOR THERE TO BE WINTER WEATHER
CONCERNS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. NORTHERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER 7 KTS BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET AND
SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

05/MA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH FRIDAY.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING HUMIDITY VALUES UP ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     21  54  36  63  44 /   0  10  30  10  10
ANNISTON    24  55  37  65  45 /   0  10  20  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  26  57  42  67  52 /   0  10  30  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  25  59  41  71  51 /   0  10  30  10  10
CALERA      27  58  41  67  49 /   0  10  20  10  10
AUBURN      29  57  38  65  48 /   0   0  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  28  60  41  71  48 /   0   0  10   0  10
TROY        24  59  38  70  47 /   0   0  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
558 PM CST THU FEB 27 2014

ALZ011>015-017>050-010000-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
558 PM CST THU FEB 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A DRY AIR MASS WILL CREATE A HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OUTDOOR BURNING IS DISCOURAGED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

08/MK