Freeze Warning 6, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1149 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE FIRST
FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL LET THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING
PLAY ITSELF OUT...ASSESS LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING...AND THEN EVALUATE
THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS LATER THIS MORNING.

WE SHOULD SEE LOTS OF SUNSHINE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. COLD ADVECTION IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM HAS
CEASED...AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO MODERATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL.

MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL IDEA OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING
HERE MID-WEEK. THERE WERE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODELS...WITH THE 00Z GFS A BIT QUICKER WITH THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND GEM. THE 06Z RUN
OF THE GFS (AND THE NAM NOW TOO...NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS COMING
WITHIN ITS FORECAST RANGE) LEND ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE SLOWER
SOLUTION. AND THAT MAKES SENSE...SINCE THE MODELS OFTEN ARE TOO
FAST WITH SYSTEMS SUCH AS THIS. GIVEN THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
THE SLOWER SOLUTION...I'VE DELAYED THE TIME OF ARRIVAL AND
INCREASED THE MAGNITUDE OF THE PEAK POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THERE'S STILL VERY LITTLE (IF ANY) INSTABILITY INDICATED
IN THE MODELS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH SHOWERS (SANS THUNDER).

THE MAIN RAIN BAND SHOULD MOVE OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY ON THURSDAY.
THERE DOES REMAIN SOME QUESTION ON THE AMOUNT OF WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND HOW LOW HEIGHTS FALL AS THE
UPPER TROUGH BOTTOMS OUT. EARLIER SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF THAT
SHOWED A LOW BECOMING CUT OFF APPEAR TO BE DUE TO ITS BIAS OF
DOING THAT...AND THE MEDIUM/LONG RANGE MODELS TEND TO AGREE NOW
THAT THE EASTERN STATES TROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO AVIATION CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR TOMORROW. ALL
ELEMENTS VFR.

88

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
207 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014

ALZ011>015-017>050-032015-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
207 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK FOR WILDFIRES THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. OUTDOOR BURNING IS DISCOURAGED.

TEMPERATURES MAY ONCE AGAIN GO TO OR BELOW FREEZING AGAIN TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
MANY OF THE OTHER AREAS AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH FIRE DANGER MAY BE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.