Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1219 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS THIS EVENING...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TONIGHT. THIS INCLUDES
THE RISK FOR TORNADOES...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG ACROSS
OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST...THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT...IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS EXPECTED.
AS OF 02Z...THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR ITS LOCATION IS FROM MCCOMB IN
MISSISSIPPI...TO EVERGREEN...TO MARIANNA FLORIDA. SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT CONVECTION WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO BE SURFACE
BASED...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING RISK FOR TORNADOES DUE TO
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND VERY FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS. FOR AN
IDEA OF WHAT'S HEADED OUR WAY...TAKE A LOOK AT THE 00Z SOUNDING
FROM JACKSON MISSISSIPPI. 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS...0-3 KM BULK
SHEAR OF OF 60 KTS...AND A STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILE IN THE
LOW LEVELS ARE ALL PRESENT. THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED...AS THE WIND
SHEAR WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS NEVER IN DOUBT.

THE INSTABILITY WAS IN QUESTION...HOWEVER. SBCAPE REMAINS CONFINED
TO THE GULF COAST AREAS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA.
BUT DUE TO THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD...EXPECT SBCAPE TO
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA. WE WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHING THE INCREASE IN SURFACE DEW
POINTS OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA. FOR EXAMPLE...MOBILE HAS A DEW POINT
OF 70 AT 02Z. THAT JUICY AIRMASS IS COMING TOWARDS DEMOPOLIS AND
SELMA.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS OVER THE AREA THANKS TO COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST PIVOTS OVER TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
AND ASSUMES A NEGATIVE TILT OVERNIGHT AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD.
MUCAPE OF ~500 J/KG WILL BE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING ELEVATED
SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT IS WHEN I'M THINKING THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL
REALLY RAMP UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
MOVES OVER THAT AREA. FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN AS TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN COMING OUT OF
MISSISSIPPI PRODUCE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT QUITE
A FEW FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED OVERNIGHT.

SO IN SUMMARY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OUR OVERALL THINKING FROM THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS...SURFACE WINDS...AND RAINFALL RATES
WILL BE THE KEY THINGS TO WATCH OVERNIGHT.

77/GLEASON

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONTINUED WITH A PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD AND WILL
REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING AT THE
TAIL END OF THE FORECAST SO LOOK FORWARD TO THAT. AMENDMENTS WILL
BE MADE IF TIMING NEEDS TO BE ADJUSTED.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  43  61  44  64 / 100  20  60  40   0
ANNISTON    69  43  61  43  65 / 100  20  50  40   0
BIRMINGHAM  68  43  61  43  64 / 100  10  70  40   0
TUSCALOOSA  69  44  63  44  67 /  80  10  70  40   0
CALERA      68  44  61  44  65 / 100  10  70  40   0
AUBURN      71  45  61  44  66 / 100  30  50  40   0
MONTGOMERY  72  46  64  46  68 / 100  20  70  40   0
TROY        73  47  63  45  67 / 100  30  60  40   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
701 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

ALZ011>015-017>050-080015-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
701 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL RETURN THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND FLOODING. THE SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...AND LAST UNTIL AROUND NOON MONDAY FOR SOUTHEAST
CENTRAL ALABAMA. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH 7 AM WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A HAMILTON...TO ALABASTER...TO UNION SPRINGS LINE.

A STRONG TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
ALICEVILLE...TO CENTREVILLE...TO MONTGOMERY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE PAST SUNRISE MONDAY
THROUGH AROUND NOONTIME AS THE STORM SYSTEM PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE MAIN THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND FLOODING. THE MAIN THREAT
AREAS WILL SHIFT EAST TO GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
ROCKFORD TO MONTGOMERY LINE THROUGH MIDDAY.

AS THIS WILL BE A PROLONGED RAIN EVENT...THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ISSUES...AS WELL AS RISES ON AREA RIVERS.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE GENERALLY 3 TO 4 INCHES...
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SOME OF THE RISES ON RIVERS COULD
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING AFTER THE RAIN ENDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED THIS EVENING AND INTO MONDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
317 AM CDT MON APR 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ALABASTER               33.25N 86.82W
04/07/2014                   SHELBY             AL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            BUCK CREEK HAS RISEN ABOVE BANK FULL. WATERS APPROACHING
            6TH AVE.

&&

HA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
321 AM CDT MON APR 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NE BIRMINGHAM         33.55N 86.78W
04/07/2014                   JEFFERSON          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING AT TALLAPOOSA ST AT I-20/59, NEAR VILLAGE CREEK.

&&

HA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
347 AM CDT MON APR 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TARRANT                 33.59N 86.77W
04/07/2014                   JEFFERSON          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SPRINGDALE RD DOWN TO ONE LANE DUE TO WATER RISING ABOVE
            BANK FULL AT VILLAGE CREEK.

&&

HA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
413 AM CDT MON APR 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HOMEWOOD                33.46N 86.81W
04/07/2014                   JEFFERSON          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EVACUATIONS AND WATER RESCUES ONGOING AT LAKESHORE GARDEN
            APTS. WATER GETTING INTO GROUND FLOOR APTS.

&&

HA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
419 AM CDT MON APR 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TARRANT                 33.59N 86.77W
04/07/2014                   JEFFERSON          AL   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED IN TARRANT DUE TO VILLAGE CREEK
            RISING ABOVE BANK FULL, INCLUDING ALABAMA ST, MISSISSIPPI
            ST

&&

HA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
421 AM CDT MON APR 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 ESE HOOVER            33.36N 86.73W
04/07/2014                   SHELBY             AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MOBILE HOME PARK ON HWY 119 SURROUNDED BY RISING WATER.
            RESIDENTS ARE BEING EVACUATED.

&&

HA